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A comprehensive review of classifier probability calibration metrics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Probabilities or confidence values produced by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models often do not reflect their true accuracy, with some models being under or over confident in their predictions. For example, if a model is 80% sure of an outcome, is it correct 80% of the time? Probability calibration metrics measure the discrepancy between confidence and accuracy, providing an independent assessment of model calibration performance that complements traditional accuracy metrics. Understanding calibration is important when the outputs of multiple systems are combined, for assurance in safety or business-critical contexts, and for building user trust in models. This paper provides a comprehensive review of probability calibration metrics for classifier and object detection models, organising them according to a number of different categorisations to highlight their relationships. We identify 82 major metrics, which can be grouped into four classifier families (point-based, bin-based, kernel or curve-based, and cumulative) and an object detection family. For each metric, we provide equations where available, facilitating implementation and comparison by future researchers.


Exploring the Potential of Conversational AI Support for Agent-Based Social Simulation Model Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ChatGPT, the AI-powered chatbot with a massive user base of hundreds of millions, has become a global phenomenon. However, the use of Conversational AI Systems (CAISs) like ChatGPT for research in the field of Social Simulation is still limited. Specifically, there is no evidence of its usage in Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS) model design. While scepticism towards anything new is inherent to human nature, we firmly believe it is imperative to initiate the use of this innovative technology to support ABSS model design. This paper presents a proof-of-concept that demonstrates how CAISs can facilitate the development of innovative conceptual ABSS models in a concise timeframe and with minimal required upfront case-based knowledge. By employing advanced prompt engineering techniques and adhering to the Engineering ABSS framework, we have constructed a comprehensive prompt script that enables the design of ABSS models with or by the CAIS. The effectiveness of the script is demonstrated through an illustrative case study concerning the use of adaptive architecture in museums. Despite occasional inaccuracies and divergences in conversation, the CAIS proved to be a valuable companion for ABSS modellers.


Exploratory Data Analysis Using Radial Basis Function Latent Variable Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Two developments of nonlinear latent variable models based on radial basis functions are discussed: in the first, the use of priors or constraints on allowable models is considered as a means of preserving data structure in low-dimensional representations for visualisation purposes. Also, a resampling approach is introduced which makes more effective use of the latent samples in evaluating the likelihood.


Exploratory Data Analysis Using Radial Basis Function Latent Variable Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Two developments of nonlinear latent variable models based on radial basis functions are discussed: in the first, the use of priors or constraints on allowable models is considered as a means of preserving data structure in low-dimensional representations for visualisation purposes. Also, a resampling approach is introduced which makes more effective use of the latent samples in evaluating the likelihood.