Does the People's Republic of China (PRC) interfere with European elections through ethnic Chinese diaspora media? This question forms the basis of an ongoing research project exploring how PRC narratives about European elections are represented in Chinese diaspora media, and thus the objectives of PRC news media manipulation. In order to study diaspora media efficiently and at scale, it is necessary to use techniques derived from quantitative text analysis, such as topic modelling. In this paper, we present a pipeline for studying information dynamics in Chinese media. Firstly, we present KeyNMF, a new approach to static and dynamic topic modelling using transformer-based contextual embedding models. We provide benchmark evaluations to demonstrate that our approach is competitive on a number of Chinese datasets and metrics. Secondly, we integrate KeyNMF with existing methods for describing information dynamics in complex systems. We apply this pipeline to data from five news sites, focusing on the period of time leading up to the 2024 European parliamentary elections. Our methods and results demonstrate the effectiveness of KeyNMF for studying information dynamics in Chinese media and lay groundwork for further work addressing the broader research questions.

In this work, we propose Table-LLM-Specialist, or Table-Specialist for short, as a new self-trained fine-tuning paradigm specifically designed for table tasks. Our insight is that for each table task, there often exist two dual versions of the same task, one generative and one classification in nature. Leveraging their duality, we propose a Generator-Validator paradigm, to iteratively generate-then-validate training data from language-models, to fine-tune stronger \sys models that can specialize in a given task, without requiring manually-labeled data. Our extensive evaluations suggest that our Table-Specialist has (1) \textit{strong performance} on diverse table tasks over vanilla language-models -- for example, Table-Specialist fine-tuned on GPT-3.5 not only outperforms vanilla GPT-3.5, but can often match or surpass GPT-4 level quality, (2) \textit{lower cost} to deploy, because when Table-Specialist fine-tuned on GPT-3.5 achieve GPT-4 level quality, it becomes possible to deploy smaller models with lower latency and inference cost, with comparable quality, and (3) \textit{better generalizability} when evaluated across multiple benchmarks, since \sys is fine-tuned on a broad range of training data systematically generated from diverse real tables. Our code and data will be available at https://github.com/microsoft/Table-LLM-Specialist.

Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on the contextual information embedded in examples/demonstrations to perform in-context learning (ICL). To mitigate the risk of LLMs potentially leaking private information contained in examples in the prompt, we introduce a novel data-adaptive differentially private algorithm called AdaDPSyn to generate synthetic examples from the private dataset and then use these synthetic examples to perform ICL. The objective of AdaDPSyn is to adaptively adjust the noise level in the data synthesis mechanism according to the inherent statistical properties of the data, thereby preserving high ICL accuracy while maintaining formal differential privacy guarantees. A key innovation in AdaDPSyn is the Precision-Focused Iterative Radius Reduction technique, which dynamically refines the aggregation radius - the scope of data grouping for noise addition - based on patterns observed in data clustering, thereby minimizing the amount of additive noise. We conduct extensive experiments on standard benchmarks and compare AdaDPSyn with DP few-shot generation algorithm (Tang et al., 2023). The experiments demonstrate that AdaDPSyn not only outperforms DP few-shot generation, but also maintains high accuracy levels close to those of non-private baselines, providing an effective solution for ICL with privacy protection.

The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel data-driven approach for sea ice condition forecasting in the Gulf of Ob, leveraging sequences of radar images from Sentinel-1, weather observations, and GLORYS forecasts. Our approach integrates advanced video prediction models, originally developed for vision tasks, with domain-specific data preprocessing and augmentation techniques tailored to the unique challenges of Arctic sea ice dynamics. Central to our methodology is the use of uncertainty quantification to assess the reliability of predictions, ensuring robust decision-making in safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we propose a confidence-based model mixture mechanism that enhances forecast accuracy and model robustness, crucial for reliable operations in volatile Arctic environments. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements over baseline approaches, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification and specialized data handling for effective and safe operations and reliable forecasting.

Previous text-to-SQL datasets and systems have primarily focused on user questions with clear intentions that can be answered. However, real user questions can often be ambiguous with multiple interpretations or unanswerable due to a lack of relevant data. In this work, we construct a practical conversational text-to-SQL dataset called PRACTIQ, consisting of ambiguous and unanswerable questions inspired by real-world user questions. We first identified four categories of ambiguous questions and four categories of unanswerable questions by studying existing text-to-SQL datasets. Then, we generate conversations with four turns: the initial user question, an assistant response seeking clarification, the user's clarification, and the assistant's clarified SQL response with the natural language explanation of the execution results. For some ambiguous queries, we also directly generate helpful SQL responses, that consider multiple aspects of ambiguity, instead of requesting user clarification. To benchmark the performance on ambiguous, unanswerable, and answerable questions, we implemented large language model (LLM)-based baselines using various LLMs. Our approach involves two steps: question category classification and clarification SQL prediction. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art systems struggle to handle ambiguous and unanswerable questions effectively. We will release our code for data generation and experiments on GitHub.

A mysterious fleet of drones entered restricted airspace and swarmed a U.S. military base along the Virginia coast for 17 days late last year, stumping the Pentagon, according to a new report. For several nights last December, U.S. military personnel reported witnessing a fleet of unknown unmanned aircraft breach restricted airspace over a stretch of land at Langley Air Force Base along Virginia's shore, the Wall Street Journal first reported. The drones would start to arrive about 45 minutes to an hour after sunset each night, one official reportedly told U.S. Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly, who joined several other officers responsible for the country's most advanced jet fighters, including F-22 Raptors, on a squadron rooftop. Kelly described the first drone he saw as roughly 20 feet long and flying at more than 100 miles an hour, at an altitude of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feet. As many as a dozen or more drones followed, flying across Chesapeake Bay, and then traveling toward Norfolk, Virginia, and through a space overlooking the base for the Navy's SEAL Team Six and Naval Station Norfolk, the world's largest naval port, according to the Journal.

SpaceX has launched its fifth Starship test flight from Texas and returned the rocket's towering first-stage booster back to land for the first time, achieving a novel recovery method involving large metal arms. The rocket's Super Heavy first-stage booster lifted off at 7:25 am (12:25 GMT) on Sunday from SpaceX's launch facilities in Boca Chica, Texas, sending the second-stage Starship rocket on a path in space bound for the Indian Ocean west of Australia, where it will attempt atmospheric reentry followed by a water landing. The Super Heavy booster, after separating from the Starship booster some 74km (46 miles) in altitude, returned to the same area from which it was launched to make its landing attempt, aided by two robotic arms attached to the launch tower. "The tower has caught the rocket!!" SpaceX founder Elon Musk posted on X. Towering almost 121 metres (400 feet), the empty Starship arched over the Gulf of Mexico like the four Starships before it that ended up being destroyed, either soon after liftoff or while ditching into the sea. The last one in June was the most successful yet, completing its flight without exploding.

Tidal energy is one of the key components in increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy. The penetration of tidal energy in the electrical grid depends on the accuracy of tidal current speed forecasting. Modeling inaccuracies hinder forecast accuracy. Previous research has primarily used physical models to forecast tidal current speed. However, tidal current variations influenced by the orbital periods of celestial bodies make accurate physical modeling challenging. Researching the multiple periodicity of tides is crucial for accurately forecasting tidal current speed. In this article, we propose the Wavelet-Enhanced Convolutional Network (WCN) to learn multiple periodicity. The framework embeds intra-period and inter-period variations of one-dimensional tidal current data into the rows and columns of a two-dimensional tensor. Then, the two-dimensional variations of the sequence can be processed by convolutional kernels. We integrate a time-frequency analysis method into the framework to further address local periodic features. Additionally, to enhance the framework's stability, we optimize the framework's hyperparameters with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator algorithm. The proposed framework avoids the lack of learning multiple periodicity. Compared with benchmarks, the proposed framework reduces the mean absolute error and mean square error in 10-step forecasting by, at most, 90.36% and 97.56%, respectively.

Epileptic seizures cause abnormal brain activity, and their unpredictability can lead to accidents, underscoring the need for long-term seizure prediction. Although seizures can be predicted by analyzing electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, existing methods often require too many electrode channels or larger models, limiting mobile usability. This paper introduces a SlimSeiz framework that utilizes adaptive channel selection with a lightweight neural network model. SlimSeiz operates in two states: the first stage selects the optimal channel set for seizure prediction using machine learning algorithms, and the second stage employs a lightweight neural network based on convolution and Mamba for prediction. On the Children's Hospital Boston-MIT (CHB-MIT) EEG dataset, SlimSeiz can reduce channels from 22 to 8 while achieving a satisfactory result of 94.8% accuracy, 95.5% sensitivity, and 94.0% specificity with only 21.2K model parameters, matching or outperforming larger models' performance. We also validate SlimSeiz on a new EEG dataset, SRH-LEI, collected from Shanghai Renji Hospital, demonstrating its effectiveness across different patients. The code and SRH-LEI dataset are available at https://github.com/guoruilu/SlimSeiz.

Complex systems can undergo critical transitions, where slowly changing environmental conditions trigger a sudden shift to a new, potentially catastrophic state. Early warning signals for these events are crucial for decision-making in fields such as ecology, biology and climate science. Generic early warning signals motivated by dynamical systems theory have had mixed success on real noisy data. More recent studies found that deep learning classifiers trained on synthetic data could improve performance. However, neither of these methods take advantage of historical, system-specific data. Here, we introduce an approach that trains machine learning classifiers directly on surrogate data of past transitions, namely surrogate data-based machine learning (SDML). The approach provides early warning signals in empirical and experimental data from geology, climatology, sociology, and cardiology with higher sensitivity and specificity than two widely used generic early warning signals -- variance and lag-1 autocorrelation. Since the approach is trained directly on surrogates of historical data, it is not bound by the restricting assumption of a local bifurcation like previous methods. This system-specific approach can contribute to improved early warning signals to help humans better prepare for or avoid undesirable critical transitions.