A central problem in applied data analysis is time series In this paper, we develop a tractable approach to maximum modeling--estimating and forecasting a discrete-time likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic multivariate stochastic process--for which the autoregressive moving ARMA models. To efficiently compute a globally average (ARMA) and stochastic ARMA (Thiesson et al. optimal estimate, the problem is re-expressed as a regularized 2012) are fundamental models. An ARMA model describes loss minimization, which then allows recent algorithmic the behavior of a linear dynamical system under advances in sparse estimation to be applied (Shah et al. latent Gaussian perturbations (Brockwell and Davis 2002; 2012; Candes et al. 2011; Bach, Mairal, and Ponce 2008; Lütkepohl 2007), which affords intuitive modeling capability, Zhang et al. 2011; White et al. 2012). Although there has efficient forecasting algorithms, and a close relationship been recent progress in global estimation for ARMA, such to linear Gaussian state-space models (Katayama 2006, approaches have either been restricted to single-input singleoutput pp.5-6).

Mesoscale ocean eddies are a critical component of the Earth System as they dominate the ocean's kinetic energy and impact the global distribution of oceanic heat, salinity, momentum, and nutrients. Therefore, accurately representing these dynamic features is critical for our planet's sustainability. The majority of methods that identify eddies from satellite observations analyze the data in a frame-by-frame basis despite the fact that eddies are dynamic objects that propagate across space and time. We introduce the notion of spatio-temporal consistency to identify eddies in a continuous spatio-temporal field, to simultaneously ensure that the features detected are both spatially and temporally consistent. Our spatio-temporal consistency approach allows us to remove most of the expert criteria used in traditional methods to reduce false negatives. The removal of arbitrary heuristics enables us to render more complete eddy dynamics by identifying smaller and longer lived eddies compared to existing methods.

Swirls of ocean currents known as ocean eddies are a crucial component of the ocean's dynamics. In addition to dominating the ocean's kinetic energy, eddies play a significant role in the transport of water, salt, heat, and nutrients. Therefore, understanding current and future eddy patterns is a central climate challenge to address future sustainability of marine ecosystems. The emergence of sea surface height observations from satellite radar altimeter has recently enabled researchers to track eddies at a global scale. The majority of studies that identify eddies from observational data employ highly parametrized connected component algorithms using expert filtered data, effectively making reproducibility and scalability challenging. In this paper, we frame the challenge of monitoring ocean eddies as an unsupervised learning problem. We present a novel change detection algorithm that automatically identifies and monitors eddies in sea surface height data based on heuristics derived from basic eddy properties. Our method is accurate, efficient, and scalable. To demonstrate its performance we analyze eddy activity in the Nordic Sea (60-80N and 20W-20E), an area that has received limited attention and has proven to be difficult to analyze using other methods.

Existing ship scheduling approaches either ignore constraints on ship draft (distance between the waterline and the keel), or model these in very simple ways, such as a constant draft limit that does not change with time. However, in most ports the draft restriction changes over time due to variation in environmental conditions. More accurate consideration of draft constraints would allow more cargo to be scheduled for transport on the same set of ships. We present constraint programming (CP) and mixed integer programming (MIP) models for the problem of scheduling ships at a port with time-varying draft constraints so as to optimise cargo throughput at the port. We also investigate the effect of several variations to the CP model, including a model containing sequence variables, and a model with ordered inputs. Our model allows us to solve realistic instances of the problem to optimality in a very short time, and produces better schedules than both scheduling with constant draft, and manual scheduling approaches used in practice at ports.

Mapping and tracking biological ocean features, such as harmful algal blooms, is an important problem in the environmental sciences. The problem exhibits a high degree of uncertainty, because of both the dynamic ocean context and the challenges of sensing. Plan-based policy learning has been shown to be a powerful technique for obtaining robust intelligent behaviour in the face of uncertainty. In this paper we apply this technique in simulation, to the problem of tracking the outer edge of 2D biological features, such as the surfaces of harmful algal blooms. We show that plan-based policy-learning leads to highly accurate tracking in simulation, even in situations where the uncertainty governing the shape of the patch cannot be directly modelled. We present simulation results that give confidence that the approach could work in practice. We are now collaborating with ocean scientists at MBARI to perform physical tests at sea.

In this paper we describe a complex adaptive systems model of interactions between coupled human and natural system. We use learning classifier systems to create adaptive agents in a simulation of the Maine lobster fishery to explore the relationships among ecological, economic, and social characteristics. Our hypothesis is that the cost of information and learning drives agents' decisions to compete or co-operate and, consequently, the emergence of long-term relationships. Initial results provide tentative support for the hypothesis and the ability of this model to provide insight into the dynamics of individual interactions and the social relationships that emerge from those interactions.

A challenge to modeling and monitoring the health of the ocean environment is that it is largely under sensed and difficult to sense remotely. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) can improve observability, for example of algal bloom regions, ocean acidification, and ocean circulation. This AUV paradigm, however, requires robust operation that is cost effective and responsive to the environment. To achieve low cost we generate operational sequences automatically from science goals, and achieve robustness by reasoning about the discrete and continuous effects of actions. We introduce Kongming2, a generative planner for hybrid systems with temporally extended goals (TEGs) and temporally flexible actions. It takes as input high level goals and outputs trajectories and actions of the hybrid system, for example an AUV. Kongming2 makes two major extensions to Kongming1: planning for TEGs, and planning with temporally flexible actions. We demonstrated a proof of concept of the planner in the Atlantic ocean on Odyssey IV, an AUV designed and built by the MIT AUV Lab at Sea Grant.

Social media and networking websites, such as Twitter and Facebook, generate large quantities of information and have become mechanisms for real-time content dissipation to users. An important question that arises is: how do we sample such social media information spaces in order to deliver relevant content on a topic to end users? Notice that these large-scale information spaces are inherently diverse, featuring a wide array of attributes such as location, recency, degree of diffusion effects in the network and so on. Naturally, for the end user, different levels of diversity in social media content can significantly impact the information consumption experience: low diversity can provide focused content that may be simpler to understand, while high diversity can increase breadth in the exposure to multiple opinions and perspectives. Hence to address our research question, we turn to diversity as a core concept in our proposed sampling methodology. Here we are motivated by ideas in the "compressive sensing" literature and utilize the notion of sparsity in social media information to represent such large spaces via a small number of basis components. Thereafter we use a greedy iterative clustering technique on this transformed space to construct samples matching a desired level of diversity. Based on Twitter Firehose data, we demonstrate quantitatively that our method is robust, and performs better than other baseline techniques over a variety of trending topics. In a user study, we further show that users find samples generated by our method to be more interesting and subjectively engaging compared to techniques inspired by state-of-the-art systems, with improvements in the range of 15--45%.

Information extraction systems have been recently proposed for organizing and exploring content in large online text corpora as information networks . In such networks, the nodes are named entities (e.g., people, organizations) while the edges correspond to statements indicating relations among such entities. To date, such systems extract rather primitive networks, capturing only those relations which are expressed by direct statements. In many applications, it is useful to also extract more subtle relations which are often expressed as meta statements in the text. These can, for instance provide the context for a statement (e.g., “Google acquired YouTube on October 2006”), or repercussion about a statement (e.g., “The US condemned Russia’s invasion of Georgia”). In this work, we report on a system for extracting relations expressed in both direct statements as well as in meta statements. We propose a method based on Conditional Random Fields that explores syntactic features to extract both kinds of statements seamlessly. We follow the Open Information Extraction paradigm, where a classifier is trained to recognize any type of relation instead of specific ones. Finally, our results show substantial improvements over a state-of-the-art information extraction system, both in terms of accuracy and, especially, recall.

This paper presents our work on development of OWL-driven systems for formal representation and reasoning about terminological knowledge and facts in petrology. The long-term aim of our project is to provide solid foundations for a large-scale integration of various kinds of knowledge, including basic terms, rock classification algorithms, findings and reports. We describe three steps we have taken towards that goal here. First, we develop a semi-automated procedure for transforming a database of igneous rock samples to texts in a controlled natural language (CNL), and then a collection of OWL ontologies. Second, we create an OWL ontology of important petrology terms currently described in natural language thesauri. We describe a prototype of a tool for collecting definitions from domain experts. Third, we present an approach to formalization of current industrial standards for classification of rock samples, which requires linear equations in OWL 2. In conclusion, we discuss a range of opportunities arising from the use of semantic technologies in petrology and outline the future work in this area.