As cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of AI-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages diffusion models to forecast cyclone trajectories and precipitation patterns by integrating satellite imaging, remote sensing, and atmospheric data, employing a cascaded approach that incorporates forecasting, super-resolution, and precipitation modelling, with training on a dataset of 51 cyclones from six major basins. Experiments demonstrate that the final forecasts from the cascaded models show accurate predictions up to a 36-hour rollout, with SSIM and PSNR values exceeding 0.5 and 20 dB, respectively, for all three tasks. This work also highlights the promising efficiency of AI methods such as diffusion models for high-performance needs, such as cyclone forecasting, while remaining computationally affordable, making them ideal for highly vulnerable regions with critical forecasting needs and financial limitations.

A long-standing goal of AI systems is to perform complex multimodal reasoning like humans. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable strides in such multi-step reasoning on the language modality solely by leveraging the chain of thought (CoT) to mimic human thinking. However, the transfer of these advancements to multimodal contexts introduces heightened challenges, including but not limited to the impractical need for labor-intensive annotation and the limitations in terms of flexibility, generalizability, and explainability. To evoke CoT reasoning in multimodality, this work first conducts an in-depth analysis of these challenges posed by multimodality and presents two key insights: "keeping critical thinking" and "letting everyone do their jobs" in multimodal CoT reasoning. Furthermore, this study proposes a novel DDCoT prompting that maintains a critical attitude through negative-space prompting and incorporates multimodality into reasoning by first dividing the reasoning responsibility of LLMs into reasoning and recognition and then integrating the visual recognition capability of visual models into the joint reasoning process. The rationales generated by DDCoT not only improve the reasoning abilities of both large and small language models in zero-shot prompting and fine-tuning learning, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods but also exhibit impressive generalizability and explainability.

Languages are known to describe the world in diverse ways. Across lexicons, diversity is pervasive, appearing through phenomena such as lexical gaps and untranslatability. However, in computational resources, such as multilingual lexical databases, diversity is hardly ever represented. In this paper, we introduce a method to enrich computational lexicons with content relating to linguistic diversity. The method is verified through two large-scale case studies on kinship terminology, a domain known to be diverse across languages and cultures: one case study deals with seven Arabic dialects, while the other one with three Indonesian languages. Our results, made available as browseable and downloadable computational resources, extend prior linguistics research on kinship terminology, and provide insight into the extent of diversity even within linguistically and culturally close communities.

Language Models (LMs) often must integrate facts they memorized in pretraining with new information that appears in a given context. These two sources can disagree, causing competition within the model, and it is unclear how an LM will resolve the conflict. On a dataset that queries for knowledge of world capitals, we investigate both distributional and mechanistic determinants of LM behavior in such situations. Specifically, we measure the proportion of the time an LM will use a counterfactual prefix (e.g., "The capital of Poland is London") to overwrite what it learned in pretraining ("Warsaw"). On Pythia and GPT2, the training frequency of both the query country ("Poland") and the in-context city ("London") highly affect the models' likelihood of using the counterfactual. We then use head attribution to identify individual attention heads that either promote the memorized answer or the in-context answer in the logits. By scaling up or down the value vector of these heads, we can control the likelihood of using the in-context answer on new data. This method can increase the rate of generating the in-context answer to 88\% of the time simply by scaling a single head at runtime. Our work contributes to a body of evidence showing that we can often localize model behaviors to specific components and provides a proof of concept for how future methods might control model behavior dynamically at runtime.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial for the daily operation of power grids. However, the non-linearity, non-stationarity, and randomness characterizing electricity demand time series renders STLF a challenging task. Various forecasting approaches have been proposed for improving STLF, including neural network (NN) models which are trained using data from multiple electricity demand series that may not necessary include the target series. In the present study, we investigate the performance of this special case of STLF, called transfer learning (TL), by considering a set of 27 time series that represent the national day-ahead electricity demand of indicative European countries. We employ a popular and easy-to-implement NN model and perform a clustering analysis to identify similar patterns among the series and assist TL. In this context, two different TL approaches, with and without the clustering step, are compiled and compared against each other as well as a typical NN training setup. Our results demonstrate that TL can outperform the conventional approach, especially when clustering techniques are considered.

Automated text simplification, a technique useful for making text more accessible to people such as children and emergent bilinguals, is often thought of as a monolingual translation task from complex sentences to simplified sentences using encoder-decoder models. This view fails to account for elaborative simplification, where new information is added into the simplified text. This paper proposes to view elaborative simplification through the lens of the Question Under Discussion (QUD) framework, providing a robust way to investigate what writers elaborate upon, how they elaborate, and how elaborations fit into the discourse context by viewing elaborations as explicit answers to implicit questions. We introduce ElabQUD, consisting of 1.3K elaborations accompanied with implicit QUDs, to study these phenomena. We show that explicitly modeling QUD (via question generation) not only provides essential understanding of elaborative simplification and how the elaborations connect with the rest of the discourse, but also substantially improves the quality of elaboration generation.

AI software can land a plane on a carrier deck better than you. Over 5,000 men and women crew each of America's 11 aircraft carriers, but the U.S. Navy's counting on AI to help them fight China. AI will bring carrier planes in for landings, fly unmanned tankers with fuel for combat planes, and even analyze the bug juice in the chow line. Night carrier landings are dangerous feats of combat aviation. Americans think of the "Top Gun" movies starring Tom Cruise as Maverick, an intrepid Navy pilot who can land a 32,000-lb.

Structured knowledge bases (KBs) are an asset for search engines and other applications, but are inevitably incomplete. Language models (LMs) have been proposed for unsupervised knowledge base completion (KBC), yet, their ability to do this at scale and with high accuracy remains an open question. Prior experimental studies mostly fall short because they only evaluate on popular subjects, or sample already existing facts from KBs. In this work, we perform a careful evaluation of GPT's potential to complete the largest public KB: Wikidata. We find that, despite their size and capabilities, models like GPT-3, ChatGPT and GPT-4 do not achieve fully convincing results on this task. Nonetheless, they provide solid improvements over earlier approaches with smaller LMs. In particular, we show that, with proper thresholding, GPT-3 enables to extend Wikidata by 27M facts at 90% precision.

In open-domain question-answering (ODQA), most existing questions require single-hop reasoning on commonsense. To further extend this task, we officially introduce open-domain multi-hop reasoning (ODMR) by answering multi-hop questions with explicit reasoning steps in open-domain setting. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have found significant utility in facilitating ODQA without external corpus. Furthermore, chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting boosts the reasoning capability of LLMs to a greater extent with manual or automated paradigms. However, existing automated methods lack of quality assurance, while manual approaches suffer from limited scalability and poor diversity, hindering the capabilities of LLMs. In this paper, we propose Self-prompted Chain-of-Thought (SP-CoT), an automated framework to mass-produce high quality CoTs of LLMs, by LLMs and for LLMs. SP-CoT introduces an automated generation pipeline of high quality ODMR datasets, an adaptive sampler for in-context CoT selection and self-prompted inference via in-context learning. Extensive experiments on four multi-hop question-answering benchmarks show that our proposed SP-CoT not only significantly surpasses the previous SOTA methods on large-scale (175B) LLMs, but also nearly doubles the zero-shot performance of small-scale (13B) LLMs. Further analysis reveals the remarkable capability of SP-CoT to elicit direct and concise intermediate reasoning steps by recalling $\sim$50\% of intermediate answers on MuSiQue-Ans dataset.

Making image retrieval methods practical for real-world search applications requires significant progress in dataset scales, entity comprehension, and multimodal information fusion. In this work, we introduce \textbf{E}ntity-\textbf{D}riven \textbf{I}mage \textbf{S}earch (EDIS), a challenging dataset for cross-modal image search in the news domain. EDIS consists of 1 million web images from actual search engine results and curated datasets, with each image paired with a textual description. Unlike datasets that assume a small set of single-modality candidates, EDIS reflects real-world web image search scenarios by including a million multimodal image-text pairs as candidates. EDIS encourages the development of retrieval models that simultaneously address cross-modal information fusion and matching. To achieve accurate ranking results, a model must: 1) understand named entities and events from text queries, 2) ground entities onto images or text descriptions, and 3) effectively fuse textual and visual representations. Our experimental results show that EDIS challenges state-of-the-art methods with dense entities and a large-scale candidate set. The ablation study also proves that fusing textual features with visual features is critical in improving retrieval results.