Causal effect estimation is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground-truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-theart predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic causal data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph.

Visual processing starts in the outer retina where photoreceptors transform light into electrochemical signals. These signals are modulated by inhibition from horizontal cells and sent to the inner retina via excitatory bipolar cells. The outer retina is thought to play an important role in contrast invariant coding of visual information, but how the different cell types implement this computation together remains incompletely understood. To understand the role of each cell type, we developed a fully-differentiable biophysical model of a circular patch of mouse outer retina. The model includes 200 cone photoreceptors with a realistic phototransduction cascade and ribbon synapses as well as horizontal and bipolar cells, all with celltype specific ion channels. Going beyond decades of work constraining biophysical models of neurons only by experimental data, we used a dual approach, constraining some parameters of the model with available measurements and others by a visual task: (1) We fit the parameters of the cone models to whole cell patch-clamp measurements of photocurrents and two-photon glutamate imaging measurements of synaptic release.

Activation functions are fundamental elements of deep learning architectures as they significantly influence training dynamics. ReLU, while widely used, is prone to the dying neuron problem, which has been mitigated by variants such as LeakyReLU, PReLU, and ELU that better handle negative neuron outputs. Recently, self-gated activations like GELU and Swish have emerged as state-of-the-art alternatives, leveraging their smoothness to ensure stable gradient flow and prevent neuron inactivity.

Understanding how humans move their eyes to gather visual information is a central question in neuroscience, cognitive science, and vision research. While recent deep learning (DL) models achieve state-of-the-art performance in predicting human scanpaths, their underlying decision processes remain opaque. At an opposite end of the modeling spectrum, cognitively inspired mechanistic models aim to explain scanpath behavior through interpretable cognitive mechanisms but lag far behind in predictive accuracy. In this work, we bridge this gap by using a high-performing deep model--DeepGaze III--to discover and test mechanisms that improve a leading mechanistic model, SceneWalk. By identifying individual fixations where DeepGaze III succeeds and SceneWalk fails, we isolate behaviorally meaningful discrepancies and use them to motivate targeted extensions of the mechanistic framework. These include time-dependent temperature scaling, saccadic momentum and an adaptive cardinal attention bias: Simple, interpretable additions that substantially boost predictive performance. With these extensions, SceneWalk's explained variance on the MIT1003 dataset doubles from 35% to 70%, setting a new state of the art in mechanistic scanpath prediction. Our findings show how performance-optimized neural networks can serve as tools for cognitive model discovery, offering a new path toward interpretable and high-performing models of visual behavior.

Inferring 3D human motion from video remains a challenging problem with many applications. While traditional methods estimate the human in image coordinates, many applications require human motion to be estimated in world coordinates. This is particularly challenging when there is both human and camera motion. Progress on this topic has been limited by the lack of rich video data with ground truth human and camera movement. We address this with BEDLAM2.0, a new dataset that goes beyond the popular BEDLAM dataset in important ways.

The authors would like to thank Ulrich-Michael, Frances, James, Maryam, and Mandolyn for their help in labeling the dataset. The work at the Université de Montréal was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) (Paull), an NSERCPGS DScholarship (Morin) and an FRQNT Doctoral Scholarship (Morin). Moreover, this research was enabled in part by compute resources provided by Mila (mila.quebec). The work at the University of Freiburg was funded by an academic grant from NVIDIA. The work at the University of Oxford was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship (Fallon, Kassab), a Sellafield Robotics and AICentre of Excellence Grant, and EPSRCC2CGrant EP/Z531212/1 (Mattamala), and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT)(No.

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in epidemiological or survey settings, individuals with certain outcomes may be more likely to be included, resulting in biased prevalence estimates with potentially substantial downstream impact. Classical corrections, such as inverse-probability weighting or explicit likelihood-based models of the selection process, rely on tractable likelihoods, which limits their applicability in complex stochastic models with latent dynamics or high-dimensional structure. Simulation-based inference enables Bayesian analysis without tractable likelihoods but typically assumes missingness at random and thus fails when selection depends on unobserved outcomes or covariates. Here, we develop a bias-aware simulation-based inference framework that explicitly incorporates selection into neural posterior estimation. By embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative simulator, the approach enables amortized Bayesian inference without requiring tractable likelihoods. This recasting of selection bias as part of the simulation process allows us to both obtain debiased estimates and explicitly test for the presence of bias. The framework integrates diagnostics to detect discrepancies between simulated and observed data and to assess posterior calibration. The method recovers well-calibrated posterior distributions across three statistical applications with diverse selection mechanisms, including settings in which likelihood-based approaches yield biased estimates. These results recast the correction of selection bias as a simulation problem and establish simulation-based inference as a practical and testable strategy for parameter estimation under selection bias.

As deep neural networks are deployed in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, stakeholders need explanations that are interpretable but also trustworthy with formal guarantees. Existing XAI methods fall short: heuristic attribution techniques (e.g., LIME, Integrated Gradients) highlight influential features but offer no mathematical guarantees about decision boundaries, while formal methods verify robustness yet remain untargeted, analyzing the nearest boundary regardless of whether it represents a critical risk. In safety-critical systems, not all misclassifications carry equal consequences; confusing a "Stop" sign for a "60 kph" sign is far more dangerous than confusing it with a "No Passing" sign. We introduce ViTaX (Verified and Targeted Explanations), a formal XAI framework that generates targeted semifactual explanations with mathematical guarantees. For a given input (class y) and a user-specified critical alternative (class t), ViTaX: (1) identifies the minimal feature subset most sensitive to the y->t transition, and (2) applies formal reachability analysis to guarantee that perturbing these features by epsilon cannot flip the classification to t. We formalize this through Targeted epsilon-Robustness, certifying whether a feature subset remains robust under perturbation toward a specific target class. ViTaX is the first method to provide formally guaranteed explanations of a model's resilience against user-identified alternatives. Evaluations on MNIST, GTSRB, EMNIST, and TaxiNet demonstrate over 30% fidelity improvement with minimal explanation cardinality.

Approaches to bivariate causal discovery based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle approximate the (uncomputable) Kolmogorov complexity of the models in each causal direction, selecting the one with the lower total complexity. The premise is that nature's mechanisms are simpler in their true causal order. Inherently, the description length (complexity) in each direction includes the description of the cause variable and that of the causal mechanism. In this work, we argue that current state-of-the-art MDL-based methods do not correctly address the problem of estimating the description length of the cause variable, effectively leaving the decision to the description length of the causal mechanism. Based on rate-distortion theory, we propose a new way to measure the description length of the cause, corresponding to the minimum rate required to achieve a distortion level representative of the underlying distribution. This distortion level is deduced using rules from histogram-based density estimation, while the rate is computed using the related concept of information dimension, based on an asymptotic approximation. Combining it with a traditional approach for the causal mechanism, we introduce a new bivariate causal discovery method, termed rate-distortion MDL (RDMDL). We show experimentally that RDMDL achieves competitive performance on the Tübingen dataset. All the code and experiments are publicly available at github.com/tiagobrogueira/Causal-Discovery-In-Exchangeable-Data.