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Playing against Nature: causal discovery for decision making under uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider decision problems under uncertainty where the options available to a decision maker and the resulting outcome are related through a causal mechanism which is unknown to the decision maker. We ask how a decision maker can learn about this causal mechanism through sequential decision making as well as using current causal knowledge inside each round in order to make better choices had she not considered causal knowledge and propose a decision making procedure in which an agent holds \textit{beliefs} about her environment which are used to make a choice and are updated using the observed outcome. As proof of concept, we present an implementation of this causal decision making model and apply it in a simple scenario. We show that the model achieves a performance similar to the classic Q-learning while it also acquires a causal model of the environment.


Coopetitive Soft Gating Ensemble

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this article, we proposed the Coopetititve Soft Gating Ensemble or CSGE for general machine learning tasks. The goal of machine learning is to create models which poses a high generalisation capability. But often problems are too complex to be solved by a single model. Therefore, ensemble methods combine predictions of multiple models. The CSGE comprises a comprehensible combination based on three different aspects relating to the overall global historical performance, the local-/situation-dependent and time-dependent performance of its ensemble members. The CSGE can be optimised according to arbitrary loss functions making it accessible for a wider range of problems. We introduce a novel training procedure including a hyper-parameter initialisation at its heart. We show that the CSGE approach reaches state-of-the-art performance for both classification and regression tasks. Still, the CSGE allows to quantify the influence of all base estimators by means of the three weighting aspects in a comprehensive way. In terms of Organic computing (OC), our CSGE approach combines multiple base models towards a self-organising complex system. Moreover, we provide a scikit-learn compatible implementation.


Modular Vehicle Control for Transferring Semantic Information to Unseen Weather Conditions using GANs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

End-to-end supervised learning has shown promising results for self-driving cars, particularly under conditions for which it was trained. However, it may not necessarily perform well under unseen conditions. In this paper, we demonstrate how knowledge can be transferred from one weather condition for which semantic labels and steering commands are available to a completely new set of conditions for which we have no access to labeled data. The problem is addressed by dividing the task of vehicle control into independent perception and control modules, such that changing one does not affect the other. We train the control module only on the data for the available condition and keep it fixed even under new conditions. The perception module is then used as an interface between the new weather conditions and this control model. The perception module in turn is trained using semantic labels, which we assume are already available for the same weather condition on which the control model was trained. However, obtaining them for other conditions is a tedious and error-prone process. Therefore, we propose to use a generative adversarial network (GAN)-based model to retrieve the semantic information for the new conditions in an unsupervised manner. We introduce a master-servant architecture, where the master model (semantic labels available) trains the servant model (semantic labels not available). The servant model can then be used for steering the vehicle without retraining the control module.


Approximate Survey Propagation for Statistical Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Approximate message passing algorithm enjoyed considerable attention in the last decade. In this paper we introduce a variant of the AMP algorithm that takes into account glassy nature of the system under consideration. We coin this algorithm as the approximate survey propagation (ASP) and derive it for a class of low-rank matrix estimation problems. We derive the state evolution for the ASP algorithm and prove that it reproduces the one-step replica symmetry breaking (1RSB) fixed-point equations, well-known in physics of disordered systems. Our derivation thus gives a concrete algorithmic meaning to the 1RSB equations that is of independent interest. We characterize the performance of ASP in terms of convergence and mean-squared error as a function of the free Parisi parameter s. We conclude that when there is a model mismatch between the true generative model and the inference model, the performance of AMP rapidly degrades both in terms of MSE and of convergence, while ASP converges in a larger regime and can reach lower errors. Among other results, our analysis leads us to a striking hypothesis that whenever s (or other parameters) can be set in such a way that the Nishimori condition $M=Q>0$ is restored, then the corresponding algorithm is able to reach mean-squared error as low as the Bayes-optimal error obtained when the model and its parameters are known and exactly matched in the inference procedure.


Hierarchical VampPrior Variational Fair Auto-Encoder

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decision making is a process that is extremely prone to different biases. In this paper we consider learning fair representations that aim at removing nuisance (sensitive) information from the decision process. For this purpose, we propose to use deep generative modeling and adapt a hierarchical Variational Auto-Encoder to learn these fair representations. Moreover, we utilize the mutual information as a useful regularizer for enforcing fairness of a representation. In experiments on two benchmark datasets and two scenarios where the sensitive variables are fully and partially observable, we show that the proposed approach either outperforms or performs on par with the current best model.


COTA: Improving the Speed and Accuracy of Customer Support through Ranking and Deep Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For a company looking to provide delightful user experiences, it is of paramount importance to take care of any customer issues. This paper proposes COTA, a system to improve speed and reliability of customer support for end users through automated ticket classification and answers selection for support representatives. Two machine learning and natural language processing techniques are demonstrated: one relying on feature engineering (COTA v1) and the other exploiting raw signals through deep learning architectures (COTA v2). COTA v1 employs a new approach that converts the multi-classification task into a ranking problem, demonstrating significantly better performance in the case of thousands of classes. For COTA v2, we propose an Encoder-Combiner-Decoder, a novel deep learning architecture that allows for heterogeneous input and output feature types and injection of prior knowledge through network architecture choices. This paper compares these models and their variants on the task of ticket classification and answer selection, showing model COTA v2 outperforms COTA v1, and analyzes their inner workings and shortcomings. Finally, an A/B test is conducted in a production setting validating the real-world impact of COTA in reducing issue resolution time by 10 percent without reducing customer satisfaction.


Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Fair Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current methodologies in machine learning analyze the effects of various statistical parity notions of fairness primarily in light of their impacts on predictive accuracy and vendor utility loss. In this paper, we propose a new framework for interpreting the effects of fairness criteria by converting the constrained loss minimization problem into a social welfare maximization problem. This translation moves a classifier and its output into utility space where individuals, groups, and society at-large experience different welfare changes due to classification assignments. Under this characterization, predictions and fairness constraints are seen as shaping societal welfare and distribution and revealing individuals' implied welfare weights in society-- weights that may then be interpreted through a fairness lens. The social welfare formulation of the fairness problem brings to the fore concerns of distributive justice that have always had a central albeit more implicit role in standard algorithmic fairness approaches.


Adversarial Robustness Toolbox v0.2.2

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adversarial examples have become an indisputable threat to the security of modern AI systems based on deep neural networks (DNNs). The Adversarial Robustness Toolbox (ART) is a Python library designed to support researchers and developers in creating novel defence techniques, as well as in deploying practical defences of real-world AI systems. Researchers can use ART to benchmark novel defences against the state-of-the-art. For developers, the library provides interfaces which support the composition of comprehensive defence systems using individual methods as building blocks. The Adversarial Robustness Toolbox supports machine learning models (and deep neural networks (DNNs) specifically) implemented in any of the most popular deep learning frameworks (TensorFlow, Keras, PyTorch). Currently, the library is primarily intended to improve the adversarial robustness of visual recognition systems, however, future releases that will comprise adaptations to other data modes (such as speech, text or time series) are envisioned. The ART source code is released (https://github.com/IBM/adversarial-robustness-toolbox) under an MIT license. The release includes code examples and extensive documentation (http://adversarial-robustness-toolbox.readthedocs.io) to help researchers and developers get quickly started.


Training behavior of deep neural network in frequency domain

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Why deep neural networks (DNNs) capable of overfitting often generalize well in practice is a mystery in deep learning. Existing works indicate that this observation holds for both complicated real datasets and simple datasets of one-dimensional (1-d) functions. In this work, for general low-frequency dominant 1-d functions, we find that a DNN with common settings first quickly captures the dominant low-frequency components, and then relatively slowly captures high-frequency ones. We call this phenomenon Frequency Principle (F-Principle). F-Principle can be observed over various DNN setups of different activation functions, layer structures and training algorithms in our experiments. F-Principle can be used to understand (i) the behavior of DNN training in the information plane and (ii) why DNNs often generalize well albeit its ability of overfitting. This F-Principle potentially can provide insights into understanding the general principle underlying DNN optimization and generalization for real datasets.


Efficient ConvNets for Analog Arrays

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Analog arrays are a promising upcoming hardware technology with the potential to drastically speed up deep learning. Their main advantage is that they compute matrix-vector products in constant time, irrespective of the size of the matrix. However, early convolution layers in ConvNets map very unfavorably onto analog arrays, because kernel matrices are typically small and the constant time operation needs to be sequentially iterated a large number of times, reducing the speed up advantage for ConvNets. Here, we propose to replicate the kernel matrix of a convolution layer on distinct analog arrays, and randomly divide parts of the compute among them, so that multiple kernel matrices are trained in parallel. With this modification, analog arrays execute ConvNets with an acceleration factor that is proportional to the number of kernel matrices used per layer (here tested 16-128). Despite having more free parameters, we show analytically and in numerical experiments that this convolution architecture is self-regularizing and implicitly learns similar filters across arrays. We also report superior performance on a number of datasets and increased robustness to adversarial attacks. Our investigation suggests to revise the notion that mixed analog-digital hardware is not suitable for ConvNets.