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Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

One of the dominant paradigms in self-supervised learning (SSL), illustrated by MoCo or DINO, aims to produce robust representations by capturing features that are insensitive to certain image transformations such as illumination, or geometric changes. This strategy is appropriate when the objective is to recognize objects independently of their appearance. However, it becomes counterproductive as soon as appearance itself constitutes the discriminative signal. In weather analysis, for example, rain streaks, snow granularity, atmospheric scattering, as well as reflections and halos, are not noise: they carry the essential information. In critical applications such as autonomous driving, ignoring these cues is risky, since grip and visibility depend directly on ground conditions and atmospheric conditions. We introduce ST-STORM, a hybrid SSL framework that treats appearance (style) as a semantic modality to be disentangled from content. Our architecture explicitly separates two latent streams, regulated by gating mechanisms. The Content branch aims at a stable semantic representation through a JEPA scheme coupled with a contrastive objective, promoting invariance to appearance variations. In parallel, the Style branch is constrained to capture appearance signatures (textures, contrasts, scattering) through feature prediction and reconstruction under an adversarial constraint. We evaluate ST-STORM on several tasks, including object classification (ImageNet-1K), fine-grained weather characterization, and melanoma detection (ISIC 2024 Challenge). The results show that the Style branch effectively isolates complex appearance phenomena (F1=97% on Multi-Weather and F1=94% on ISIC 2024 with 10% labeled data), without degrading the semantic performance (F1=80% on ImageNet-1K) of the Content branch, and improves the preservation of critical appearance


Beyond Augmented-Action Surrogates for Multi-Expert Learning-to-Defer

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Existing multi-expert learning-to-defer surrogates are statistically consistent, yet they can underfit, suppress useful experts, or degrade as the expert pool grows. We trace these failures to a shared architectural choice: casting classes and experts as actions inside one augmented prediction geometry. Consistency governs the population target; it says nothing about how the surrogate distributes gradient mass during training. We analyze five surrogates along both axes and show that each trades a fix on one for a failure on the other. We then introduce a decoupled surrogate that estimates the class posterior with a softmax and each expert utility with an independent sigmoid. It admits an $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bound whose constant is $J$-independent for fixed per-expert weight $β{=}λ/J$, and its gradients are free of the amplification, starvation, and coupling pathologies of the augmented family. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10H, and Covertype confirm that the decoupled surrogate is the only method that avoids amplification under redundancy, preserves rare specialists, and consistently improves over a standalone classifier across all settings.


Phase transitions in Doi-Onsager, Noisy Transformer, and other multimodal models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study phase transitions for repulsive-attractive mean-field free energies on the circle. For a $\frac{1}{n+1}$-periodic interaction whose Fourier coefficients satisfy a certain decay condition, we prove that the critical coupling strength $K_c$ coincides with the linear stability threshold $K_\#$ of the uniform distribution and that the phase transition is continuous, in the sense that the uniform distribution is the unique global minimizer at criticality. The proof is based on a sharp coercivity estimate for the free energy obtained from the constrained Lebedev--Milin inequality. We apply this result to three motivating models for which the exact value of the phase transition and its (dis)continuity in terms of the model parameters was not fully known. For the two-dimensional Doi--Onsager model $W(θ)=-|\sin(2πθ)|$, we prove that the phase transition is continuous at $K_c=K_\#=3π/4$. For the noisy transformer model $W_β(θ)=(e^{β\cos(2πθ)}-1)/β$, we identify the sharp threshold $β_*$ such that $K_c(β) = K_\#(β)$ and the phase transition is continuous for $β\leq β_*$, while $K_c(β) β_*$. We also obtain the corresponding sharp dichotomy for the noisy Hegselmann--Krause model $W_{R}(θ) = (R-2π|θ|)_{+}^2$ .


Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In multi-fidelity optimization, biased approximations of varying costs of the target function are available. This paper studies the problem of optimizing a locally smooth function with a limited budget, where the learner has to make a tradeoff between the cost and the bias of these approximations. We first prove lower bounds for the simple regret under different assumptions on the fidelities, based on a cost-to-bias function. We then present the Kometo algorithm which achieves, with additional logarithmic factors, the same rates without any knowledge of the function smoothness and fidelity assumptions, and improves previously proven guarantees. We finally empirically show that our algorithm outperforms previous multi-fidelity optimization methods without the knowledge of problem-dependent parameters.


Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal selection (CS) uses calibration data to identify test inputs whose unobserved outcomes are likely to satisfy a pre-specified minimal quality requirement, while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Existing methods fix the target FDR level before observing data, which prevents the user from adapting the balance between number of selected test inputs and FDR to downstream needs and constraints based on the available data. For example, in genomics or neuroimaging, researchers often inspect the distribution of test statistics, and decide how aggressively to pursue candidates based on observed evidence strength and available follow-up resources. To address this limitation, we introduce {post-hoc CS} (PH-CS), which generates a path of candidate selection sets, each paired with a data-driven false discovery proportion (FDP) estimate. PH-CS lets the user select any operating point on this path by maximizing a user-specified utility, arbitrarily balancing selection size and FDR. Building on conformal e-variables and the e-Benjamini-Hochberg (e-BH) procedure, PH-CS is proved to provide a finite-sample post-hoc reliability guarantee whereby the ratio between estimated FDP level and true FDP is, on average, upper bounded by $1$, so that the average estimated FDP is, to first order, a valid upper bound on the true FDR. PH-CS is extended to control quality defined in terms of a general risk. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that, unlike CS, PH-CS can consistently satisfy user-imposed utility constraints while producing reliable FDP estimates and maintaining competitive FDR control.


Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.


Why spring smells like semen and rotting fish

Popular Science

More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. While beautiful, Bradford pear trees also stink. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. The sun is out, the streets are humming, the days are getting longer, and the air smells like like um say, can anyone else smell that? All over America, spring is getting smellier every year, and the culprit is the Bradford pear, a tree that gained popularity in the mid-20 century for its ornamental properties.


How a fiery attack on Sam Altman's home unfolded

The Guardian

Sam Altman speaks during the BlackRock infrastructure summit on 11 March in Washington DC. Sam Altman speaks during the BlackRock infrastructure summit on 11 March in Washington DC. How a fiery attack on Sam Altman's home unfolded Molotov cocktail attack on OpenAI CEO's home comes amid growing discontent against artificial intelligence I n the early hours of 10 April, a man approached the gate of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's house in San Francisco and hurled a molotov cocktail at the building before fleeing. Federal and California state authorities have charged Moreno-Gama with a range of crimes including attempted arson and attempted murder. His parents issued a statement this week saying that their son had recently suffered a mental health crisis.


Cyberpunk platformers, gallivanting geckos and other new indie games worth checking out

Engadget

Plus, Mouse: PI for Hire arrives and Hades 2 hits PS5 and Xbox Series X/S. Welcome to our latest roundup of what's going on in the indie game space. Once again, there are some neat new games for you to check out this weekend. We've got a bunch of updates and announcements for upcoming titles to tell you about too. There have been a bunch of solid indie showcases lately (and highlights from another one to tell you about below).


Iron Woman! I tested a Marvel-style exoskeleton - so, can it really turn me into an athlete?

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, was behind wheel when four friends died in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Kate and William join Charles and Camilla in celebrating British centenarians at Buckingham Palace as Royal Family marks the late Queen's 100th birthday US troops board second tanker as Trump accuses Iran of violating ceasefire'numerous times' - Live updates AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING'You who have come from Europe are not going to return - I will sacrifice you': Chilling rant to tourists by Mexican pyramid gunman before he killed one and wounded seven others Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger Even Cameron Diaz admits she's a dirty mess. I'll get hate for saying it, but we're all thinking the same thing about THAT wrinkled forehead: CAROLINE BULLOCK I tested a Marvel-style exoskeleton - so, can it really turn me into an athlete?