Asia
Maximum entropy based testing in network models: ERGMs and constrained optimization
Ghosh, Subhrosekhar, Karmakar, Rathindra Nath, Lahiry, Samriddha
Stochastic network models play a central role across a wide range of scientific disciplines, and questions of statistical inference arise naturally in this context. In this paper we investigate goodness-of-fit and two-sample testing procedures for statistical networks based on the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Our approach formulates a constrained entropy-maximization problem on the space of networks, subject to prescribed structural constraints. The resulting test statistics are defined through the Lagrange multipliers associated with the constrained optimization problem, which, to our knowledge, is novel in the statistical networks literature. We establish consistency in the classical regime where the number of vertices is fixed. We then consider asymptotic regimes in which the graph size grows with the sample size, developing tests for both dense and sparse settings. In the dense case, we analyze exponential random graph models (ERGM) (including the Erdös-Rènyi models), while in the sparse regime our theory applies to Erd{ö}s-R{è}nyi graphs. Our analysis leverages recent advances in nonlinear large deviation theory for random graphs. We further show that the proposed Lagrange-multiplier framework connects naturally to classical score tests for constrained maximum likelihood estimation. The results provide a unified entropy-based framework for network model assessment across diverse growth regimes.
Stability and Generalization of Push-Sum Based Decentralized Optimization over Directed Graphs
Liang, Yifei, Sun, Yan, Cao, Xiaochun, Shen, Li
Push-Sum-based decentralized learning enables optimization over directed communication networks, where information exchange may be asymmetric. While convergence properties of such methods are well understood, their finite-iteration stability and generalization behavior remain unclear due to structural bias induced by column-stochastic mixing and asymmetric error propagation. In this work, we develop a unified uniform-stability framework for the Stochastic Gradient Push (SGP) algorithm that captures the effect of directed topology. A key technical ingredient is an imbalance-aware consistency bound for Push-Sum, which controls consensus deviation through two quantities: the stationary distribution imbalance parameter $δ$ and the spectral gap $(1-λ)$ governing mixing speed. This decomposition enables us to disentangle statistical effects from topology-induced bias. We establish finite-iteration stability and optimization guarantees for both convex objectives and non-convex objectives satisfying the Polyak--Łojasiewicz condition. For convex problems, SGP attains excess generalization error of order $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\!\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{mn}}+\fracγ{δ(1-λ)}+γ\right)$ under step-size schedules, and we characterize the corresponding optimal early stopping time that minimizes this bound. For PŁ objectives, we obtain convex-like optimization and generalization rates with dominant dependence proportional to $κ\!\left(1+\frac{1}{δ(1-λ)}\right)$, revealing a multiplicative coupling between problem conditioning and directed communication topology. Our analysis clarifies when Push-Sum correction is necessary compared with standard decentralized SGD and quantifies how imbalance and mixing jointly shape the best attainable learning performance.
Amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheet data from mobile devices
Zhou, Daniel, Banerjee, Sudipto
Mobile data technologies use ``actigraphs'' to furnish information on health variables as a function of a subject's movement. The advent of wearable devices and related technologies has propelled the creation of health databases consisting of human movement data to conduct research on mobility patterns and health outcomes. Statistical methods for analyzing high-resolution actigraph data depend on the specific inferential context, but the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks require that the methods be congruent to transfer learning and amortization. This article devises amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheets. We pursue a Bayesian approach to ensure full propagation of uncertainty and its quantification using a hierarchical dynamic linear model. We build our analysis around actigraph data from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches in Los Angeles (PASTA-LA) study conducted by the Fielding School of Public Health in the University of California, Los Angeles. Apart from achieving probabilistic imputation of actigraph time sheets, we are also able to statistically learn about the time-varying impact of explanatory variables on the magnitude of acceleration (MAG) for a cohort of subjects.
Why are animals picking on Punch the monkey? Scientists reveal the tragic truth about the viral macaque who keeps getting rejected
Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL gang rape video: Classmates speak out on sick'taking turns' footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Live Nation executives mocked'stupid' concert-goers in emails where they bragged about how to best rip them off: '$60 for closer grass' NFL superstar Xavier Worthy spills all on Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' struggles... and having Taylor Swift as his No 1 fan Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Nancy Mace throws herself into Iran warzone as she goes rogue on Middle East rescue mission: 'I AM that person' Hidden toxins in kids' treats EXPOSED: Health guru Jillian Michaels' sit-down with Casey DeSantis reveals dangers lurking in popular foods Why are animals picking on Punch the monkey? Scientists have revealed the tragic truth about Punch the monkey - the viral macaque who has stolen the hearts of millions across social media. The seven-month-old Japanese macaque was born at Ichikawa Zoo last year, where he was rejected by his mother. Zookeepers gave him a stuffed orangutan toy, who he quickly formed a bond with - with viral footage showing him clinging to the plushie. Fans were briefly relieved when footage emerged of another macaque grooming and comforting Punch.
How Ukraine became a drone factory and invented the future of war
Ukraine has responded to a war it didn't start by creating an industry it doesn't want, but could the nation's drone expertise help it rebuild? To learn more, gained exclusive access to the research labs, factories and military training schools behind Ukraine's drones Killhouse Academy, run by the 3rd Assault Brigade, is Ukraine's leading drone-pilot school. The grinding, attritional war between Russia and Ukraine is now entirely dominated by drones. Russia pummels Ukraine with long-range kamikaze aircraft and Ukraine knocks them out of the sky with specialised interceptors. The front line has transitioned from an artillery battle to a first-person-view drone fight, while ground-based robots are increasingly used to deliver ammunition and supplies, launch attacks and evacuate the wounded. As a result, in the four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine has created from nothing an entire industry and ecosystem capable of designing, manufacturing and operating a variety of ingenious drones.
Tech's politics push at home and abroad
Tech's politics push at home and abroad We report from California's Silicon Valley, where billionaires pour money into midterms, and the AI Impact summit, where India pushes back on'AI monopoly' held by US and China This week, we're examining the tech industry's push for influence in two places separated by a time difference of 13 hours and 30 minutes. The first is where tech sees its next big market, the second its home turf. My colleague Robert Booth reports from last week's India AI Impact summit, where tech companies pledged to spend tens of billions in the coming year to build customer bases and datacenters in the subcontinent. Dara Kerr and Lauren Gambino reported from Silicon Valley, where billionaires are marshalling their wealth to influence California's politics at greater levels than they ever have before. Visitors explore the Google pavilion during the AI Impact summit at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, India, on 20 February.
Variational Inference for Bayesian MIDAS Regression
We develop a Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm for Bayesian Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression with linear weight parameterizations. The model separates impact coeffcients from weighting function parameters through a normalization constraint, creating a bilinear structure that renders generic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers unreliable while preserving conditional conjugacy exploitable by CAVI. Each variational update admits a closed-form solution: Gaussian for regression coefficients and weight parameters, Inverse-Gamma for the error variance. The algorithm propagates uncertainty across blocks through second moments, distinguishing it from naive plug-in approximations. In a Monte Carlo study spanning 21 data-generating configurations with up to 50 predictors, CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to a block Gibbs sampler benchmark while achieving speedups of 107x to 1,772x (Table 9). Generic automatic differentiation VI (ADVI), by contrast, produces bias 714 times larger while being orders of magnitude slower, confirming the value of model-specific derivations. Weight function parameters maintain excellent calibration (coverage above 92%) across all configurations. Impact coefficient credible intervals exhibit the underdispersion characteristic of mean-field approximations, with coverage declining from 89% to 55% as the number of predictors grows a documented trade-off between speed and interval calibration that structured variational methods can address. An empirical application to realized volatility forecasting on S&P 500 daily returns cofirms that CAVI and Gibbs sampling yield virtually identical point forecasts, with CAVI completing each monthly estimation in under 10 milliseconds.
Declassified CIA files reveal chilling blueprint to manipulate Americans' minds through covert drugging with vaccines
Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL gang rape video: Classmates speak out on sick'taking turns' footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting NFL superstar Xavier Worthy spills all on Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' struggles... and having Taylor Swift as his No 1 fan Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Nancy Mace throws herself into Iran warzone as she goes rogue on Middle East rescue mission: 'I AM that person' Hidden toxins in kids' treats EXPOSED: Health guru Jillian Michaels' sit-down with Casey DeSantis reveals dangers lurking in popular foods Declassified CIA files reveal chilling blueprint to manipulate Americans' minds through covert drugging with vaccines READ MORE: CIA mind-control project'programmed Trump shooter', congressman claims A newly released CIA document reveals a chilling blueprint to manipulate minds through covert drugging experiments . The report, added to the CIA's reading room in 2025, details the government's once top-secret Project Artichoke that ran from 1951 to 1956, focusing on behavior control, interrogation techniques and psychological manipulation. The seven-page document, titled'Special Research for Artichoke,' with an attachment labeled'Suggested Fields for Special Research Relative Artichoke,' outlines proposals to develop chemicals capable of altering human behavior. It discusses drugs designed for both immediate effects, like truth serums and long-term influence, potentially administered through food, water, alcohol or cigarettes. Researchers also suggested that such substances could be disguised in medical treatments such as vaccinations or injections.
You think this is bad? Scientists warn Britain is about to get hit with BLOOD RAIN as a Saharan red dust cloud sweeps from Europe across the UK
ROTC students at Old Dominion subdued and killed ISIS-linked gunman who left one dead, two wounded after shouting'Allahu Akbar' and opened fire Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Hollywood icon who starred in Psycho after Hitchcock dubbed her'my new Grace Kelly' looks incredible at 95 Kylie Jenner's total humiliation in Hollywood: Derogatory rumor leaves her boyfriend's peers'laughing at her' behind her back Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting Ben Affleck'scores $600m deal' with Netflix to sell his AI film start-up Long hair over 45 is ageing and try-hard. I've finally cut mine off. Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL rape video: Classmates speak out on sickening footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' You think this is bad? The rain in the UK seems to have been never-ending - with some regions experiencing showers every single day this year. Now scientists have warned that things are going to get even worse.
The CDC Has a Leadership Crisis
A 2023 law championed by Republicans requires the CDC have a director confirmed by the Senate. For months, though, it's had only acting directors--and the White House won't say when that will change. As the agency rotates through a cast of leaders, it's unclear when--or if--the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will get a permanent director under Donald Trump's second term as president. Following Jim O'Neill's departure as acting CDC director last week, National Institutes of Health director Jay Bhattacharya will now lead both agencies temporarily. It's the latest in a series of shakeups at Trump's CDC, which has lost about a quarter of its staff to mass layoffs carried out by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. last year.