Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, its recipients, and its nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features (e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

We contribute to a better understanding of the class of functions that is represented by a neural network with ReLU activations and a given architecture. Using techniques from mixed-integer optimization, polyhedral theory, and tropical geometry, we provide a mathematical counterbalance to the universal approximation theorems which suggest that a single hidden layer is sufficient for learning tasks. In particular, we investigate whether the class of exactly representable functions strictly increases by adding more layers (with no restrictions on size). This problem has potential impact on algorithmic and statistical aspects because of the insight it provides into the class of functions represented by neural hypothesis classes. However, to the best of our knowledge, this question has not been investigated in the neural network literature. We also present upper bounds on the sizes of neural networks required to represent functions in these neural hypothesis classes.

We present a PAC-Bayes-style generalization bound which enables the replacement of the KL-divergence with a variety of Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). We provide instances of this bound with the IPM being the total variation metric and the Wasserstein distance. A notable feature of the obtained bounds is that they naturally interpolate between classical uniform convergence bounds in the worst case (when the prior and posterior are far away from each other), and improved bounds in favorable cases (when the posterior and prior are close). This illustrates the possibility of reinforcing classical generalization bounds with algorithm-and data-dependent components, thus making them more suitable to analyze algorithms that use a large hypothesis space.

Large language models have recently shown a remarkable ability for few-shot learning, including patterns of algorithmic nature. However, it is still an open question to determine what kind of patterns these models can capture and how many examples they need in their prompts. We frame this question as a teaching problem with strong priors, and study whether language models can identify simple algorithmic concepts from small witness sets. In particular, we explore how several GPT architectures, program induction systems and humans perform in terms of the complexity of the concept and the number of additional examples, and how much their behaviour differs. This first joint analysis of language models and machine teaching can address key questions for artificial intelligence and machine learning, such as whether some strong priors, and Occam's razor in particular, can be distilled from data, making learning from a few examples possible.

Impactful applications such as materials discovery, hardware design, neural architecture search, or portfolio optimization require optimizing high-dimensional black-box functions with mixed and combinatorial input spaces. While Bayesian optimization has recently made significant progress in solving such problems, an in-depth analysis reveals that the current state-of-the-art methods are not reliable. Their performances degrade substantially when the unknown optima of the function do not have a certain structure. To fill the need for a reliable algorithm for combinatorial and mixed spaces, this paper proposes Bounce that relies on a novel map of various variable types into nested embeddings of increasing dimensionality. Comprehensive experiments show that Bounce reliably achieves and often even improves upon state-of-the-art performance on a variety of high-dimensional problems.