In August 2023, Scott Aaronson and I reported the results of testing GPT4 with the Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins over a collection of 105 original high-school level and college-level science and math problems (Davis and Aaronson, 2023). In September 2024, I tested the recently released model GPT-4o1-preview on the same collection. Overall I found that performance had significantly improved, but was still considerably short of perfect. In particular, problems that involve spatial reasoning are often stumbling blocks. On September 12, OpenAI (2024) released two preliminary versions, "ChatGPT-o1-preview" and "ChatGPT-o1-mini" of a forthcoming product "ChatGPT-o1".

Russia's overnight attacks on Ukraine also left several people wounded in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones targeted a military airfield in the Maikop region of southern Russia. Local officials evacuated 40 people from a nearby village. Russia's missile strike on the Odesa region hit a Panamanian-registered ship on Wednesday night, Oleh Kiper said - two days after a Palau-flagged ship was attacked, leaving one dead on board. Another ship, which was said to be carrying 6,000 tonnes of corn, was attacked on Sunday.

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research.

The structure of many real-world datasets is intrinsically hierarchical, making the modeling of such hierarchies a critical objective in both unsupervised and supervised machine learning. Recently, novel approaches for hierarchical clustering with deep architectures have been proposed. In this work, we take a critical perspective on this line of research and demonstrate that many approaches exhibit major limitations when applied to realistic datasets, partly due to their high computational complexity. In particular, we show that a lightweight procedure implemented on top of pre-trained non-hierarchical clustering models outperforms models designed specifically for hierarchical clustering. Our proposed approach is computationally efficient and applicable to any pre-trained clustering model that outputs logits, without requiring any fine-tuning. To highlight the generality of our findings, we illustrate how our method can also be applied in a supervised setup, recovering meaningful hierarchies from a pre-trained ImageNet classifier.

Accurate forest canopy height estimation is essential for evaluating aboveground biomass and carbon stock dynamics, supporting ecosystem monitoring services like timber provisioning, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. However, despite advancements in spaceborne LiDAR technology, data for northern high latitudes remain limited due to orbital and sampling constraints. This study introduces a methodology for generating spatially continuous, high-resolution canopy height and uncertainty estimates using Deep Learning Regression models. We integrate multi-source, multi-seasonal satellite data from Sentinel-1, Landsat, and ALOS-PALSAR-2, with spaceborne GEDI LiDAR as reference data. Our approach was tested in Ontario, Canada, and validated with airborne LiDAR, demonstrating strong performance. The best results were achieved by incorporating seasonal Sentinel-1 and Landsat features alongside PALSAR data, yielding an R-square of 0.72, RMSE of 3.43 m, and bias of 2.44 m. Using seasonal data instead of summer-only data improved variability by 10%, reduced error by 0.45 m, and decreased bias by 1 m. The deep learning model's weighting strategy notably reduced errors in tall canopy height estimates compared to a recent global model, though it overestimated lower canopy heights. Uncertainty maps highlighted greater uncertainty near forest edges, where GEDI measurements are prone to errors and SAR data may encounter backscatter issues like foreshortening, layover, and shadow. This study enhances canopy height estimation techniques in areas lacking spaceborne LiDAR coverage, providing essential tools for forestry, environmental monitoring, and carbon stock estimation.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) empowers large language models (LLMs) to utilize external knowledge sources. The increasing capacity of LLMs to process longer input sequences opens up avenues for providing more retrieved information, to potentially enhance the quality of generated outputs. It is plausible to assume that a larger retrieval set would contain more relevant information (higher recall), that might result in improved performance. However, our empirical findings demonstrate that for many long-context LLMs, the quality of generated output initially improves first, but then subsequently declines as the number of retrieved passages increases. This paper investigates this phenomenon, identifying the detrimental impact of retrieved "hard negatives" as a key contributor. To mitigate this and enhance the robustness of long-context LLM-based RAG, we propose both training-free and training-based approaches. We first showcase the effectiveness of retrieval reordering as a simple yet powerful training-free optimization. Furthermore, we explore training-based methods, specifically RAG-specific implicit LLM fine-tuning and RAG-oriented fine-tuning with intermediate reasoning, demonstrating their capacity for substantial performance gains. Finally, we conduct a systematic analysis of design choices for these training-based methods, including data distribution, retriever selection, and training context length.

Russia unleashed an overnight drone attack across Ukraine targeting the capital Kyiv and hitting infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said. The State Emergency Service said one person was injured and warehouses and cargo trucks damaged in Odesa during the multi-wave attack, which kept much of the country under air-raid alert for several hours. The Ukrainian Air Force said the Russian attack involved 87 attack drones and four missiles. Air defence units destroyed 56 of the drones and two of the missiles, the Air Force said. Anti-Kremlin activist Ildar Dadin, who was jailed in Russia for protesting against President Vladimir Putin, was killed on the front line in Ukraine where he was fighting alongside Kyiv's forces, his relatives and Russian media said.

Predicting the long-term behavior of chaotic systems remains a formidable challenge due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and the inherent limitations of traditional data-driven modeling approaches. This paper introduces a novel framework that addresses these challenges by leveraging the recently proposed multi-step penalty (MP) optimization technique. Our approach extends the applicability of MP optimization to a wide range of deep learning architectures, including Fourier Neural Operators and UNETs. By introducing penalized local discontinuities in the forecast trajectory, we effectively handle the non-convexity of loss landscapes commonly encountered in training neural networks for chaotic systems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through its application to two challenging use-cases: the prediction of flow velocity evolution in two-dimensional turbulence and ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. Our results highlight the potential of this approach for accurate and stable long-term prediction of chaotic dynamics, paving the way for new advancements in data-driven modeling of complex natural phenomena.

IceCloudNet is a novel method based on machine learning able to predict high-quality vertically resolved cloud ice water contents (IWC) and ice crystal number concentrations (N$_\textrm{ice}$). The predictions come at the spatio-temporal coverage and resolution of geostationary satellite observations (SEVIRI) and the vertical resolution of active satellite retrievals (DARDAR). IceCloudNet consists of a ConvNeXt-based U-Net and a 3D PatchGAN discriminator model and is trained by predicting DARDAR profiles from co-located SEVIRI images. Despite the sparse availability of DARDAR data due to its narrow overpass, IceCloudNet is able to predict cloud occurrence, spatial structure, and microphysical properties with high precision. The model has been applied to ten years of SEVIRI data, producing a dataset of vertically resolved IWC and N$_\textrm{ice}$ of clouds containing ice with a 3 kmx3 kmx240 mx15 minute resolution in a spatial domain of 30{\deg}W to 30{\deg}E and 30{\deg}S to 30{\deg}N. The produced dataset increases the availability of vertical cloud profiles, for the period when DARDAR is available, by more than six orders of magnitude and moreover, IceCloudNet is able to produce vertical cloud profiles beyond the lifetime of the recently ended satellite missions underlying DARDAR.

This work explores sequential model editing in large language models (LLMs), a critical task that involves modifying internal knowledge within LLMs continuously through multi-round editing, each incorporating updates or corrections to adjust the model outputs without the need for costly retraining. Existing model editing methods, especially those that alter model parameters, typically focus on single-round editing and often face significant challenges in sequential model editing-most notably issues of model forgetting and failure. To address these challenges, we introduce a new model editing method, namely \textbf{N}euron-level \textbf{S}equential \textbf{E}diting (NSE), tailored for supporting sequential model editing. Specifically, we optimize the target layer's hidden states using the model's original weights to prevent model failure. Furthermore, we iteratively select neurons in multiple layers for editing based on their activation values to mitigate model forgetting. Our empirical experiments demonstrate that NSE significantly outperforms current modifying parameters model editing methods, marking a substantial advancement in the field of sequential model editing. Our code is released on \url{https://github.com/jianghoucheng/NSE}.