Trajectory generation is an important task in movement studies; it circumvents the privacy, ethical, and technical challenges of collecting real trajectories from the target population. In particular, real trajectories in the wildlife domain are scarce as a result of ethical and environmental constraints of the collection process. In this paper, we consider the problem of generating long-horizon trajectories, akin to wildlife migration, based on a small set of real samples. We propose a hierarchical approach to learn the global movement characteristics of the real dataset and recursively refine localized regions. Our solution, WildGraph, discretizes the geographic path into a prototype network of H3 (https://www.uber.com/blog/h3/) regions and leverages a recurrent variational auto-encoder to probabilistically generate paths over the regions, based on occupancy. WildGraph successfully generates realistic months-long trajectories using a sample size as small as 60. Experiments performed on two wildlife migration datasets demonstrate that our proposed method improves the generalization of the generated trajectories in comparison to existing work while achieving superior or comparable performance in several benchmark metrics. Our code is published on the following repository: \url{https://github.com/aliwister/wildgraph}.

We present an empirical study of groundedness in long-form question answering (LFQA) by retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs). In particular, we evaluate whether every generated sentence is grounded in the retrieved documents or the model's pre-training data. Across 3 datasets and 4 model families, our findings reveal that a significant fraction of generated sentences are consistently ungrounded, even when those sentences contain correct ground-truth answers. Additionally, we examine the impacts of factors such as model size, decoding strategy, and instruction tuning on groundedness. Our results show that while larger models tend to ground their outputs more effectively, a significant portion of correct answers remains compromised by hallucinations. This study provides novel insights into the groundedness challenges in LFQA and underscores the necessity for more robust mechanisms in LLMs to mitigate the generation of ungrounded content.

Anthropogenic ecological crisis constitutes a significant challenge that all within the academy must urgently face, including the Natural Language Processing (NLP) community. While recent years have seen increasing work revolving around climate-centric discourse, crucial environmental and ecological topics outside of climate change remain largely unaddressed, despite their prominent importance. Mainstream NLP tasks, such as sentiment analysis, dominate the scene, but there remains an untouched space in the literature involving the analysis of environmental impacts of certain events and practices. To address this gap, this paper presents EcoVerse, an annotated English Twitter dataset of 3,023 tweets spanning a wide spectrum of environmental topics. We propose a three-level annotation scheme designed for Eco-Relevance Classification, Stance Detection, and introducing an original approach for Environmental Impact Analysis. We detail the data collection, filtering, and labeling process that led to the creation of the dataset. Remarkable Inter-Annotator Agreement indicates that the annotation scheme produces consistent annotations of high quality. Subsequent classification experiments using BERT-based models, including ClimateBERT, are presented. These yield encouraging results, while also indicating room for a model specifically tailored for environmental texts. The dataset is made freely available to stimulate further research.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) such as GPT-4V and Gemini Pro face challenges in achieving human-level perception in Visual Question Answering (VQA), particularly in object-oriented perception tasks which demand fine-grained understanding of object identities, locations or attributes, as indicated by empirical findings. This is mainly due to their limited capability to effectively integrate complex visual cues with textual information and potential object hallucinations. In this paper, we present a novel approach, Joint Visual and Text Prompting (VTPrompt), that employs fine-grained visual information to enhance the capability of MLLMs in VQA, especially for object-oriented perception. VTPrompt merges visual and text prompts to extract key concepts from textual questions and employs a detection model to highlight relevant objects as visual prompts in images. The processed images alongside text prompts are subsequently fed into MLLMs to produce more accurate answers. Our experiments with GPT-4V and Gemini Pro, on three benchmarks, i.e., MME , MMB and POPE, demonstrate significant improvements. Particularly, our method led to a score improvement of up to 183.5 for GPT-4V on MME and enhanced MMB performance by 8.17\% for GPT-4V and 15.69\% for Gemini Pro.

Hurricanes and coastal floods are among the most disastrous natural hazards. Both are intimately related to storm surges, as their causes and effects, respectively. However, the short-term forecasting of storm surges has proven challenging, especially when targeting previously unseen locations or sites without tidal gauges. Furthermore, recent work improved short and medium-term weather forecasting but the handling of raw unassimilated data remains non-trivial. In this paper, we tackle both challenges and demonstrate that neural networks can implicitly assimilate sparse in situ tide gauge data with coarse ocean state reanalysis in order to forecast storm surges. We curate a global dataset to learn and validate the dense prediction of storm surges, building on preceding efforts. Other than prior work limited to known gauges, our approach extends to ungauged sites, paving the way for global storm surge forecasting.

We introduce KazQAD -- a Kazakh open-domain question answering (ODQA) dataset -- that can be used in both reading comprehension and full ODQA settings, as well as for information retrieval experiments. KazQAD contains just under 6,000 unique questions with extracted short answers and nearly 12,000 passage-level relevance judgements. We use a combination of machine translation, Wikipedia search, and in-house manual annotation to ensure annotation efficiency and data quality. The questions come from two sources: translated items from the Natural Questions (NQ) dataset (only for training) and the original Kazakh Unified National Testing (UNT) exam (for development and testing). The accompanying text corpus contains more than 800,000 passages from the Kazakh Wikipedia. As a supplementary dataset, we release around 61,000 question-passage-answer triples from the NQ dataset that have been machine-translated into Kazakh. We develop baseline retrievers and readers that achieve reasonable scores in retrieval (NDCG@10 = 0.389 MRR = 0.382), reading comprehension (EM = 38.5 F1 = 54.2), and full ODQA (EM = 17.8 F1 = 28.7) settings. Nevertheless, these results are substantially lower than state-of-the-art results for English QA collections, and we think that there should still be ample room for improvement. We also show that the current OpenAI's ChatGPTv3.5 is not able to answer KazQAD test questions in the closed-book setting with acceptable quality. The dataset is freely available under the Creative Commons licence (CC BY-SA) at https://github.com/IS2AI/KazQAD.

Knowledge probing assesses to which degree a language model (LM) has successfully learned relational knowledge during pre-training. Probing is an inexpensive way to compare LMs of different sizes and training configurations. However, previous approaches rely on the objective function used in pre-training LMs and are thus applicable only to masked or causal LMs. As a result, comparing different types of LMs becomes impossible. To address this, we propose an approach that uses an LM's inherent ability to estimate the log-likelihood of any given textual statement. We carefully design an evaluation dataset of 7,731 instances (40,916 in a larger variant) from which we produce alternative statements for each relational fact, one of which is correct. We then evaluate whether an LM correctly assigns the highest log-likelihood to the correct statement. Our experimental evaluation of 22 common LMs shows that our proposed framework, BEAR, can effectively probe for knowledge across different LM types. We release the BEAR datasets and an open-source framework that implements the probing approach to the research community to facilitate the evaluation and development of LMs.

High-dimensional longitudinal time series data is prevalent across various real-world applications. Many such applications can be modeled as regression problems with high-dimensional time series covariates. Deep learning has been a popular and powerful tool for fitting these regression models. Yet, the development of interpretable and reproducible deep-learning models is challenging and remains underexplored. This study introduces a novel method, Deep Learning Inference using Knockoffs for Time series data (DeepLINK-T), focusing on the selection of significant time series variables in regression while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) at a predetermined level. DeepLINK-T combines deep learning with knockoff inference to control FDR in feature selection for time series models, accommodating a wide variety of feature distributions. It addresses dependencies across time and features by leveraging a time-varying latent factor structure in time series covariates. Three key ingredients for DeepLINK-T are 1) a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder for generating time series knockoff variables, 2) an LSTM prediction network using both original and knockoff variables, and 3) the application of the knockoffs framework for variable selection with FDR control. Extensive simulation studies have been conducted to evaluate DeepLINK-T's performance, showing its capability to control FDR effectively while demonstrating superior feature selection power for high-dimensional longitudinal time series data compared to its non-time series counterpart. DeepLINK-T is further applied to three metagenomic data sets, validating its practical utility and effectiveness, and underscoring its potential in real-world applications.

Anomaly detection in wind turbines typically involves using normal behaviour models to detect faults early. However, training autoencoder models for each turbine is time-consuming and resource intensive. Thus, transfer learning becomes essential for wind turbines with limited data or applications with limited computational resources. This study examines how cross-turbine transfer learning can be applied to autoencoder-based anomaly detection. Here, autoencoders are combined with constant thresholds for the reconstruction error to determine if input data contains an anomaly. The models are initially trained on one year's worth of data from one or more source wind turbines. They are then fine-tuned using smaller amounts of data from another turbine. Three methods for fine-tuning are investigated: adjusting the entire autoencoder, only the decoder, or only the threshold of the model. The performance of the transfer learning models is compared to baseline models that were trained on one year's worth of data from the target wind turbine. The results of the tests conducted in this study indicate that models trained on data of multiple wind turbines do not improve the anomaly detection capability compared to models trained on data of one source wind turbine. In addition, modifying the model's threshold can lead to comparable or even superior performance compared to the baseline, whereas fine-tuning the decoder or autoencoder further enhances the models' performance.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate content that contains factual errors when responding to fact-seeking prompts on open-ended topics. To benchmark a model's long-form factuality in open domains, we first use GPT-4 to generate LongFact, a prompt set comprising thousands of questions spanning 38 topics. We then propose that LLM agents can be used as automated evaluators for long-form factuality through a method which we call Search-Augmented Factuality Evaluator (SAFE). SAFE utilizes an LLM to break down a long-form response into a set of individual facts and to evaluate the accuracy of each fact using a multi-step reasoning process comprising sending search queries to Google Search and determining whether a fact is supported by the search results. Furthermore, we propose extending F1 score as an aggregated metric for long-form factuality. To do so, we balance the percentage of supported facts in a response (precision) with the percentage of provided facts relative to a hyperparameter representing a user's preferred response length (recall). Empirically, we demonstrate that LLM agents can outperform crowdsourced human annotators - on a set of ~16k individual facts, SAFE agrees with crowdsourced human annotators 72% of the time, and on a random subset of 100 disagreement cases, SAFE wins 76% of the time. At the same time, SAFE is more than 20 times cheaper than human annotators. We also benchmark thirteen language models on LongFact across four model families (Gemini, GPT, Claude, and PaLM-2), finding that larger language models generally achieve better long-form factuality. LongFact, SAFE, and all experimental code are available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/long-form-factuality.