This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022), which tested the approach for short- and medium-range weather prediction, and the work of Arcomano et al. (2023), which investigated its potential for climate modeling. The hybrid model used for the forecast experiments of the paper is based on the low-resolution, simplified parameterization atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) SPEEDY. In addition to the hybridized prognostic variables of SPEEDY, the current version of the model has three purely ML-based prognostic variables. One of these is 6~h cumulative precipitation, another is the sea surface temperature, while the third is the heat content of the top 300 m deep layer of the ocean. The model has skill in predicting the El Ni\~no cycle and its global teleconnections with precipitation for 3-7 months depending on the season. The model captures equatorial variability of the precipitation associated with Kelvin and Rossby waves and MJO. Predictions of the precipitation in the equatorial region have skill for 15 days in the East Pacific and 11.5 days in the West Pacific. Though the model has low spatial resolution, for these tasks it has prediction skill comparable to what has been published for high-resolution, purely physics-based, conventional operational forecast models.

Misinformation regarding climate change is a key roadblock in addressing one of the most serious threats to humanity. This paper investigates factual accuracy in large language models (LLMs) regarding climate information. Using true/false labeled Q&A data for fine-tuning and evaluating LLMs on climate-related claims, we compare open-source models, assessing their ability to generate truthful responses to climate change questions. We investigate the detectability of models intentionally poisoned with false climate information, finding that such poisoning may not affect the accuracy of a model's responses in other domains. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness of unlearning algorithms, fine-tuning, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for factually grounding LLMs on climate change topics. Our evaluation reveals that unlearning algorithms can be effective for nuanced conceptual claims, despite previous findings suggesting their inefficacy in privacy contexts. These insights aim to guide the development of more factually reliable LLMs and highlight the need for additional work to secure LLMs against misinformation attacks.

Addressing the issue of submerged underwater trash is crucial for safeguarding aquatic ecosystems and preserving marine life. While identifying debris present on the surface of water bodies is straightforward, assessing the underwater submerged waste is a challenge due to the image distortions caused by factors such as light refraction, absorption, suspended particles, color shifts, and occlusion. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of state-of-the-art architectures and on the existing datasets to establish a baseline for submerged waste and trash detection. The primary goal remains to establish the benchmark of the object localization techniques to be leveraged by advanced underwater sensors and autonomous underwater vehicles. The ultimate objective is to explore the underwater environment, to identify, and remove underwater debris. The absence of benchmarks (dataset or algorithm) in many researches emphasizes the need for a more robust algorithmic solution. Through this research, we aim to give performance comparative analysis of various underwater trash detection algorithms.

In this article we present a novel system for natural language generation (NLG) of Spanish sentences from a minimum set of meaningful words (such as nouns, verbs and adjectives) which, unlike other state-of-the-art solutions, performs the NLG task in a fully automatic way, exploiting both knowledge-based and statistical approaches. Relying on its linguistic knowledge of vocabulary and grammar, the system is able to generate complete, coherent and correctly spelled sentences from the main word sets presented by the user. The system, which was designed to be integrable, portable and efficient, can be easily adapted to other languages by design and can feasibly be integrated in a wide range of digital devices. During its development we also created a supplementary lexicon for Spanish, aLexiS, with wide coverage and high precision, as well as syntactic trees from a freely available definite-clause grammar. The resulting NLG library has been evaluated both automatically and manually (annotation). The system can potentially be used in different application domains such as augmentative communication and automatic generation of administrative reports or news.

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed to integrate this prior knowledge into probabilistic modeling typically limits the application of these models to specialists. Our goal is to build a regression model that can process numerical data and make probabilistic predictions at arbitrary locations, guided by natural language text which describes a user's prior knowledge. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide a useful starting point for designing such a tool since they 1) provide an interface where users can incorporate expert insights in natural language and 2) provide an opportunity for leveraging latent problem-relevant knowledge encoded in LLMs that users may not have themselves. We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs. We examine these joint predictive distributions, which we call LLM Processes, over arbitrarily-many quantities in settings such as forecasting, multi-dimensional regression, black-box optimization, and image modeling. We investigate the practical details of prompting to elicit coherent predictive distributions, and demonstrate their effectiveness at regression. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to usefully incorporate text into numerical predictions, improving predictive performance and giving quantitative structure that reflects qualitative descriptions. This lets us begin to explore the rich, grounded hypothesis space that LLMs implicitly encode.

Ocean dynamics plays a crucial role in driving global weather and climate patterns. Accurate and efficient modeling of ocean dynamics is essential for improved understanding of complex ocean circulation and processes, for predicting climate variations and their associated teleconnections, and for addressing the challenges of climate change. While great efforts have been made to improve numerical Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), accurate forecasting of global oceanic variations for multi-year remains to be a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce ORCA (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst), the first data-driven model predicting global ocean circulation from multi-year to decadal time scales. ORCA accurately simulates the three-dimensional circulations and dynamics of the global ocean with high physical consistency. Hindcasts of key oceanic variables demonstrate ORCA's remarkable prediction skills in predicting ocean variations compared with state-of-the-art numerical OGCMs and abilities in capturing occurrences of extreme events at the subsurface ocean and ENSO vertical patterns. These results demonstrate the potential of data-driven ocean models for providing cheap, efficient, and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction. Moreover, ORCA stably and faithfully emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for climate projections. The model will be available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/ORCA.

Cognitive diagnosis is a fundamental and critical task in learning assessment, which aims to infer students' proficiency on knowledge concepts from their response logs. Current works assume each knowledge concept will certainly be tested and covered by multiple exercises. However, whether online or offline courses, it's hardly feasible to completely cover all knowledge concepts in several exercises. Restricted tests lead to undiscovered knowledge deficits, especially untested knowledge concepts(UKCs). In this paper, we propose a novel \underline{Dis}entangling Heterogeneous \underline{K}nowledge \underline{C}ognitive \underline{D}iagnosis framework on untested knowledge(DisKCD). Specifically, we leverage course grades, exercise questions, and resources to learn the potential representations of students, exercises, and knowledge concepts. In particular, knowledge concepts are disentangled into tested and untested based on the limiting actual exercises. We construct a heterogeneous relation graph network via students, exercises, tested knowledge concepts(TKCs), and UKCs. Then, through a hierarchical heterogeneous message-passing mechanism, the fine-grained relations are incorporated into the embeddings of the entities. Finally, the embeddings will be applied to multiple existing cognitive diagnosis models to infer students' proficiency on UKCs. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that the proposed model can effectively improve the performance of the task of diagnosing students' proficiency on UKCs. Our anonymous code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DisKCD.

The pretrain+fine-tune paradigm is foundational in deploying large language models (LLMs) across a diverse range of downstream applications. Among these, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) stands out for its parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), producing numerous off-the-shelf task-specific LoRA adapters. However, this approach requires explicit task intention selection, posing challenges for automatic task sensing and switching during inference with multiple existing LoRA adapters embedded in a single LLM. In this work, we introduce MeteoRA (Multiple-Tasks embedded LoRA), a scalable multi-knowledge LoRA fusion framework designed for LLMs. MeteoRA integrates various LoRA adapters in a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) style into the base LLM, enabling the model to automatically select the most pertinent adapter based on the task input. This advancement significantly enhances the LLM's capability to handle composite tasks that require different adapters to solve various components of the problem. Our evaluations, featuring the LlaMA2-13B and LlaMA3-8B base models equipped with off-the-shelf 28 LoRA adapters through MeteoRA, demonstrate equivalent performance with the individual adapters. Furthermore, both base models equipped with MeteoRA achieve superior performance in sequentially solving composite tasks with ten problems in only a single inference process, highlighting the ability of timely intention switching in MeteoRA embedded LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used for knowledge-seeking yet suffer from hallucinations. The knowledge boundary (KB) of an LLM limits its factual understanding, beyond which it may begin to hallucinate. Investigating the perception of LLMs' KB is crucial for detecting hallucinations and LLMs' reliable generation. Current studies perceive LLMs' KB on questions with a concrete answer (close-ended questions) while paying limited attention to semi-open-ended questions (SoeQ) that correspond to many potential answers. Some researchers achieve it by judging whether the question is answerable or not. However, this paradigm is unsuitable for SoeQ, which are usually partially answerable, containing both answerable and ambiguous (unanswerable) answers. Ambiguous answers are essential for knowledge-seeking, but they may go beyond the KB of LLMs. In this paper, we perceive the LLMs' KB with SoeQ by discovering more ambiguous answers. First, we apply an LLM-based approach to construct SoeQ and obtain answers from a target LLM. Unfortunately, the output probabilities of mainstream black-box LLMs are inaccessible to sample for low-probability ambiguous answers. Therefore, we apply an open-sourced auxiliary model to explore ambiguous answers for the target LLM. We calculate the nearest semantic representation for existing answers to estimate their probabilities, with which we reduce the generation probability of high-probability answers to achieve a more effective generation. Finally, we compare the results from the RAG-based evaluation and LLM self-evaluation to categorize four types of ambiguous answers that are beyond the KB of the target LLM. Following our method, we construct a dataset to perceive the KB for GPT-4. We find that GPT-4 performs poorly on SoeQ and is often unaware of its KB. Besides, our auxiliary model, LLaMA-2-13B, is effective in discovering more ambiguous answers.

Multimodal LLMs are the natural evolution of LLMs, and enlarge their capabilities so as to work beyond the pure textual modality. As research is being carried out to design novel architectures and vision-and-language adapters, in this paper we concentrate on endowing such models with the capability of answering questions that require external knowledge. Our approach, termed Wiki-LLaVA, aims at integrating an external knowledge source of multimodal documents, which is accessed through a hierarchical retrieval pipeline. Relevant passages, using this approach, are retrieved from the external knowledge source and employed as additional context for the LLM, augmenting the effectiveness and precision of generated dialogues. We conduct extensive experiments on datasets tailored for visual question answering with external data and demonstrate the appropriateness of our approach.