Signed pairwise interaction scores fundamentally conflate uniqueness (U), redundancy (R), and synergy (S). We prove this on a minimal 3-way XOR structural causal model: faithful indices such as Shapley-Taylor return zero per pair, whereas projective indices such as Shapley Interaction spread the third-order effect into pair scalars that conflate the three mechanisms. We introduce Stochastic Hi-Fi, a post-hoc, retraining-free predictability decomposition that estimates per-feature U/R/S profiles by interventional masked inference. The estimator provides exact interventional semantics, finite-sample Monte Carlo bounds, strict variance reduction from coupled diamond sampling, and uniform finite-vocabulary convergence. Across tabular SCMs, Stochastic Hi-Fi recovers structure missed by scalar baselines (up to 411x larger interaction-magnitude recovery ratios). It also separates redundant and synergistic heads in the GPT-2 IOI circuit. On NIH ChestX-ray14, Stochastic Hi-Fi matches GradCAM on Pointing Game and improves substantially on Deletion AUC.

Recent work on first-order optimizers for empirical risk minimization (ERM) has suggested that smoothness of ERM loss functions in the training data, rather than in the optimization parameters, can be leveraged to improve the oracle complexity of gradient descent (GD) methods. In this paper, we propose an inexact gradient method, piecewise polynomial interpolation-based gradient descent (PPI-GD), which approximates the full gradient in each iteration by querying the first-order oracle at equidistant points in the data domain to construct polynomial interpolants of the resulting gradient samples over appropriately sized patches of the data domain. We analyze the oracle complexity of PPI-GD for strongly convex and non-convex loss functions when the data space dimension is bounded by a polylogarithmic function of the number of training samples, and find it to outperform several GD variants in key regimes when the loss function is sufficiently smooth. Furthermore, our analysis extends several techniques from the error analysis of bicubic spline interpolants to the setting of $d$-variate tensor product polynomial interpolants which may be of independent interest in interpolation analysis.

Sparse point observations are increasingly available for precipitation nowcasting, but it is unclear how much they improve dense radar-field forecasts. We partially address this question with a multimodal graph neural network nowcasting system over the Nordic radar domain. The model predicts rain rate every five minutes up to two hours ahead and is trained with different combinations of radar history, MEPS numerical weather prediction, Netatmo surface observations, MSG satellite channels, stochastic noise, and CRPS-based ensemble losses. The study is designed as an ablation of operationally relevant information sources and training objectives. We compare radar-only, NWP-informed, station-informed, satellite-informed, noise-augmented, and CRPS-based configurations using complementary diagnostics on the radar grid, at station locations, for rain onset, and through oracle, displacement, and amplitude scores. The results show that each source improves a different part of the forecast problem. MEPS stabilises radar-only extrapolation, Netatmo observations improve local station and onset diagnostics, and satellite predictors reduce some station-level biases but may activate rain too early when used deterministically. CRPS-based configurations provide the most consistent radar-grid gains, while the combined satellite and CRPS setup gives the best overall oracle/DAS score. These results do not support the conclusion that point observations are uninformative for nowcasting, but they show that local observational skill and spatially coherent radar-field skill are distinct targets. The practical implication is that sparse observations can provide useful local constraints, but their benefit for radar-like fields depends on the training loss, uncertainty representation, and how observation support is encoded in the model.

We introduce Time-Conditioned Contraction Matching (TCCM), a novel method for semi-supervised anomaly detection in tabular data. TCCM is inspired by flow matching, a recent generative modeling framework that learns velocity fields between probability distributions and has shown strong performance compared to diffusion models and generative adversarial networks. Instead of directly applying flow matching as originally formulated, TCCM builds on its core idea--learning velocity fields between distributions--but simplifies the framework by predicting a time-conditioned contraction vector toward a fixed target (the origin) at each sampled time step. This design offers three key advantages: (1) a lightweight and scalable training objective that removes the need for solving ordinary differential equations during training and inference; (2) an efficient scoring strategy called one time-step deviation, which quantifies deviation from expected contraction behavior in a single forward pass, addressing the inference bottleneck of existing continuous-time models such as DTE (a diffusion-based model with leading anomaly detection accuracy but heavy inference cost); and (3) explainability and provable robustness, as the learned velocity field operates directly in input space, making the anomaly score inherently feature-wise attributable; moreover, the score function is Lipschitz-continuous with respect to the input, providing theoretical guarantees under small perturbations. Extensive experiments on the ADBench benchmark show that TCCM strikes a favorable balance between detection accuracy and inference cost, outperforming state-of-the-art methods--especially on high-dimensional and large-scale datasets.

Computational cognitive models, which formalize theories of cognition, enable researchers to quantify cognitive processes and arbitrate between competing theories by fitting models to behavioral data. Traditionally, these models are handcrafted, which requires significant domain knowledge, coding expertise, and time investment.

State-of-the-art membership inference attacks (MIAs) typically require training many reference models, making it difficult to scale these attacks to large pre-trained language models (LLMs). As a result, prior research has either relied on weaker attacks that avoid training references (e.g., fine-tuning attacks), or on stronger attacks applied to small models and datasets. However, weaker attacks have been shown to be brittle and insights from strong attacks in simplified settings do not translate to today's LLMs. These challenges prompt an important question: are the limitations observed in prior work due to attack design choices, or are MIAs fundamentally ineffective on LLMs? We address this question by scaling LiRA--one of the strongest MIAs--to GPT-2 architectures ranging from 10M to 1B parameters, training references on over 20B tokens from the C4 dataset. Our results advance the understanding of MIAs on LLMs in four key ways. While (1) strong MIAs can succeed on pretrained LLMs, (2) their effectiveness, remains limited (e.g., AUC<0.7) in practical settings.

Vision Transformers rely on fixed patch tokens that ignore the spatial and semantic structure of images. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end differentiable tokenizer that adapts to image content with pixel-level granularity while remaining backward-compatible with existing architectures for retrofitting pretrained models. Our method uses hierarchical model selection with information criteria to provide competitive performance in both image-level classification and dense-prediction tasks, and even supports out-of-the-box raster-to-vector conversion.

Data valuation techniques quantify each training example's contribution to model performance, providing a principled basis for data cleaning, acquisition, and selection. Existing valuation methods remain inadequate: model-based techniques depend on a single fitted model and inherit its biases, while algorithm-based approaches like Data Shapley scale poorly due to their need to train multiple models. Recent work has proposed model-agnostic alternatives based on Wasserstein distance between the training set and a clean reference set, but exact computation is expensive and approximations often misrank examples. We introduce KAIROS, a model-agnostic framework that values examples by their contribution to the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the training set and a clean reference distribution. Unlike Wasserstein methods, MMD admits a closed-form solution that requires no approximations and is scalable to large datasets. Additionally, KAIROS enables efficient online valuation: adding a new batch of m examples requires only O(mN)computation to update all scores, compared to O(N2)in prior work where N is the training set size. Empirical evaluations on noise, mislabeling, and poisoning benchmarks show that KAIROS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and runtime. On ImageNet, KAIROS achieves up to 15 speedup over the fastest baseline while maintaining superior data valuation quality. Our results demonstrate that model-agnostic methods can match or exceed model-based approaches in performance while scaling to large datasets.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameter optimization (CASH) is a challenging resource allocation problem in the field of AutoML. We propose MaxUCB, a max k-armed bandit method to trade off exploring different model classes and conducting hyperparameter optimization. MaxUCB is specifically designed for the light-tailed and bounded reward distributions arising in this setting and, thus, provides an efficient alternative compared to classic max k-armed bandit methods assuming heavy-tailed reward distributions. We theoretically and empirically evaluate our method on four standard AutoML benchmarks demonstrating superior performance over prior approaches.

Despite recent efforts in Large Language Model (LLM) safety and alignment, current adversarial attacks on frontier LLMs can still consistently force harmful generations. Although adversarial training has been widely studied and shown to significantly improve the robustness of traditional machine learning models, its strengths and weaknesses in the context of LLMs are less understood. Specifically, while existing discrete adversarial attacks are effective at producing harmful content, training LLMs with concrete adversarial prompts is often computationally expensive, leading to reliance on continuous relaxations. At the same time, despite their effectiveness and generalization capabilities, training with continuous perturbations does not always capture the full spectrum of vulnerabilities exploited by discrete attacks. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by introducing MIXAT, a novel method that combines stronger discrete and faster continuous attacks during training. We rigorously evaluate MIXAT across a wide spectrum of state-of-theart attacks, proposing the At Least One Attack Success Rate (ALO-ASR) metric to capture the worst-case vulnerability of models. We show MIXAT achieves substantially better robustness (ALO-ASR < 20%) compared to prior defenses (ALO-ASR > 50%), while maintaining a runtime comparable to methods based on continuous relaxations. We further analyze MIXAT in realistic deployment settings, exploring how chat templates, quantization, low-rank adapters, and temperature affect both adversarial training and evaluation, revealing additional blind spots in current methodologies. Our results demonstrate that MIXAT's discrete-continuous defense offers a principled and superior robustness-accuracy tradeoff with minimal computational overhead, highlighting its promise for building safer LLMs.