On Saturday, October 29, a Russian fleet on the Black Sea near Sevastopol was attacked by 16 drones--nine in the air and seven in the water. Purportedly launched by Ukraine, no one knows how much damage was done, but video shot by the attacking drones showed that the vessels were unable to avoid being hit. In response to that and other successful attacks, Russia has retaliated with scores of missiles and Iranian-built Shahed-136 drones aimed at electrical and water systems throughout Ukraine. Despite daily reports of lands taken or lands liberated in the nine-month war, the conflict has been largely fought in the air, with artillery shells, rockets, cruise missiles, and, increasingly, drones. Small, cheap, relatively slow-moving, carrying far less of a wallop than a cruise missile or a 500-pound bomb, the Shaheds in particular have bedeviled Ukraine's otherwise excellent air defenses.

As a futurist, it's my job to look ahead -- so every year, I cover the emerging tech trends that will be shaping our digital world in the next 12 months. What technologies are gaining the most traction? What are the most important trends that business leaders should be prepared for? Read on for the ten essential tech trends you should be following in 2023. In 2023, artificial intelligence will become real in organizations.

This work presents two astonishing findings on neural networks learned for large-scale image classification. 1) Given a well-trained model, the logits predicted for some category can be directly obtained by linearly combining the predictions of a few other categories, which we call \textbf{neural dependency}. 2) Neural dependencies exist not only within a single model, but even between two independently learned models, regardless of their architectures. Towards a theoretical analysis of such phenomena, we demonstrate that identifying neural dependencies is equivalent to solving the Covariance Lasso (CovLasso) regression problem proposed in this paper. Through investigating the properties of the problem solution, we confirm that neural dependency is guaranteed by a redundant logit covariance matrix, which condition is easily met given massive categories, and that neural dependency is highly sparse, implying that one category correlates to only a few others. We further empirically show the potential of neural dependencies in understanding internal data correlations, generalizing models to unseen categories, and improving model robustness with a dependency-derived regularizer. Code for this work will be made publicly available.

Biofouling is a major challenge for sustainable shipping, filter membranes, heat exchangers, and medical devices. The development of fouling-resistant coatings requires the evaluation of their effectiveness. Such an evaluation is usually based on the assessment of fouling progression after different exposure times to the target medium (e.g., salt water). The manual assessment of macrofouling requires expert knowledge about local fouling communities due to high variances in phenotypical appearance, has single-image sampling inaccuracies for certain species, and lacks spatial information. Here we present an approach for automatic image-based macrofouling analysis. We created a dataset with dense labels prepared from field panel images and propose a convolutional network (adapted U-Net) for the semantic segmentation of different macrofouling classes. The establishment of macrofouling localization allows for the generation of a successional model which enables the determination of direct surface attachment and in-depth epibiotic studies.

Studying under-represented music traditions under the MIR scope is crucial, not only for developing novel analysis tools, but also for unveiling musical functions that might prove useful in studying world musics. This paper presents a dataset for Greek Traditional and Folk music that includes 1570 pieces, summing in around 80 hours of data. The dataset incorporates YouTube timestamped links for retrieving audio and video, along with rich metadata information with regards to instrumentation, geography and genre, among others. The content has been collected from a Greek documentary series that is available online, where academics present music traditions of Greece with live music and dance performance during the show, along with discussions about social, cultural and musicological aspects of the presented music. Therefore, this procedure has resulted in a significant wealth of descriptions regarding a variety of aspects, such as musical genre, places of origin and musical instruments. In addition, the audio recordings were performed under strict production-level specifications, in terms of recording equipment, leading to very clean and homogeneous audio content. In this work, apart from presenting the dataset in detail, we propose a baseline deep-learning classification approach to recognize the involved musicological attributes. The dataset, the baseline classification methods and the models are provided in public repositories. Future directions for further refining the dataset are also discussed.

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we explore the potential for deep learning systems trained on historical data to forecast extreme heat on short, medium and subseasonal timescales. To this purpose, we train a set of neural weather models (NWMs) with convolutional architectures to forecast surface temperature anomalies globally, 1 to 28 days ahead, at $\sim200~\mathrm{km}$ resolution and on the cubed sphere. The NWMs are trained using the ERA5 reanalysis product and a set of candidate loss functions, including the mean squared error and exponential losses targeting extremes. We find that training models to minimize custom losses tailored to emphasize extremes leads to significant skill improvements in the heat wave prediction task, compared to NWMs trained on the mean squared error loss. This improvement is accomplished with almost no skill reduction in the general temperature prediction task, and it can be efficiently realized through transfer learning, by re-training NWMs with the custom losses for a few epochs. In addition, we find that the use of a symmetric exponential loss reduces the smoothing of NWM forecasts with lead time. Our best NWM is able to outperform persistence in a regressive sense for all lead times and temperature anomaly thresholds considered, and shows positive regressive skill compared to the ECMWF subseasonal-to-seasonal control forecast after two weeks.

Optimal Interpolation (OI) is a widely used, highly trusted algorithm for interpolation and reconstruction problems in geosciences. With the influx of more satellite missions, we have access to more and more observations and it is becoming more pertinent to take advantage of these observations in applications such as forecasting and reanalysis. With the increase in the volume of available data, scalability remains an issue for standard OI and it prevents many practitioners from effectively and efficiently taking advantage of these large sums of data to learn the model hyperparameters. In this work, we leverage recent advances in Neural Fields (NerFs) as an alternative to the OI framework where we show how they can be easily applied to standard reconstruction problems in physical oceanography. We illustrate the relevance of NerFs for gap-filling of sparse measurements of sea surface height (SSH) via satellite altimetry and demonstrate how NerFs are scalable with comparable results to the standard OI. We find that NerFs are a practical set of methods that can be readily applied to geoscience interpolation problems and we anticipate a wider adoption in the future.

Streamflow observation data is vital for flood monitoring, agricultural, and settlement planning. However, such streamflow data are commonly plagued with missing observations due to various causes such as harsh environmental conditions and constrained operational resources. This problem is often more pervasive in under-resourced areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa. In this work, we reconstruct streamflow time series data through bias correction of the GEOGloWS ECMWF streamflow service (GESS) forecasts at ten river gauging stations in Benin Republic. We perform bias correction by fitting Quantile Mapping, Gaussian Process, and Elastic Net regression in a constrained training period. We show by simulating missingness in a testing period that GESS forecasts have a significant bias that results in low predictive skill over the ten Beninese stations. Our findings suggest that overall bias correction by Elastic Net and Gaussian Process regression achieves superior skill relative to traditional imputation by Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbour, and GESS lookup. The findings of this work provide a basis for integrating global GESS streamflow data into operational early-warning decision-making systems (e.g., flood alert) in countries vulnerable to drought and flooding due to extreme weather events.

We address Lagrangian drift simulation in geophysical dynamics and explore deep learning approaches to overcome known limitations of state-of-the-art model-based and Markovian approaches in terms of computational complexity and error propagation. We introduce a novel architecture, referred to as DriftNet, inspired from the Eulerian Fokker-Planck representation of Lagrangian dynamics. Numerical experiments for Lagrangian drift simulation at the sea surface demonstrates the relevance of DriftNet w.r.t. state-of-the-art schemes. Benefiting from the fully-convolutional nature of Drift-Net, we explore through a neural inversion how to diagnose modelderived velocities w.r.t. real drifter trajectories.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has shared footage of what appeared to be an air defense system destroying an object amid reports that Ukraine was able to shoot down more than 70 Russian cruise missiles in one day. Russian forces launched about 100 missiles on Ukraine Tuesday, Ukrinform reported, citing Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat. Russia's previous heaviest attack was on Oct. 10, which involved 84 projectiles. Ukrainian air defenses were able to destroy 73 of the Russian cruise missiles, 10 Iranian-made Shahed 131 or 136 drones as well as one Orion unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during the most recent bombardment. "This is how our air defenses shot down 73 cruise missiles today," the MOD said in a post that included footage of what appeared to be an air defense system destroying an object.