We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting, a straightforward yet effective approach that generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This hybrid framework employs a convolutional neural network to estimate state-dependent weights to identify initial analog states that lead to shadowing target trajectories. The advantage of our method lies in its inherent interpretability, offering insights into initial-error-sensitive regions through estimated weights and the ability to trace the physically-based evolution of the system through analog forecasting. We evaluate our approach using the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble to forecast the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a seasonal-to-annual time scale. Results show a 10% improvement in forecasting equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies at 9-12 months leads compared to the original (unweighted) model-analog technique. Furthermore, our model demonstrates improvements in boreal winter and spring initialization when evaluated against a reanalysis dataset. Our approach reveals state-dependent regional sensitivity linked to various seasonally varying physical processes, including the Pacific Meridional Modes, equatorial recharge oscillator, and stochastic wind forcing. Additionally, disparities emerge in the sensitivity associated with El Ni\~no versus La Ni\~na events. El Ni\~no forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, while La Ni\~na forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. This approach has broad implications for forecasting diverse climate phenomena, including regional temperature and precipitation, which are challenging for the original model-analog approach.

A majority of language technologies are tailored for a small number of high-resource languages, while relatively many low-resource languages are neglected. One such group, Creole languages, have long been marginalized in academic study, though their speakers could benefit from machine translation (MT). These languages are predominantly used in much of Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean. We present the largest cumulative dataset to date for Creole language MT, including 14.5M unique Creole sentences with parallel translations -- 11.6M of which we release publicly, and the largest bitexts gathered to date for 41 languages -- the first ever for 21. In addition, we provide MT models supporting all 41 Creole languages in 172 translation directions. Given our diverse dataset, we produce a model for Creole language MT exposed to more genre diversity than ever before, which outperforms a genre-specific Creole MT model on its own benchmark for 26 of 34 translation directions.

Persona-driven role-playing (PRP) aims to build AI characters that can respond to user queries by faithfully sticking with all persona statements. Unfortunately, existing faithfulness criteria for PRP are limited to coarse-grained LLM-based scoring without a clear definition or formulation. This paper presents a pioneering exploration to quantify PRP faithfulness as a fine-grained and explainable criterion, which also serves as a reliable reference for optimization. Our criterion first discriminates persona statements into active and passive constraints by identifying the query-statement relevance. Then, we incorporate all constraints following the principle that the AI character's response should be (a) entailed by active (relevant) constraints and (b) not contradicted by passive (irrelevant) constraints. We translate this principle mathematically into a novel Active-Passive-Constraint (APC) score, a constraint-wise sum of natural language inference (NLI) scores weighted by relevance scores. In practice, we build the APC scoring system by symbolically distilling small discriminators from GPT-4 for efficiency. We validate the quality of the APC score against human evaluation based on example personas with tens of statements, and the results show a high correlation. We further leverage it as a reward system in direct preference optimization (DPO) for better AI characters. Our experiments offer a fine-grained and explainable comparison between existing PRP techniques, revealing their advantages and limitations. We further find APC-based DPO to be one of the most competitive techniques for sticking with all constraints and can be well incorporated with other techniques. We then extend the scale of the experiments to real persons with hundreds of statements and reach a consistent conclusion.

Accurately reconstructing the global ocean deoxygenation over a century is crucial for assessing and protecting marine ecosystem. Existing expert-dominated numerical simulations fail to catch up with the dynamic variation caused by global warming and human activities. Besides, due to the high-cost data collection, the historical observations are severely sparse, leading to big challenge for precise reconstruction. In this work, we propose OxyGenerator, the first deep learning based model, to reconstruct the global ocean deoxygenation from 1920 to 2023. Specifically, to address the heterogeneity across large temporal and spatial scales, we propose zoning-varying graph message-passing to capture the complex oceanographic correlations between missing values and sparse observations. Additionally, to further calibrate the uncertainty, we incorporate inductive bias from dissolved oxygen (DO) variations and chemical effects. Compared with in-situ DO observations, OxyGenerator significantly outperforms CMIP6 numerical simulations, reducing MAPE by 38.77%, demonstrating a promising potential to understand the "breathless ocean" in data-driven manner.

In this study, explainable machine learning techniques are applied to predict the toxicity of mussels in the Gulf of Trieste (Adriatic Sea) caused by harmful algal blooms. By analysing a newly created 28-year dataset containing records of toxic phytoplankton in mussel farming areas and toxin concentrations in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis), we train and evaluate the performance of ML models to accurately predict diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) events. The random forest model provided the best prediction of positive toxicity results based on the F1 score. Explainability methods such as permutation importance and SHAP identified key species (Dinophysis fortii and D. caudata) and environmental factors (salinity, river discharge and precipitation) as the best predictors of DSP outbreaks. These findings are important for improving early warning systems and supporting sustainable aquaculture practices.

A YouTube based in Florida's iconic Haulover Inlet, set between Bal Harbour and Sunny Isles in Miami-Dade County, posted this video during a boozing weekend. The family of one of two teen boys facing felonies for dumping drums of trash into the Atlantic Ocean at Florida's annual Boca Bash issued an apology after their son turned himself in to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). Now-viral drone footage shows the teens hefting two trash bins filled with bottles and other plastics over the railing of their fishing vessel as they speed away from the boozy water gathering on April 28. As the boat of partiers zoomed away into the choppy waters of the Boca Raton inlet, the video pans out to the spread of debris left floating in their wake. Footage from the front of the boat shows the teens waving and laughing.

Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI by their ability to generate human-like text and understand images, but ensuring their reliability is crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of LLMs (GPT4, GPT-3.5, LLaMA2, and PaLM 2) and VLMs (GPT4V and Gemini Pro Vision) to estimate their verbalized uncertainty via prompting. We propose the new Japanese Uncertain Scenes (JUS) dataset, aimed at testing VLM capabilities via difficult queries and object counting, and the Net Calibration Error (NCE) to measure direction of miscalibration. Results show that both LLMs and VLMs have a high calibration error and are overconfident most of the time, indicating a poor capability for uncertainty estimation. Additionally we develop prompts for regression tasks, and we show that VLMs have poor calibration when producing mean/standard deviation and 95% confidence intervals.

Former National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien joins'Life, Liberty & Levin' to discuss the Biden administration's foreign policy in the Middle East. China on Friday launched a lunar probe to land on the far side of the moon and return with samples that could provide insights into differences between the less-explored region and the better-known near side. It is the latest advance in China's increasingly sophisticated space exploration program, which is now competing with the U.S., still the leader in space. China also has a three-member crew on its own orbiting space station and aims to put astronauts on the moon by 2030. Three Chinese lunar probe missions are planned over the next four years.

Language technology has the potential to facilitate intercultural communication through meaningful translations. However, the current state of language technology is deeply entangled with colonial knowledge due to path dependencies and neo-colonial tendencies in the global governance of artificial intelligence (AI). Language technology is a complex and emerging field that presents challenges for co-design interventions due to enfolding in assemblages of global scale and diverse sites and its knowledge intensity. This paper uses LiveLanguage, a lexical database, a set of services with particular emphasis on modelling language diversity and integrating small and minority languages, as an example to discuss and close the gap from pluriversal design theory to practice. By diversifying the concept of emerging technology, we can better approach language technology in global contexts. The paper presents a model comprising of five layers of technological activity. Each layer consists of specific practices and stakeholders, thus provides distinctive spaces for co-design interventions as mode of inquiry for de-linking, re-thinking and re-building language technology towards pluriversality. In that way, the paper contributes to reflecting the position of co-design in decolonising emergent technologies, and to integrating complex theoretical knowledge towards decoloniality into language technology design.

Months of relentless Russian artillery pounding have devastated a strategic city in eastern Ukraine, new drone footage obtained by The Associated Press shows, with barely a building left intact, homes and municipal offices charred and a town that once had a population of 12,000 now all but deserted. The footage shows Chasiv Yar -- set amid green fields and woodland -- pounded into an apocalyptic vista. The destruction is reminiscent of the cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, which Ukraine yielded after months of bombardment and huge losses for both sides. The strategically important city has been under attack by Russian forces for months. Capturing it would give Russia control of a hilltop from which it can attack other cities that form the backbone of Ukraine's eastern defenses.