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An Interval Type-2 Version of Bayes Theorem Derived from Interval Probability Range Estimates Provided by Subject Matter Experts

Rickard, John T., Dembski, William A., Rickards, James

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian inference is widely used in many different fields to test hypotheses against observations. In most such applications, an assumption is made of precise input values to produce a precise output value. However, this is unrealistic for real-world applications. Often the best available information from subject matter experts (SMEs) in a given field is interval range estimates of the input probabilities involved in Bayes Theorem. This paper provides two key contributions to extend Bayes Theorem to an interval type-2 (IT2) version. First, we develop an IT2 version of Bayes Theorem that uses a novel and conservative method to avoid potential inconsistencies in the input IT2 MFs that otherwise might produce invalid output results. We then describe a novel and flexible algorithm for encoding SME-provided intervals into IT2 fuzzy membership functions (MFs), which we can use to specify the input probabilities in Bayes Theorem. Our algorithm generalizes and extends previous work on this problem that primarily addressed the encoding of intervals into word MFs for Computing with Words applications.







New Romanian law may have averted NATO clash with Russia after border strikes

FOX News

Russia hit pipelines in Ukraine, sparking bright flames and plumes of smoke seen from Romania. Russia narrowly avoided an armed skirmish with Romania, a member of the NATO alliance, after striking just a half mile from its border. Romanian defense officials believe the new law passed by parliament explicitly allowing its armed forces to shoot down Russian drones that fly over its territory prevented the Kremlin from incurring on its territory. Russia struck a gas distribution center in the Ismail Area of Ukraine with Shahed kamikaze drones on Tuesday and Wednesday, so close to Romania's border that Bucharest deployed F-16 aircraft to monitor. No unauthorized intrusions were reported.


Few-shot text-based emotion detection

Marchitan, Teodor-George, Creanga, Claudiu, Dinu, Liviu P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes the approach of the Unibuc - NLP team in tackling the SemEval 2025 Workshop, Task 11: Bridging the Gap in Text-Based Emotion Detection. We mainly focused on experiments using large language models (Gemini, Qwen, DeepSeek) with either few-shot prompting or fine-tuning. With our final system, for the multi-label emotion detection track (track A), we got an F1-macro of $0.7546$ (26/96 teams) for the English subset, $0.1727$ (35/36 teams) for the Portuguese (Mozambican) subset and $0.325$ (\textbf{1}/31 teams) for the Emakhuwa subset.


News Source Citing Patterns in AI Search Systems

Yang, Kai-Cheng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-powered search systems are emerging as new information gatekeepers, fundamentally transforming how users access news and information. Despite their growing influence, the citation patterns of these systems remain poorly understood. We address this gap by analyzing data from the AI Search Arena, a head-to-head evaluation platform for AI search systems. The dataset comprises over 24,000 conversations and 65,000 responses from models across three major providers: OpenAI, Perplexity, and Google. Among the over 366,000 citations embedded in these responses, 9% reference news sources. We find that while models from different providers cite distinct news sources, they exhibit shared patterns in citation behavior. News citations concentrate heavily among a small number of outlets and display a pronounced liberal bias, though low-credibility sources are rarely cited. User preference analysis reveals that neither the political leaning nor the quality of cited news sources significantly influences user satisfaction. These findings reveal significant challenges in current AI search systems and have important implications for their design and governance.


From Vision To Language through Graph of Events in Space and Time: An Explainable Self-supervised Approach

Masala, Mihai, Leordeanu, Marius

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The task of describing video content in natural language is commonly referred to as video captioning. Unlike conventional video captions, which are typically brief and widely available, long-form paragraph descriptions in natural language are scarce. This limitation of current datasets is due to the expensive human manual annotation required and to the highly challenging task of explaining the language formation process from the perspective of the underlying story, as a complex system of interconnected events in space and time. Through a thorough analysis of recently published methods and available datasets, we identify a general lack of published resources dedicated to the problem of describing videos in complex language, beyond the level of descriptions in the form of enumerations of simple captions. Furthermore, while state-of-the-art methods produce impressive results on the task of generating shorter captions from videos by direct end-to-end learning between the videos and text, the problem of explaining the relationship between vision and language is still beyond our reach. In this work, we propose a shared representation between vision and language, based on graphs of events in space and time, which can be obtained in an explainable and analytical way, to integrate and connect multiple vision tasks to produce the final natural language description. Moreover, we also demonstrate how our automated and explainable video description generation process can function as a fully automatic teacher to effectively train direct, end-to-end neural student pathways, within a self-supervised neuro-analytical system. We validate that our explainable neuro-analytical approach generates coherent, rich and relevant textual descriptions on videos collected from multiple varied datasets, using both standard evaluation metrics, human annotations and consensus from ensembles of state-of-the-art VLMs.