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Continuous PDE Dynamics Forecasting with Implicit Neural Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.


Using Artificial Intelligence to aid Scientific Discovery of Climate Tipping Points

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and mathematical methods for modeling dynamical systems. The simulations are grounded by a neuro-symbolic language that both enables question answering of what is learned by the AI methods and provides a means of explainability. We describe how this methodology can be applied to the discovery of climate tipping points and, in particular, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show how this methodology is able to predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy using a surrogate climate model for ocean interaction. We also show preliminary results of neuro-symbolic method performance when translating between natural language questions and symbolically learned representations. Our AI methodology shows promising early results, potentially enabling faster climate tipping point related research that would otherwise be computationally infeasible.


An unsupervised learning approach for predicting wind farm power and downstream wakes using weather patterns

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical models, but such models are too computationally intensive to consider multi-year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify a small number of representative weather patterns to simulate long-term behaviour. Here we develop a novel wind energy workflow that for the first time combines weather patterns derived from unsupervised clustering techniques with numerical weather prediction models (here WRF) to obtain efficient and accurate long-term predictions of power and downstream wakes from an entire wind farm. We use ERA5 reanalysis data clustering not only on low altitude pressure but also, for the first time, on the more relevant variable of wind velocity. We also compare the use of large-scale and local-scale domains for clustering. A WRF simulation is run at each of the cluster centres and the results are aggregated using a novel post-processing technique. By applying our workflow to two different regions, we show that our long-term predictions agree with those from a year of WRF simulations but require less than 2% of the computational time. The most accurate results are obtained when clustering on wind velocity. Moreover, clustering over the Europe-wide domain is sufficient for predicting wind farm power output, but downstream wake predictions benefit from the use of smaller domains. Finally, we show that these downstream wakes can affect the local weather patterns. Our approach facilitates multi-year predictions of power output and downstream farm wakes, by providing a fast, accurate and flexible methodology that is applicable to any global region. Moreover, these accurate long-term predictions of downstream wakes provide the first tool to help mitigate the effects of wind energy loss downstream of wind farms, since they can be used to determine optimum wind farm locations.


From Traditional Adaptive Data Caching to Adaptive Context Caching: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Context information is in demand more than ever with the rapid increase in the number of context-aware Internet of Things applications developed worldwide. Research in context and context-awareness is being conducted to broaden its applicability in light of many practical and technical challenges. One of the challenges is improving performance when responding to a large number of context queries. Context Management Platforms that infer and deliver context to applications measure this problem using Quality of Service (QoS) parameters. Although caching is a proven way to improve QoS, transiency of context and features such as variability and heterogeneity of context queries pose an additional real-time cost management problem. This paper presents a critical survey of the state-of-the-art in adaptive data caching with the objective of developing a body of knowledge in cost- and performance-efficient adaptive caching strategies. We comprehensively survey a large number of research publications and evaluate, compare, and contrast different techniques, policies, approaches, and schemes in adaptive caching. Our critical analysis is motivated by the focus on adaptively caching context as a core research problem. A formal definition for adaptive context caching is then proposed, followed by identified features and requirements of a well-designed, objective optimal adaptive context caching strategy.


An adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic for the multi-port continuous berth allocation problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study a problem that integrates the vessel scheduling problem with the berth allocation into a collaborative problem denoted as the multi-port continuous berth allocation problem (MCBAP). This problem optimizes the berth allocation of a set of ships simultaneously in multiple ports while also considering the sailing speed of ships between ports. Due to the highly combinatorial character of the problem, exact methods struggle to scale to large-size instances, which points to exploring heuristic methods. We present a mixed-integer problem formulation for the MCBAP and introduce an adaptive large neighborhood search (ALNS) algorithm enhanced with a local search procedure to solve it. The computational results highlight the method's suitability for larger instances by providing high-quality solutions in short computational times. Practical insights indicate that the carriers' and terminal operators' operational costs are impacted in different ways by fuel prices, external ships at port, and the modeling of a continuous quay.


Numeracy from Literacy: Data Science as an Emergent Skill from Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Previous publicly-available transformer models from eighteen months prior and 1000 times smaller failed to provide basic arithmetic. The statistical analysis of four complex datasets described here combines arithmetic manipulations that cannot be memorized or encoded by simple rules. The work examines whether next-token prediction succeeds from sentence completion into the realm of actual numerical understanding. For example, the work highlights cases for descriptive statistics on in-memory datasets that the LLM initially loads from memory or generates randomly using python libraries. The resulting exploratory data analysis showcases the model's capabilities to group by or pivot categorical sums, infer feature importance, derive correlations, and predict unseen test cases using linear regression. To extend the model's testable range, the research deletes and appends random rows such that recall alone cannot explain emergent numeracy.


Iran suffers drone strike days after US and Israel launched joint military drill in the region

FOX News

U.S. Central Command and the IDF are taking part in a joint-military exercise known as'Juniper Oak,' that is taking place in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. An explosion at an Iranian military facility Saturday evening, which authorities said was the result of a drone strike, comes just days after the United States and Israel conducted joint military drills in the region. Iran's authorities announced Saturday that bomb-carrying drones targeted a "workshop" that operates for the Iranian Ministry of Defense in the central city of Isfahan, causing some damage. The officials did not disclose what the factory produces and said the attack was "unsuccessful." "One of (the drones) was hit by the ... air defense and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up. Fortunately, this unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life and caused minor damage to the workshop's roof," Iranian defense officials said in a statement, according to state news agency IRNA.


How learners produce data from text in classifying clickbait

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Text provides a compelling example of unstructured data that can be used to motivate and explore classification problems. Challenges arise regarding the representation of features of text and student linkage between text representations as character strings and identification of features that embed connections with underlying phenomena. In order to observe how students reason with text data in scenarios designed to elicit certain aspects of the domain, we employed a task-based interview method using a structured protocol with six pairs of undergraduate students. Our goal was to shed light on students' understanding of text as data using a motivating task to classify headlines as "clickbait" or "news". Three types of features (function, content, and form) surfaced, the majority from the first scenario. Our analysis of the interviews indicates that this sequence of activities engaged the participants in thinking at both the human-perception level and the computer-extraction level and conceptualizing connections between them.


Inspecting class hierarchies in classification-based metric learning models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most classification models treat all misclassifications equally. However, different classes may be related, and these hierarchical relationships must be considered in some classification problems. These problems can be addressed by using hierarchical information during training. Unfortunately, this information is not available for all datasets. Many classification-based metric learning methods use class representatives in embedding space to represent different classes. The relationships among the learned class representatives can then be used to estimate class hierarchical structures. If we have a predefined class hierarchy, the learned class representatives can be assessed to determine whether the metric learning model learned semantic distances that match our prior knowledge. In this work, we train a softmax classifier and three metric learning models with several training options on benchmark and real-world datasets. In addition to the standard classification accuracy, we evaluate the hierarchical inference performance by inspecting learned class representatives and the hierarchy-informed performance, i.e., the classification performance, and the metric learning performance by considering predefined hierarchical structures. Furthermore, we investigate how the considered measures are affected by various models and training options. When our proposed ProxyDR model is trained without using predefined hierarchical structures, the hierarchical inference performance is significantly better than that of the popular NormFace model. Additionally, our model enhances some hierarchy-informed performance measures under the same training options. We also found that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with random weights correspond to the predefined hierarchies better than random chance.


Accelerating Domain-aware Deep Learning Models with Distributed Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in data-generating techniques led to an explosive growth of geo-spatiotemporal data. In domains such as hydrology, ecology, and transportation, interpreting the complex underlying patterns of spatiotemporal interactions with the help of deep learning techniques hence becomes the need of the hour. However, applying deep learning techniques without domain-specific knowledge tends to provide sub-optimal prediction performance. Secondly, training such models on large-scale data requires extensive computational resources. To eliminate these challenges, we present a novel distributed domain-aware spatiotemporal network that utilizes domain-specific knowledge with improved model performance. Our network consists of a pixel-contribution block, a distributed multiheaded multichannel convolutional (CNN) spatial block, and a recurrent temporal block. We choose flood prediction in hydrology as a use case to test our proposed method. From our analysis, the network effectively predicts high peaks in discharge measurements at watershed outlets with up to 4.1x speedup and increased prediction performance of up to 93\%. Our approach achieved a 12.6x overall speedup and increased the mean prediction performance by 16\%. We perform extensive experiments on a dataset of 23 watersheds in a northern state of the U.S. and present our findings.