Traditional multi-population models, such as the Li-Lee framework, rely on the assumption of mean-reverting country-specific deviations. However, recent data from high-longevity clusters suggest a systemic break in this paradigm. We identify a stationarity paradox where mortality residuals in countries like Sweden and West Germany exhibit persistent unit roots, leading to a systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models. To address these non-linearities, we propose Hybrid-Lift, a neural-actuarial framework that combines Hierarchical LSTM networks with a Mean-Bias Correction (MBC) anchoring mechanism. Positioned as a governance-friendly model challenger rather than a replacement of classical approaches, the framework exhibits selective superiority on out-of-sample validation (2012-2020): it outperforms Li-Lee by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany, while remaining comparable for near-linear regimes such as Switzerland and Japan. We complement the predictive model with an integrated governance suite comprising SHAP-based cross-country influence mapping, a dual uncertainty framework for regulatory capital calibration (Swiss ES 99.0% of +1.153 years), and a reverse stress test identifying the critical shock threshold for solvency buffer exhaustion. This research provides evidence that neural networks, when properly anchored by actuarial principles, can serve as effective model challengers for longevity risk management under the SST and Solvency II standards.

We study online prediction under distribution shift, where inputs arrive chronologically and outcomes are revealed only after prediction. In this setting, predictors must remain stable in quiet regimes yet adapt when regimes shift, and the right adaptation memory is unknown in advance. We propose MELO (Memory-hedged Exponentially Weighted Least-Squares Online aggregation), a model-agnostic method that hedges across adaptation scales: it wraps any non-anticipating base-predictor pool with exponentially weighted least-squares (EWLS) adaptation experts at multiple forgetting factors, and aggregates raw and EWLS-adapted forecasts with MLpol which is a parameter-free online aggregation rule. Under boundedness conditions, we establish deterministic oracle inequalities showing that it competes with both the best raw predictor and the best bounded, time-varying affine combinations of the base predictions, up to a path-length-dependent tracking cost and a sublinear aggregation overhead. We evaluate MELO on French national electricity-load forecasting through the COVID-19 lockdown using no regime indicators, lockdown dates, or policy covariates. MELO reduces overall RMSE by 34.7%relative to base-only MLpol and achieves lower overall RMSE than a TabICL reference supplied with an external COVID policy-response covariate. MELO requires only lightweight per-step recursive updates without model retraining.

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input representation with geometric features derived from the stochastic differential equations of the SABR model. Unlike approaches that fully replace analytical formulas with black-box models, the proposed framework preserves the analytical backbone of the model. The hybridization operates along two complementary dimensions. First, geometry-aware variables reflecting intrinsic properties of the SABR dynamics are used as structured inputs to the network. Second, the neural network is trained to learn the residual error relative to Hagan's closed-form approximation rather than implied volatility directly. The resulting model acts as a structured residual correction to the analytical formula, retaining interpretability while capturing higher-order effects that are not included in the asymptotic expansion. Numerical experiments conducted over realistic parameter domains, as well as stressed environments, show that the method improves accuracy and robustness compared with both analytical approximations and standard neural-network approaches. Because the correction remains lightweight and structurally consistent with the underlying model, the framework is well suited for real-time pricing and calibration in practical trading environments.

A man has been charged after allegedly threatening Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor during an incident near his home on the Sandringham Estate in Norfolk. Norfolk Police earlier said a man was arrested shortly after 19:30 BST on Wednesday after officers received a report of a man a behaving in an intimidating manner in Wolferton. The Daily Telegraph reported Mountbatten-Windsor was threatened by a balaclava-clad man while out walking his dogs and fled to his car along with his security. Alex Jenkinson, 39, of Stowmarket, Suffolk, has been remanded in custody and is due to appear at Norwich Magistrates' Court on Friday. Police said he has been charged with two counts of using threatening, abusive or insulting words or behaviour to harass someone or cause alarm or distress and failing to provide a specimen of blood in custody.

Days before the cruise ship affected by a hantavirus outbreak is set to dock in southern Tenerife in the Canary Islands, locals are expressing a mix of concern and calm. According to Oceanwide Expeditions, there are currently no symptomatic individuals on board the ship. Iran's president says he has spoken to the country's Supreme Leader

Here's What You Need to Know About the Hantavirus While the outbreak aboard a cruise ship in the Atlantic is concerning, the virus isn't easily transmitted through casual contact. Cruises are so closely associated with illness that the highly contagious norovirus is commonly called the "cruise ship virus." But a ship headed for Spain's Canary Islands has attracted global attention due to a rare outbreak of hantavirus that's left three dead. While alarming, health officials and infectious disease experts say the risk to the general public right now is low because hantavirus is less contagious than other respiratory diseases like the coronavirus responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic . "This is not Covid, this is not influenza. It spreads very, very differently," Maria Van Kerkhove, director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention at the World Health Organization, said at a press conference on Thursday.

President Trump on $1,000 World Cup ticket prices: 'I wouldn't pay it either, to be honest' Pirates vs. Diamondbacks betting preview targets the under as both offenses go cold in series Former LSU coach Brian Kelly uses AI to prepare for job interviews, proving he's just like the rest of us Newsom office source responds to planned protest against trans athlete at state playoff girls' track meet Framber Valdez gets what he deserves for punk move, suspended six games after drilling Boston's Trevor Story MLB's new automated strike zone has a hidden feature helping umpires become more accurate than ever'This can touch anyone': Gorman family speaks following loss of Sheridan'Project Freedom' could soon resume: Report Iranian people are not citizens, but'subjects' of the regime: Middle East expert Vice Admiral Robert Harward weighs in on restarting'Project Freedom' in Strait of Hormuz Largest teachers' union accused of antisemitism in federal civil rights complaint McEnany's URGENT plea: 'Be Spencer Pratt!' WHO doesn't expect large Hantavirus outbreak US blockade keeps stranglehold on Iran's economy The Panthers star told Pat McAfee the U.S. is heading to Switzerland to win, not for a vacation If anyone thought Team USA was satisfied with Olympic gold and ready to coast through the rest of the international hockey calendar, Matthew Tkachuk has a message. The Florida Panthers star joined The Pat McAfee Show on Thursday and discussed his plan to play for Team USA at the 2026 IIHF World Championship in Switzerland. USA Hockey's preliminary roster, announced May 7, includes Tkachuk for the first time, since the Panthers failed to reach the NHL playoffs this season. The tournament begins May 15 in Zurich and Fribourg, and the Americans are trying to win back-to-back gold medals at the event for the first time ever. Tkachuk made his mindset pretty clear.

'The odds of finding something like this are minimal.' More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Heavy wear suggests the scabbard's original sword wasn't ceremonial, but frequently wielded. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. A hiker who paused to examine an old, uprooted tree found something much rarer than roots during a recent walk in the hills of Norway.

Doctor's awful mistake led to five days of agony, amputation and eventual death for promising young high school graduate, 18, $100m lawsuit alleges I was so fat I needed two plane seats. Then I lost 208lbs and kept it off for 10 YEARS using'nature's Ozempic' supplement. It was so effortlessly effective... and I could even still eat chocolate! I've discovered the perfect'type' of man that'll drive any woman crazy. The sex is so good, it's ruined every other guy for me: JANA HOCKING Leaked CIA Iran war dossier shreds Trump's boasts... as chilling intel reveals vast missile arsenal Young family were beaming picture of happiness... then affair scandal erupted and three of them were found dead Apple to pay iPhone owners $250 million settlement over claims of false advertising... see if you qualify Why this photo of Princess Charlotte has left Harry'very sad': Friends tell RICHARD EDEN all about his plan for Archie and Lili... and why Meghan has become a'challenge' Panic over SIX Americans who returned to US from deadly rat virus ship... as health officials scramble to find infected all over the world Trump's bombshell private admission sends grim warning to Netanyahu as Israel braces for reckoning Deeply personal reason Aaron Rodgers may have to suddenly retire from NFL... and forgo $15 million for mystery wife Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni's battle continues as she demands he pay legal fees for his failed defamation lawsuit days after their shock settlement Billionaire, 70, settles bitter yearslong divorce with ex-wife after shacking up with new fiancée who's almost half his age I survived hantavirus that's spreading on the cruise ship.

Powered by Gemini and designed around simplicity, the new Fitbit Air could be a compelling fitness tracker alternative to Whoop. Five years after acquiring Fitbit, and three years since it released the Charge 6, Google is finally expanding into a new phase of fitness tracking . With its screen-free design, the new Fitbit Air could be the first device to threaten Whoop's grip on this category, thanks in large part to Google's intuitive, user-friendly software. The Fitbit Air is Google's most minimalist wearable yet. There's no AMOLED display, no haptic side button, and none of the visual feedback loops that have defined Fitbit devices (and most fitness trackers) for years.