Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being asked to make economically rational decisions and indeed are already being applied to economic tasks like stock picking and financial analysis. Existing LLM benchmarks tend to focus on specific applications, making them insufficient for characterizing economic reasoning more broadly. In previous work, we offered a blueprint for comprehensively benchmarking strategic decision-making Raman et al. [2024]. However, this work did not engage with the even larger microeconomic literature on non-strategic settings. We address this gap here, taxonomizing microeconomic reasoning into 58distinct elements, each grounded in up to 10distinct domains, 5perspectives, and 3types. The generation of benchmark data across this combinatorial space is powered by a novel LLM-assisted data generation protocol that we dub auto-STEER, which generates a set of questions by adapting handwritten templates to target new domains and perspectives. By generating fresh questions for each element, auto-STEER induces diversity which could help to reduce the risk of data contamination. We use this benchmark to evaluate 27LLMs spanning a range of scales and adaptation strategies, comparing performance across multiple formats--multiple-choice and free-text question answering--and scoring schemes. Our results surface systematic limitations in current LLMs' ability to generalize economic reasoning across types, formats, and textual perturbations, and establish a foundation for evaluating and improving economic competence in foundation models.

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Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) aims to predict future trends based on historical data. While longer lookback windows theoretically offer more comprehensive insights, Transformer-based models often struggle with them. On one hand, longer windows introduce more noise and redundancy, hindering the model's learning process. On the other hand, Transformers suffer from attention dispersion and are prone to overfitting to noise, especially when processing long sequences. In this paper, we introduce the Maximum Effective Window (MEW) metric to assess a model's ability to effectively utilize the lookback window.

This paper proposes X2-DFD, an eXplainable and eXtendable framework based on multimodal large-language models (MLLMs) for deepfake detection, consisting of three key stages (see Figure 1). The first stage, Model Feature Assessment, systematically evaluates the detectability of forgery-related features for the MLLM, generating a prioritized ranking of features based on their intrinsic importance to the model. The second stage, Explainable Dataset Construction, consists of two key modules: Strong Feature Strengthening, which is designed to enhance the model's existing detection and explanation capabilities by reinforcing its well-learned features, and Weak Feature Supplementing, which addresses gaps by integrating specific feature detectors (e.g., low-level artifact analyzers) to compensate for the MLLM's limitations. The third stage, Fine-tuning and Inference, involves finetuning the MLLM on the constructed dataset and deploying it for final detection and explanation. By integrating these three stages, our approach enhances the MLLM's strengths while supplementing its weaknesses, ultimately improving both the detectability and explainability. Extensive experiments and ablations, followed by a comprehensive human study, validate the improved performance of our approach compared to the original MLLMs. More encouragingly, our framework is designed to be plug-and-play, allowing it to seamlessly integrate with future more advanced MLLMs and specific feature detectors, leading to continual improvement and extension to face the challenges of rapidly evolving deepfakes.

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Weekly quiz: How many SpaceX employees just became millionaires? This week, the White House hosted a UFC fight on its South Lawn, Royal Marines boarded a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, and a schoolgirl said she would be left staring at a wall if social media was banned for under-16s. But how much attention did you pay to what else happened in the world over the past seven days? Try last week's quiz, or have a go at something from the archives . Musk's SpaceX overtakes Amazon to become world's fifth most valuable firm For the first time, individual investors can take a stake in Elon Musk's rockets-to-AI company.

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Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods have shown promise in adapting large language models, yet existing approaches exhibit counter-intuitive phenomena: integrating either matrix decomposition or mixture-of-experts (MoE) individually decreases performance across tasks, though decomposition improves results on specific domains despite reducing parameters, while MoE increases parameter count without corresponding decrease in training efficiency. Motivated by these observations and the modular nature of PT, we propose PT-MoE, a novel framework that integrates matrix decomposition with MoE routing for efficient PT. Evaluation results across 17 datasets demonstrate that PT-MoE achieves state-of-the-art performance in both question answering (QA) and mathematical problem solving tasks, improving F1 score by 1.49 points over PT and 2.13 points over LoRA in QA tasks, while improving mathematical accuracy by 10.75 points over PT and 0.44 points over LoRA, all while using 25% fewer parameters than LoRA. Our analysis reveals that while PT methods generally excel in QA tasks and LoRA-based methods in math datasets, the integration of matrix decomposition and MoE in PT-MoE yields complementary benefits: decomposition enables efficient parameter sharing across experts while MoE provides dynamic adaptation, collectively enabling PT-MoE to demonstrate cross-task consistency and generalization abilities. These findings, along with ablation studies on routing mechanisms and architectural components, provide insights for future PEFT methods. 1

Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) promise to reduce congestion in future urban networks, potentially by optimizing their routing decisions. Unlike for human drivers, these decisions can be made with collective, data-driven policies, developed using machine learning algorithms. Reinforcement learning (RL) can facilitate the development of such collective routing strategies, yet standardized and realistic benchmarks are missing.

Modern state-space models (SSMs) often utilize structured transition matrices which enable efficient computation but pose restrictions on the model's expressivity, as measured in terms of the ability to emulate finite-state automata (FSA). While unstructured transition matrices are optimal in terms of expressivity, they come at a prohibitively high compute and memory cost, even for moderate state sizes. We propose a structured sparse parametrization of transition matrices in SSMs that enables FSA state tracking with provably optimal state size and depth, while keeping the computational cost of the recurrence comparable to that of diagonal SSMs.