Forest fire prediction involves estimating the likelihood of fire ignition or related risk levels in a specific area over a defined time period. With climate change intensifying fire behavior and frequency, accurate prediction has become one of the most pressing challenges in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Traditionally, fire ignition is approached as a binary classification task in the literature. However, this formulation oversimplifies the problem, especially from the perspective of end-users such as firefighters. In general, as is the case in France, firefighting units are organized by department, each with its terrain, climate conditions, and historical experience with fire events. Consequently, fire risk should be modeled in a way that is sensitive to local conditions and does not assume uniform risk across all regions. This paper proposes a new approach that tailors fire risk assessment to departmental contexts, offering more actionable and region-specific predictions for operational use. With this, we present the first national-scale AI benchmark for metropolitan France using state-of-the-art AI models on a relatively unexplored dataset. Finally, we offer a summary of important future works that should be taken into account. Supplementary materials are available on GitHub.

Scientific information expresses human understanding of nature. This knowledge is largely disseminated in different forms of text, including scientific papers, news articles, and discourse among people on social media. While important for accelerating our pursuit of knowledge, not all scientific text is faithful to the underlying science. As the volume of this text has burgeoned online in recent years, it has become a problem of societal importance to be able to identify the faithfulness of a given piece of scientific text automatically. This thesis is concerned with the cultivation of datasets, methods, and tools for machine understanding of scientific language, in order to analyze and understand science communication at scale. To arrive at this, I present several contributions in three areas of natural language processing and machine learning: automatic fact checking, learning with limited data, and scientific text processing. These contributions include new methods and resources for identifying check-worthy claims, adversarial claim generation, multi-source domain adaptation, learning from crowd-sourced labels, cite-worthiness detection, zero-shot scientific fact checking, detecting exaggerated scientific claims, and modeling degrees of information change in science communication. Critically, I demonstrate how the research outputs of this thesis are useful for effectively learning from limited amounts of scientific text in order to identify misinformative scientific statements and generate new insights into the science communication process

Olive production is an important tree crop in Mediterranean climates. However, olive yield varies significantly due to climate change. Accurately estimating yield using remote sensing and machine learning remains a complex challenge. In this study, we developed a streamlined pipeline for olive yield estimation in the Kairouan and Sousse governorates of Tunisia. We extracted features from multispectral reflectance bands, vegetation indices derived from Landsat-8 OLI and Landsat-9 OLI-2 satellite imagery, along with digital elevation model data. These spatial features were combined with ground-based field survey data to form a structured tabular dataset. We then developed an automated ensemble learning framework, implemented using AutoGluon to train and evaluate multiple machine learning models, select optimal combinations through stacking, and generate robust yield predictions using five-fold cross-validation. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance from both sensors, with Landsat-8 OLI achieving R2 = 0.8635 and RMSE = 1.17 tons per ha, and Landsat-9 OLI-2 achieving R2 = 0.8378 and RMSE = 1.32 tons per ha. This study highlights a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate method for olive yield estimation, with potential applicability across diverse agricultural regions globally.

Forecasting compound floods presents a significant challenge due to the intricate interplay of meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic factors. Analyzing compound floods has become more critical as the global climate increases flood risks. Traditional physics-based methods, such as the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System, are often time-inefficient. Machine learning has recently demonstrated promise in both modeling accuracy and computational efficiency. However, the scarcity of comprehensive datasets currently hinders systematic analysis. Existing water-related datasets are often limited by a sparse network of monitoring stations and incomplete coverage of relevant factors. To address this challenge, we introduce SF2Bench, a comprehensive time series collection on compound floods in South Florida, which integrates four key factors: tide, rainfall, groundwater, and human management activities (gate and pump controlling). This integration allows for a more detailed analysis of the individual contributions of these drivers to compound flooding and informs the development of improved flood forecasting approaches. To comprehensively evaluate the potential of various modeling paradigms, we assess the performance of six categories of methods, encompassing Multilayer Perceptrons, Convolutional Neural Networks, Recurrent Neural Networks, Graph Neural Networks, Transformers, and Large Language Models. We verified the impact of different key features on flood forecasting through experiments. Our analysis examines temporal and spatial aspects, providing insights into the influence of historical data and spatial dependencies. The varying performance across these approaches underscores the diverse capabilities of each in capturing complex temporal and spatial dependencies inherent in compound floods.

Accurate prediction of wildfire spread is crucial for effective risk management, emergency response, and strategic resource allocation. In this study, we present a deep learning (DL)-based framework for forecasting the final extent of burned areas, using data available at the time of ignition. We leverage a spatio-temporal dataset that covers the Mediterranean region from 2006 to 2022, incorporating remote sensing data, meteorological observations, vegetation maps, land cover classifications, anthropogenic factors, topography data, and thermal anomalies. To evaluate the influence of temporal context, we conduct an ablation study examining how the inclusion of pre- and post-ignition data affects model performance, benchmarking the temporal-aware DL models against a baseline trained exclusively on ignition-day inputs. Our results indicate that multi-day observational data substantially improve predictive accuracy. Particularly, the best-performing model, incorporating a temporal window of four days before to five days after ignition, improves both the F1 score and the Intersection over Union by almost 5% in comparison to the baseline on the test dataset. We publicly release our dataset and models to enhance research into data-driven approaches for wildfire modeling and response.

The occurrence of West Nile Virus (WNV) represents one of the most common mosquito-borne zoonosis viral infections. Its circulation is usually associated with climatic and environmental conditions suitable for vector proliferation and virus replication. On top of that, several statistical models have been developed to shape and forecast WNV circulation: in particular, the recent massive availability of Earth Observation (EO) data, coupled with the continuous advances in the field of Artificial Intelligence, offer valuable opportunities. In this paper, we seek to predict WNV circulation by feeding Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with satellite images, which have been extensively shown to hold environmental and climatic features. Notably, while previous approaches analyze each geographical site independently, we propose a spatial-aware approach that considers also the characteristics of close sites. Specifically, we build upon Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to aggregate features from neighbouring places, and further extend these modules to consider multiple relations, such as the difference in temperature and soil moisture between two sites, as well as the geographical distance. Moreover, we inject time-related information directly into the model to take into account the seasonality of virus spread. We design an experimental setting that combines satellite images - from Landsat and Sentinel missions - with ground truth observations of WNV circulation in Italy. We show that our proposed Multi-Adjacency Graph Attention Network (MAGAT) consistently leads to higher performance when paired with an appropriate pre-training stage. Finally, we assess the importance of each component of MAGAT in our ablation studies.

Extreme wildfires are a significant cause of human death and biodiversity destruction within countries that encompass the Mediterranean Basin. Recent worrying trends in wildfire activity (i.e., occurrence and spread) suggest that wildfires are likely to be highly impacted by climate change. In order to facilitate appropriate risk mitigation, we must identify the main drivers of extreme wildfires and assess their spatio-temporal trends, with a view to understanding the impacts of global warming on fire activity. We analyse the monthly burnt area due to wildfires over a region encompassing most of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin from 2001 to 2020, and identify high fire activity during this period in Algeria, Italy and Portugal. We build an extreme quantile regression model with a high-dimensional predictor set describing meteorological conditions, land cover usage, and orography. To model the complex relationships between the predictor variables and wildfires, we use a hybrid statistical deep-learning framework that can disentangle the effects of vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature, and drought on wildfire activity. Our results highlight that whilst VPD, air temperature, and drought significantly affect wildfire occurrence, only VPD affects wildfire spread. To gain insights into the effect of climate trends on wildfires in the near future, we focus on August 2001 and perturb temperature according to its observed trends (median over Europe: +0.04K per year). We find that, on average over Europe, these trends lead to a relative increase of 17.1\% and 1.6\% in the expected frequency and severity, respectively, of wildfires in August 2001, with spatially non-uniform changes in both aspects.

Archaeologists have found shipwrecks in the Mediterranean filled with hundreds of artefacts including Chinese porcelain, jugs, coffee pots, peppercorns and illicit tobacco pipes. A British-led expedition found a cluster of 12 ships on the sea bed, 1.2 miles below the surface of the Levantine Sea, using sophisticated robots. The ships were recovered in ancient'shipping lanes' that served spice and silk trades of the Greek, Roman and Ottoman empires, from 300 BC onwards. The ancient ships – including the biggest ever found in the Med – were unearthed in a muddy part of the eastern seabed between Cyprus and Lebanon, where remnants are often hard to find. The cluster of shipwrecks were found in the Levantine Basin in the east of the Mediterranean Sea.

End-to-end neural models have made significant progress in question answering, however recent studies show that these models implicitly assume that the answer and evidence appear close together in a single document. In this work, we propose the Coarse-grain Fine-grain Coattention Network (CFC), a new question answering model that combines information from evidence across multiple documents. The CFC consists of a coarse-grain module that interprets documents with respect to the query then finds a relevant answer, and a fine-grain module which scores each candidate answer by comparing its occurrences across all of the documents with the query. We design these modules using hierarchies of coattention and self-attention, which learn to emphasize different parts of the input. On the Qangaroo WikiHop multi-evidence question answering task, the CFC obtains a new state-of-the-art result of 70.6% on the blind test set, outperforming the previous best by 3% accuracy despite not using pretrained contextual encoders.