This paper presents a novel deep learning framework for estimating multivariate joint extremes of metocean variables, based on the Semi-Parametric Angular-Radial (SPAR) model. When considered in polar coordinates, the problem of modelling multivariate extremes is transformed to one of modelling an angular density, and the tail of a univariate radial variable conditioned on angle. In the SPAR approach, the tail of the radial variable is modelled using a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution, providing a natural extension of univariate extreme value theory to the multivariate setting. In this work, we show how the method can be applied in higher dimensions, using a case study for five metocean variables: wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave period and wave direction. The angular variable is modelled empirically, while the parameters of the GP model are approximated using fully-connected deep neural networks. Our data-driven approach provides great flexibility in the dependence structures that can be represented, together with computationally efficient routines for training the model. Furthermore, the application of the method requires fewer assumptions about the underlying distribution(s) compared to existing approaches, and an asymptotically justified means for extrapolating outside the range of observations. Using various diagnostic plots, we show that the fitted models provide a good description of the joint extremes of the metocean variables considered.

The police chief of a small Nebraska city has come forward with a warning for New Jersey after his community was terrorized by mystery drones. Ord, Nebraska Police Chief Chris Grooms revealed to DailyMail.com Across nearly three weeks of nighttime encounters, typically between 7pm and 11pm, these inexplicable SUV-sized drones operated'with impunity,' Chief Grooms said, and sometimes seemed to be'toying with law enforcement.' 'A lot of reports by ranchers stated that these objects were harassing their horses or cattle on a nightly basis,' he added. Some of the drones reached speeds of 120mph.

Despite the significant progress made by existing retrieval augmented language models (RALMs) in providing trustworthy responses and grounding in reliable sources, they often overlook effective alignment with human preferences. In the alignment process, reward models (RMs) act as a crucial proxy for human values to guide optimization. However, it remains unclear how to evaluate and select a reliable RM for preference alignment in RALMs. To this end, we propose RAG-RewardBench, the first benchmark for evaluating RMs in RAG settings. First, we design four crucial and challenging RAG-specific scenarios to assess RMs, including multi-hop reasoning, fine-grained citation, appropriate abstain, and conflict robustness. Then, we incorporate 18 RAG subsets, six retrievers, and 24 RALMs to increase the diversity of data sources. Finally, we adopt an LLM-as-a-judge approach to improve preference annotation efficiency and effectiveness, exhibiting a strong correlation with human annotations. Based on the RAG-RewardBench, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 45 RMs and uncover their limitations in RAG scenarios. Additionally, we also reveal that existing trained RALMs show almost no improvement in preference alignment, highlighting the need for a shift towards preference-aligned training.We release our benchmark and code publicly at https://huggingface.co/datasets/jinzhuoran/RAG-RewardBench/ for future work.

Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we tackle these shortcomings with an innovative, fast and accurate Transformer which postprocesses each ensemble member individually while allowing information exchange across variables, spatial dimensions and lead times by means of multi-headed self-attention. Weather foreacasts are postprocessed over 20 lead times simultaneously while including up to twelve meteorological predictors. We use the EUPPBench dataset for training which contains ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts' integrated forecasting system alongside corresponding observations. The work presented here is the first to postprocess the ten and one hundred-meter wind speed forecasts within this benchmark dataset, while also correcting the two-meter temperature. Our approach significantly improves the original forecasts, as measured by the CRPS, with 17.5 % for two-meter temperature, nearly 5% for ten-meter wind speed and 5.3 % for one hundred-meter wind speed, outperforming a classical member-by-member approach employed as competitive benchmark. Furthermore, being up to 75 times faster, it fulfills the demand for rapid operational weather forecasts in various downstream applications, including renewable energy forecasting.

In natural human-to-human conversations, participants often receive feedback signals from one another based on their follow-up reactions. These reactions can include verbal responses, facial expressions, changes in emotional state, and other non-verbal cues. Similarly, in human-machine interactions, the machine can leverage the user's follow-up utterances as feedback signals to assess whether it has appropriately addressed the user's request. Therefore, we propose using the likelihood of follow-up utterances as rewards to differentiate preferred responses from less favored ones, without relying on human or commercial LLM-based preference annotations. Our proposed reward mechanism, ``Follow-up Likelihood as Reward" (FLR), matches the performance of strong reward models trained on large-scale human or GPT-4 annotated data on 8 pairwise-preference and 4 rating-based benchmarks. Building upon the FLR mechanism, we propose to automatically mine preference data from the online generations of a base policy model. The preference data are subsequently used to boost the helpfulness of the base model through direct alignment from preference (DAP) methods, such as direct preference optimization (DPO). Lastly, we demonstrate that fine-tuning the language model that provides follow-up likelihood with natural language feedback significantly enhances FLR's performance on reward modeling benchmarks and effectiveness in aligning the base policy model's helpfulness.

Residents and officials from multiple US states are demanding answers about mysterious drone sightings that have been blamed on everything from foreign governments to alien UFOs. Numerous'SUV-sized' craft first appeared in New Jersey in mid-November, and have since spread to New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. Drone sightings have also been reported in states such as Texas, Oklahoma and California as well as foreign countries such as Germany. But it's unclear whether these reports are related to the activity plaguing the Northeast. In New Jersey, the drones sometimes appear in groups and often remain in the same place for hours at a time, according to eyewitnesses.

Intelligence analysts have revealed why they believe Russia is behind the mysterious drones invading the skies over New Jersey. US Army general Darryl Williams described a situation that mirrors what has unfolded at American/NATO bases across Europe that are known to supply arms to Ukraine. And retired police lieutenant and intelligence analyst Tim McMillan told DailyMail.com Lt McMillan and other experts have noted that the New Jersey sightings circled around Picatinny Arsenal, home of the US Army's CCDC Armaments Center, which is responsible for manufacturing and supplying Ukraine with artillery ammunition. These experts suggest that Russia could be carrying out an intelligence-gathering mission known as'ferreting', meant to intentionally trigger and test their foreign rival's airspace defense procedures and response time.

Gravitational-wave observatories like LIGO are large-scale, terrestrial instruments housed in infrastructure that spans a multi-kilometer geographic area and which must be actively controlled to maintain operational stability for long observation periods. Despite exquisite seismic isolation, they remain susceptible to seismic noise and other terrestrial disturbances that can couple undesirable vibrations into the instrumental infrastructure, potentially leading to control instabilities or noise artifacts in the detector output. It is, therefore, critical to characterize the seismic state of these observatories to identify a set of temporal patterns that can inform the detector operators in day-to-day monitoring and diagnostics. On a day-to-day basis, the operators monitor several seismically relevant data streams to diagnose operational instabilities and sources of noise using some simple empirically-determined thresholds. It can be untenable for a human operator to monitor multiple data streams in this manual fashion and thus a distillation of these data-streams into a more human-friendly format is sought. In this paper, we present an end-to-end machine learning pipeline for features-based multivariate time series clustering to achieve this goal and to provide actionable insights to the detector operators by correlating found clusters with events of interest in the detector.

You've seen the Game awards nominations. Our own Guardian games of the year list is still a wee while away, but while you're waiting – with bated breath, I'm sure – here's an appetiser: Pushing Buttons' alternative awards. Need to recover your hearts while adventuring through a bunch of eerie rifts that are tearing Hyrule apart? Simply conjure a bed out of thin air, make sure you're out of enemy reach and have a wee nap. Need to make your way across a bridgeable gap?

The latest footage of bizarre drones in New Jersey captured several craft orbiting each other over Somerset County, while at least 12 counties have reported sightings. The video, released this week, shows three'mystery drones in the air' as two move extremely close as if they are interacting with each other and the third hovered for'about 15 minutes.' New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said Monday night that the drones are'very sophisticated, explaining: 'The minute we get eyes on them [the drones], they go dark.' 'I don't blame people for being frustrated,' Gov Murphy continued, adding that he had spent most of Sunday coordinating on the issue with both the White House and the US Department of Homeland Security in the hope of getting answers. He said that the state received 49 sighting reports on Sunday night alone, with hundreds of locals sharing experiences on social media platforms. On Monday, Picatinny Arsenal, the Army facility in Morris County, confirmed it has had 11 sightings of'UFOs' over in its airspace in recent weeks.