Is Vladimir Putin Finally Feeling Pressure? The Russian President is facing growing domestic discontent after a series of successful attacks by the Ukrainian Army, including a major attack on Moscow. The war in Ukraine, which not long ago seemed to be turning in favor of Vladimir Putin's invading Russian Army, appears to have undergone another reversal. Thanks in part to its drone campaign, the Ukrainians have, according to some analysts, " turned the tide," putting pressure on Putin to potentially accept a ceasefire in the coming months. At the same time, there have been bubbles of discontent forming within Russia, over the cost of the war and government crackdowns on internet access. To understand what might be happening in Russia, and how the Putin regime might respond, I recently e-mailed several rounds of questions to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, and the founder of the political analysis organization R.Politik. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.

The growing interest in employing large language models (LLMs) for decision-making in social and economic contexts has raised questions about their potential to function as agents in these domains. A significant number of societal problems involve the distribution of resources, where fairness, along with economic efficiency, play a critical role in the desirability of outcomes. In this paper, we examine whether LLM responses adhere to fundamental fairness concepts such as equitability, envy-freeness, and Rawlsian maximin, and investigate their alignment with human preferences. We evaluate the performance of several LLMs, providing a comparative benchmark of their ability to reflect these measures. Our results demonstrate a lack of alignment between current LLM responses and human distributional preferences. Moreover, LLMs are unable to utilize money as a transferable resource to mitigate inequality. Nonetheless, we demonstrate a stark contrast when (some) LLMs are tasked with selecting from a predefined menu of options rather than generating one. In addition, we analyze the robustness of LLM responses to variations in semantic factors (e.g., intentions or personas) or non-semantic prompting changes (e.g., templates or orderings). Finally, we highlight potential strategies aimed at enhancing the alignment of LLM behavior with well-established fairness concepts.

Clustering tabular data remains a significant open challenge in data analysis and machine learning. Unlike for image data, similarity between tabular records often varies across datasets, making the definition of clusters highly dataset-dependent. Furthermore, the absence of supervised signals complicates hyperparameter tuning in deep learning clustering methods, frequently resulting in unstable performance. To address these issues and reduce the need for per-dataset tuning, we adopt an emerging approach in deep learning: zero-shot learning. We propose ZEUS, a selfcontained model capable of clustering new datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. It operates by decomposing complex datasets into meaningful components that can then be clustered effectively. Thanks to pre-training on synthetic datasets generated from a latent-variable prior, it generalizes across various datasets without requiring user intervention. To the best of our knowledge, ZEUS is the first zero-shot method capable of generating embeddings for tabular data in a fully unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that it performs on par with or better than traditional clustering algorithms and recent deep learning-based methods, while being significantly faster and more user-friendly.

Filtering Step Remaining Instances Raw images collected 7.5Mimages After deduplication and car detection 4.9M images Initial car bounding boxes 13.22M boxes After score/size thresholding 6.97M boxes After Qwen2.5-7B

AI systems must adapt to the evolving visual landscape, especially in domains where object appearance shifts over time. While prior work on time-aware vision models has primarily addressed commonsense-level categories, we introduce Car Models in Time (CaMiT).

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) greatly enhances large language models (LLMs) performance in knowledge-intensive tasks. However, naive RAG methods struggle with multi-hop question answering due to their limited capacity to capture complex dependencies across documents. Recent studies employ graph-based RAG to capture document connections. However, these approaches often result in a loss of semantic coherence and introduce irrelevant noise during node matching and subgraph construction. To address these limitations, we propose NeuroPath, an LLMdriven semantic path tracking RAG framework inspired by the path navigational planning of place cells in neurobiology.

Recent progress on Remote Sensing Foundation Models (RSFMs) aims toward universal representations for Earth observation imagery. However, current efforts often scale up in size significantly without addressing efficiency constraints critical for real-world applications (e.g., onboard processing, rapid disaster response) or treat multispectral (MS) data as generic imagery, overlooking valuable physical priors. We introduce PhySwin, a foundation model for MS data that integrates physical priors with computational efficiency. PhySwin combines three innovations: (i) physics-informed pretraining objectives leveraging radiometric constraints to enhance feature learning; (ii) an efficient MixMAE formulation tailored to SwinV2 for low-FLOP, scalable pretraining; and (iii) token-efficient spectral embedding to retain spectral detail without increasing token counts. Pretrained on over 1M Sentinel-2 tiles, PhySwin achieves SOTA results (+1.32% mIoU segmentation, +0.80% F1 change detection) while reducing inference latency by up to 14.4 and computational complexity by up to 43.6 compared to ViT-based RSFMs.

Precision and Recall are fundamental metrics in machine learning tasks where both accurate predictions and comprehensive coverage are essential, such as in multi-label learning, language generation, medical studies, and recommender systems. A key challenge in these settings is the prevalence of one-sided feedback, where only positive examples are observed during training--e.g., in multi-label tasks like tagging people in Facebook photos, we may observe only a few tagged individuals, without knowing who else appears in the image. To address learning under such partial feedback, we introduce a Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) framework in which hypotheses are set functions that map each input to a set of items, extending beyond single-label predictions and generalizing classical binary, multi-class, and multi-label models. Our results reveal sharp statistical and algorithmic separations from standard settings: classical methods such as Empirical Risk Minimization provably fail, even for simple hypothesis classes. We develop new algorithms that learn from positive data alone, achieving optimal sample complexity in the realizable case, and establishing multiplicative--rather than additive--approximation guarantees in the agnostic case, where achieving additive regret is impossible.

Multimodal Emotion Recognition in Conversations (MERC) enhances emotional understanding through the fusion of multimodal signals.

Current parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods have shown superior performance in continual learning. However, most existing PEFT-based methods focus on mitigating catastrophic forgetting by limiting modifications to the old task model caused by new tasks. This hinders backward knowledge transfer, as when new tasks have a strong positive correlation with old tasks, appropriately training on new tasks can transfer beneficial knowledge to old tasks. Critically, achieving backward knowledge transfer faces two fundamental challenges: (1) some parameters may be ineffective on task performance, which constrains the task solution space and model capacity; (2) since old task data are inaccessible, modeling task correlation via shared data is infeasible. To address these challenges, we propose CaLoRA, a novel causal-aware low-rank adaptation framework that is the first PEFT-based continual learning work with backward knowledge transfer. Specifically, we first propose parameter-level counterfactual attribution (PaCA) that estimates the causal effect of LoRA parameters via counterfactual reasoning, identifying effective parameters from a causal view. Second, we propose cross-task gradient adaptation (CaGA) to quantify task correlation by gradient projection and evaluate task affinity based on gradient similarity. By incorporating causal effect, task correlation, and affinity, CaGA adaptively adjusts task gradients, facilitating backward knowledge transfer without relying on data replay. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks and continual learning settings show that CaLoRA outperforms stateof-the-art methods.