In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts.

Even after a century beneath the water, the Titanic's bow remains one of the most magnificent and haunting sights in the ocean. However, a new survey of the wreck site has revealed that the railing, made famous by Jack and Rose, has now collapsed into rust. Haunting images snapped by underwater robots through the years show the great ship's bow has gradually eroded. Experts say that its metal construction and frequent human visits mean it is only a matter of time before the Titanic collapses. Dr Rodrigo Pacheco-Ruiz, archaeological data manager for HMS Victory and maritime archaeologist from the University of Southampton, told MailOnline: 'The realistic view is that because she's such a big metal object, she won't be there for very long.' Haunting pictures reveal how the Titanic's iconic bow has decayed in the 37 years between 1987 and 2010 Earlier this week, RMS Titanic Inc, the company which holds the salvage rights for the ship, released new images and footage of the sunken liner.

Accurately assessing the postmortem interval (PMI) is an important task in forensic science. Some of the existing techniques use regression models that use a decomposition score to predict the PMI or accumulated degree days (ADD), however, the provided formulas are based on very small samples and the accuracy is low. With the advent of Big Data, much larger samples can be used to improve PMI estimation methods. We, therefore, aim to investigate ways to improve PMI prediction accuracy by (a) using a much larger sample size, (b) employing more advanced linear models, and (c) enhancing models with factors known to affect the human decay process. Specifically, this study involved the curation of a sample of 249 human subjects from a large-scale decomposition dataset, followed by evaluating pre-existing PMI/ADD formulas and fitting increasingly sophisticated models to estimate the PMI/ADD. Results showed that including the total decomposition score (TDS), demographic factors (age, biological sex, and BMI), and weather-related factors (season of discovery, temperature history, and humidity history) increased the accuracy of the PMI/ADD models. Furthermore, the best performing PMI estimation model using the TDS, demographic, and weather-related features as predictors resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.34 and an RMSE of 0.95. It had a 7% lower RMSE than a model using only the TDS to predict the PMI and a 48% lower RMSE than the pre-existing PMI formula. The best ADD estimation model, also using the TDS, demographic, and weather-related features as predictors, resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.52 and an RMSE of 0.89. It had an 11% lower RMSE than the model using only the TDS to predict the ADD and a 52% lower RMSE than the pre-existing ADD formula. This work demonstrates the need (and way) to incorporate demographic and environmental factors into PMI/ADD estimation models.

Climate models lack the necessary resolution for urban climate studies, requiring computationally intensive processes to estimate high resolution air temperatures. In contrast, Data-driven approaches offer faster and more accurate air temperature downscaling. This study presents a data-driven framework for downscaling air temperature using publicly available outputs from urban climate models, specifically datasets generated by UrbClim. The proposed framework utilized morphological features extracted from LiDAR data. To extract urban morphological features, first a three-dimensional building model was created using LiDAR data and deep learning models. Then, these features were integrated with meteorological parameters such as wind, humidity, etc., to downscale air temperature using machine learning algorithms. The results demonstrated that the developed framework effectively extracted urban morphological features from LiDAR data. Deep learning algorithms played a crucial role in generating three-dimensional models for extracting the aforementioned features. Also, the evaluation of air temperature downscaling results using various machine learning models indicated that the LightGBM model had the best performance with an RMSE of 0.352{\deg}K and MAE of 0.215{\deg}K. Furthermore, the examination of final air temperature maps derived from downscaling showed that the developed framework successfully estimated air temperatures at higher resolutions, enabling the identification of local air temperature patterns at street level. The corresponding source codes are available on GitHub: https://github.com/FatemehCh97/Air-Temperature-Downscaling.

Large language models rely on Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) to specialize in downstream tasks. Cross Entropy (CE) loss is the de facto choice in SFT, but it often leads to overfitting and limited output diversity due to its aggressive updates to the data distribution. This paper aim to address these issues by introducing the maximum entropy principle, which favors models with flatter distributions that still effectively capture the data. Specifically, we develop a new distribution matching method called GEM, which solves reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization with an entropy regularizer. For the SFT of Llama-3-8B models, GEM outperforms CE in several aspects. First, when applied to the UltraFeedback dataset to develop general instruction-following abilities, GEM exhibits reduced overfitting, evidenced by lower perplexity and better performance on the IFEval benchmark. Furthermore, GEM enhances output diversity, leading to performance gains of up to 7 points on math reasoning and code generation tasks using best-of-n sampling, even without domain-specific data. Second, when fine-tuning with domain-specific datasets for math reasoning and code generation, GEM also shows less overfitting and improvements of up to 10 points compared with CE.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often underperform compared to simpler climatology-based precipitation forecasts in northern tropical Africa, even after statistical postprocessing. AI-based forecasting models show promise but have avoided precipitation due to its complexity. Synoptic-scale forcings like African easterly waves and other tropical waves (TWs) are important for predictability in tropical Africa, yet their value for predicting daily rainfall remains unexplored. This study uses two machine-learning models--gamma regression and a convolutional neural network (CNN)--trained on TW predictors from satellite-based GPM IMERG data to predict daily rainfall during the July-September monsoon season. Predictor variables are derived from the local amplitude and phase information of seven TW from the target and up-and-downstream neighboring grids at 1-degree spatial resolution. The ML models are combined with Easy Uncertainty Quantification (EasyUQ) to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts and are compared with three benchmarks: Extended Probabilistic Climatology (EPC15), ECMWF operational ensemble forecast (ENS), and a probabilistic forecast from the ENS control member using EasyUQ (CTRL EasyUQ). The study finds that downstream predictor variables offer the highest predictability, with downstream tropical depression (TD)-type wave-based predictors being most important. Other waves like mixed-Rossby gravity (MRG), Kelvin, and inertio-gravity waves also contribute significantly but show regional preferences. ENS forecasts exhibit poor skill due to miscalibration. CTRL EasyUQ shows improvement over ENS and marginal enhancement over EPC15. Both gamma regression and CNN forecasts significantly outperform benchmarks in tropical Africa. This study highlights the potential of ML models trained on TW-based predictors to improve daily precipitation forecasts in tropical Africa.

Multitask learning for improved scour detection: A dynamic wave tank study Simon M. Brealy, Aidan J. Hughes, Tina A. Dardeno, Lawrence A. Bull, Robin S. Mills, Nikolaos Dervilis, Keith Worden Bayesian hierarchical models help reduce uncertainty of foundation model parameters in populations of wind-turbines Reduced foundation parameter uncertainty aids detection of anomalies in dynamic behaviour during operation Future design of turbines may also be improved through reducing the likelihood and severity of fatigue damage Abstract Population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM), aims to share information between members of a population. An offshore wind (OW) farm could be considered as a population of nominally-identical wind-turbine structures. However, benign variations exist among members, such as geometry, sea-bed conditions and temperature differences. These factors could influence structural properties and therefore the dynamic response, making it more difficult to detect structural problems via traditional SHM techniques. This paper explores the use of a Bayesian hierarchical model as a means of multitask learning, to infer foundation stiffness distribution parameters at both population and local levels. To do this, observations of natural frequency from populations of structures were first generated from both numerical and experimental models. These observations were then used in a partially-pooled Bayesian hierarchical model in tandem with surrogate FE models of the structures to infer foundation stiffness parameters.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated xenophobia, particularly Sinophobia, leading to widespread discrimination against individuals of Chinese descent. Large language models (LLMs) are pre-trained deep learning models used for natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The ability of LLMs to understand and generate human-like text makes them particularly useful for analysing social media data to detect and evaluate sentiments. We present a sentiment analysis framework utilising LLMs for longitudinal sentiment analysis of the Sinophobic sentiments expressed in X (Twitter) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show a significant correlation between the spikes in Sinophobic tweets, Sinophobic sentiments and surges in COVID-19 cases, revealing that the evolution of the pandemic influenced public sentiment and the prevalence of Sinophobic discourse. Furthermore, the sentiment analysis revealed a predominant presence of negative sentiments, such as annoyance and denial, which underscores the impact of political narratives and misinformation shaping public opinion. The lack of empathetic sentiment which was present in previous studies related to COVID-19 highlights the way the political narratives in media viewed the pandemic and how it blamed the Chinese community. Our study highlights the importance of transparent communication in mitigating xenophobic sentiments during global crises.

Learning fine-scale details of a coastal ocean simulation from a coarse representation is a challenging task. For real-world applications, high-resolution simulations are necessary to advance understanding of many coastal processes, specifically, to predict flooding resulting from tsunamis and storm surges. We propose a Deep Network for Coastal Super-Resolution (DNCSR) for spatiotemporal enhancement to efficiently learn the high-resolution numerical solution. Given images of coastal simulations produced on low-resolution computational meshes using low polynomial order discontinuous Galerkin discretizations and a coarse temporal resolution, the proposed DNCSR learns to produce high-resolution free surface elevation and velocity visualizations in both time and space. To efficiently model the dynamic changes over time and space, we propose grid-aware spatiotemporal attention to project the temporal features to the spatial domain for non-local feature matching. The coordinate information is also utilized via positional encoding. For the final reconstruction, we use the spatiotemporal bilinear operation to interpolate the missing frames and then expand the feature maps to the frequency domain for residual mapping. Besides data-driven losses, the proposed physics-informed loss guarantees gradient consistency and momentum changes. Their combination contributes to the overall 24% improvements in RMSE. To train the proposed model, we propose a large-scale coastal simulation dataset and use it for model optimization and evaluation. Our method shows superior super-resolution quality and fast computation compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

After four years without an incident, SpaceX engineers had good reason to be confident about a routine launch this week. But that confidence was literally blown out of the water this morning after a Falcon 9 rocket booster dramatically exploded shortly after landing. Booster 1062 had just broken the record for the most consecutive launches without failure when it failed to touch down a SpaceX drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean. A shocking video captured the moment the booster suddenly tipped over and was engulfed in a ball of purple flames. This marks the first time since 2021 that a SpaceX booster stage has failed to land after taking its payload into orbit.