The well-established practice of time series analysis involves estimating deterministic, non-stationary trend and seasonality components followed by learning the residual stochastic, stationary components. Recently, it has been shown that one can learn the deterministic non-stationary components accurately using multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (mSSA) in the absence of a correlated stationary component; meanwhile, in the absence of deterministic non-stationary components, the Autoregressive (AR) stationary component can also be learnt readily, e.g.

Despite the tremendous success of reinforcement learning (RL) with function approximation, efficient exploration remains a significant challenge, both practically and theoretically. In particular, existing theoretically grounded RL algorithms based on upper confidence bounds (UCBs), such as optimistic least-squares value iteration (LSVI), are often incompatible with practically powerful function approximators, such as neural networks. In this paper, we develop a variant of bootstrapped LSVI, namely BooVI, which bridges such a gap between practice and theory.

Visual localization is a fundamental task in computer vision and robotics. Training existing visual localization methods requires a large number of posed images to generalize to novel views, while state-of-the-art methods generally require ground truth 3D labels for supervision. However, acquiring a large number of posed images and 3D labels in the real world is challenging and costly. In this paper, we present a novel visual localization method that achieves accurate localization while using only a few posed images compared to other localization methods. To achieve this, we first use a few posed images with coarse pseudo-3D labels provided by NeRF to train a coordinate regression network.

Visual search is a ubiquitous and often challenging daily task, exemplified by looking for the car keys at home or a friend in a crowd. An intriguing property of some classical search tasks is an asymmetry such that finding a target A among distractors B can be easier than finding B among A. To elucidate the mechanisms responsible for asymmetry in visual search, we propose a computational model that takes a target and a search image as inputs and produces a sequence of eye movements until the target is found.

Multimodal regression is a fundamental task, which integrates the information from different sources to improve the performance of follow-up applications. However, existing methods mainly focus on improving the performance and often ignore the confidence of prediction for diverse situations. In this study, we are devoted to trustworthy multimodal regression which is critical in cost-sensitive domains. To this end, we introduce a novel Mixture of Normal-Inverse Gamma distributions (MoNIG) algorithm, which efficiently estimates uncertainty in principle for adaptive integration of different modalities and produces a trustworthy regression result. Our model can be dynamically aware of uncertainty for each modality, and also robust for corrupted modalities. Furthermore, the proposed MoNIG ensures explicitly representation of (modality-specific/global) epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, respectively. Experimental results on both synthetic and different real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and trustworthiness of our method on various multimodal regression tasks (e.g., temperature prediction for superconductivity, relative location prediction for CT slices, and multimodal sentiment analysis3).

Simulation is used extensively in autonomous systems, particularly in robotic manipulation. By far, the most common approach is to train a controller in simulation, and then use it as an initial starting point for the real system. We demonstrate how to learn simultaneously from both simulation and interaction with the real environment. We propose an algorithm for balancing the large number of samples from the high throughput but less accurate simulation and the low-throughput, high-fidelity and costly samples from the real environment. We achieve that by maintaining a replay buffer for each environment the agent interacts with. We analyze such multi-environment interaction theoretically, and provide convergence properties, through a novel theoretical replay buffer analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on a sim-to-real environment.

We provide novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) under the assumptions of smoothness and dissipativity, which are widely used in sampling and non-convex optimization studies. Our bounds are time-independent and decay to zero as the sample size increases, regardless of the number of iterations and whether the step size is fixed. Unlike previous studies, we derive the generalization error bounds by focusing on the time evolution of the Kullback-Leibler divergence, which is related to the stability of datasets and is the upper bound of the mutual information between output parameters and an input dataset. Additionally, we establish the first information-theoretic generalization bound when the training and test loss are the same by showing that a loss function of SGLD is sub-exponential. This bound is also time-independent and removes the problematic step size dependence in existing work, leading to an improved excess risk bound by combining our analysis with the existing non-convex optimization error bounds.

In this paper, we follow Rodomanov and Nesterov [19]'s work to study quasiNewton methods. We focus on the common SR1 and BFGS quasi-Newton methods to establish better explicit (local) superlinear convergence rates. First, based on the greedy quasi-Newton update which greedily selects the direction to maximize a certain measure of progress, we improve the convergence rate to a conditionnumber-free superlinear convergence rate. Second, based on the random quasiNewton update that selects the direction randomly from a spherically symmetric distribution, we show the same superlinear convergence rate established as above. Our analysis is closely related to the approximation of a given Hessian matrix, unconstrained quadratic objective, as well as the general strongly convex, smooth and strongly self-concordant functions.