Atlantic Ocean
A novel interface for adversarial trivia question-writing
A critical component when developing question-answering AIs is an adversarial dataset that challenges models to adapt to the complex syntax and reasoning underlying our natural language. Present techniques for procedurally generating adversarial texts are not robust enough for training on complex tasks such as answering multi-sentence trivia questions. We instead turn to human-generated data by introducing an interface for collecting adversarial human-written trivia questions. Our interface is aimed towards question writers and players of Quiz Bowl, a buzzer-based trivia competition where paragraph-long questions consist of a sequence of clues of decreasing difficulty. To incentivize usage, a suite of machine learning-based tools in our interface assist humans in writing questions that are more challenging to answer for Quiz Bowl players and computers alike. Not only does our interface gather training data for the groundbreaking Quiz Bowl AI project QANTA, but it is also a proof-of-concept of future adversarial data collection for question-answering systems. The results of performance-testing our interface with ten originally-composed questions indicate that, despite some flaws, our interface's novel question-writing features as well as its real-time exposure of useful responses from our machine models could facilitate and enhance the collection of adversarial questions. The code for our interface is available at: https://github.com/Zefan-Cai/QAML
Real-Time Planning Under Uncertainty for AUVs Using Virtual Maps
Collado-Gonzalez, Ivana, McConnell, John, Wang, Jinkun, Szenher, Paul, Englot, Brendan
Reliable localization is an essential capability for marine robots navigating in GPS-denied environments. SLAM, commonly used to mitigate dead reckoning errors, still fails in feature-sparse environments or with limited-range sensors. Pose estimation can be improved by incorporating the uncertainty prediction of future poses into the planning process and choosing actions that reduce uncertainty. However, performing belief propagation is computationally costly, especially when operating in large-scale environments. This work proposes a computationally efficient planning under uncertainty frame-work suitable for large-scale, feature-sparse environments. Our strategy leverages SLAM graph and occupancy map data obtained from a prior exploration phase to create a virtual map, describing the uncertainty of each map cell using a multivariate Gaussian. The virtual map is then used as a cost map in the planning phase, and performing belief propagation at each step is avoided. A receding horizon planning strategy is implemented, managing a goal-reaching and uncertainty-reduction tradeoff. Simulation experiments in a realistic underwater environment validate this approach. Experimental comparisons against a full belief propagation approach and a standard shortest-distance approach are conducted.
Storm Surge Modeling in the AI ERA: Using LSTM-based Machine Learning for Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy
Giaremis, Stefanos, Nader, Noujoud, Dawson, Clint, Kaiser, Hartmut, Kaiser, Carola, Nikidis, Efstratios
Physics simulation results of natural processes usually do not fully capture the real world. This is caused for instance by limits in what physical processes are simulated and to what accuracy. In this work we propose and analyze the use of an LSTM-based deep learning network machine learning (ML) architecture for capturing and predicting the behavior of the systemic error for storm surge forecast models with respect to real-world water height observations from gauge stations during hurricane events. The overall goal of this work is to predict the systemic error of the physics model and use it to improve the accuracy of the simulation results post factum. We trained our proposed ML model on a dataset of 61 historical storms in the coastal regions of the U.S. and we tested its performance in bias correcting modeled water level data predictions from hurricane Ian (2022). We show that our model can consistently improve the forecasting accuracy for hurricane Ian -- unknown to the ML model -- at all gauge station coordinates used for the initial data. Moreover, by examining the impact of using different subsets of the initial training dataset, containing a number of relatively similar or different hurricanes in terms of hurricane track, we found that we can obtain similar quality of bias correction by only using a subset of six hurricanes. This is an important result that implies the possibility to apply a pre-trained ML model to real-time hurricane forecasting results with the goal of bias correcting and improving the produced simulation accuracy. The presented work is an important first step in creating a bias correction system for real-time storm surge forecasting applicable to the full simulation area. It also presents a highly transferable and operationally applicable methodology for improving the accuracy in a wide range of physics simulation scenarios beyond storm surge forecasting.
USS Carney shoots down drones, missile fired by Houthis in Yemen
U.S. destroyer USS Carney shot down drones and a missile fired toward it in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthi rebels, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Wednesday. USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer that has been involved in the American campaign against the Iranian-backed rebels, shot down one anti-ship ballistic missile and three one-way attack unmanned aerial systems launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. Sanaa time, CENTCOM said. Several hours later, CENTCOM forces destroyed three anti-ship missiles and three unmanned surface vessels (USV) in self-defense. The missiles and USVs were located in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. "CENTCOM forces identified the missiles, UAVs, and USVs and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and to the U.S. Navy ships in the region," CENTCOM said in a statement.
An EnKF-LSTM Assimilation Algorithm for Crop Growth Model
Zhou, Siqi, Wang, Ling, Liu, Jie, Tang, Jinshan
Accurate and timely prediction of crop growth is of great significance to ensure crop yields and researchers have developed several crop models for the prediction of crop growth. However, there are large difference between the simulation results obtained by the crop models and the actual results, thus in this paper, we proposed to combine the simulation results with the collected crop data for data assimilation so that the accuracy of prediction will be improved. In this paper, an EnKF-LSTM data assimilation method for various crops is proposed by combining ensemble Kalman filter and LSTM neural network, which effectively avoids the overfitting problem of existing data assimilation methods and eliminates the uncertainty of the measured data. The verification of the proposed EnKF-LSTM method and the comparison of the proposed method with other data assimilation methods were performed using datasets collected by sensor equipment deployed on a farm.
The UK's GPS Tagging of Migrants Has Been Ruled Illegal
The way the UK government has been tagging migrants with GPS trackers is illegal, the country's privacy regulator ruled on Friday, in a rebuke to officials who have been experimenting with migrant-surveillance tech in both the UK and the US. As part of an 18-month pilot that concluded in December, the UK interior ministry, known as the Home Office, forced up to 600 people who arrived in the country without permission to wear ankle tags that continuously tracked their locations. However, that pilot broke UK data protection law because it did not properly assess the privacy intrusion of GPS tracking or give migrants clear information about the data that was being collected, the UK's Information Commissioner's Office (ICO) said today. The ruling means the Home Office has 28 days to update its policies around GPS tracking. Friday's decision also means the ICO could fine the Home Office up to 17.5 million ( 22 million) or 4 percent of its turnover--whichever is higher--if it resumes tagging people who arrive on the UK south coast in small boats from Europe.
Inferring Dynamic Networks from Marginals with Iterative Proportional Fitting
Chang, Serina, Koehler, Frederic, Qu, Zhaonan, Leskovec, Jure, Ugander, Johan
A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn's algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF's parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.
Don't Forget Your Reward Values: Language Model Alignment via Value-based Calibration
Mao, Xin, Li, Feng-Lin, Xu, Huimin, Zhang, Wei, Luu, Anh Tuan
While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) significantly enhances the generation quality of Large Language Models (LLMs), recent studies have raised concerns regarding the complexity and instability associated with the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm, proposing a series of order-based calibration methods as viable alternatives. This paper delves further into current order-based methods, examining their inefficiencies in utilizing reward values and addressing misalignment issues. Building upon these findings, we propose a novel \textbf{V}alue-based \textbf{C}ali\textbf{B}ration (VCB) method to better align LLMs with human preferences. Experimental results demonstrate that VCB surpasses existing alignment methods on AI assistant and summarization datasets, providing impressive generalizability, robustness, and stability in diverse settings.
Russia's war on Ukraine unlikely to end in 2024; Congress plays pivotal role in direction conflict takes
The direction of the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war will largely depend upon whether Congress can overcome hesitation about continued support as fatigue sets in, experts told Fox News Digital. "America's partnerships and alliances have never been more important than they are right now," Kenneth J Braithwaite, former secretary of the Navy in the Trump administration and former ambassador to Norway, argued. "Communism is alive and well, and we are up against it as Russia wages war against Europe and China seeks to exert more influence on the globe," Braithwaite said. "That means Americans need to look outside our borders at how we can protect ourselves from these looming challenges, starting with one of our greatest force multipliers: Our partnerships and willingness to stand united against authoritarian threats to sovereignty." The second year of the Ukraine invasion proved a truly chaotic one, starting with Russia seeming to suffer catastrophic setbacks when the vital Wagner forces turned traitor and tried to march on Moscow.