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Amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheet data from mobile devices

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mobile data technologies use ``actigraphs'' to furnish information on health variables as a function of a subject's movement. The advent of wearable devices and related technologies has propelled the creation of health databases consisting of human movement data to conduct research on mobility patterns and health outcomes. Statistical methods for analyzing high-resolution actigraph data depend on the specific inferential context, but the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks require that the methods be congruent to transfer learning and amortization. This article devises amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheets. We pursue a Bayesian approach to ensure full propagation of uncertainty and its quantification using a hierarchical dynamic linear model. We build our analysis around actigraph data from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches in Los Angeles (PASTA-LA) study conducted by the Fielding School of Public Health in the University of California, Los Angeles. Apart from achieving probabilistic imputation of actigraph time sheets, we are also able to statistically learn about the time-varying impact of explanatory variables on the magnitude of acceleration (MAG) for a cohort of subjects.


Why are animals picking on Punch the monkey? Scientists reveal the tragic truth about the viral macaque who keeps getting rejected

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL gang rape video: Classmates speak out on sick'taking turns' footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Live Nation executives mocked'stupid' concert-goers in emails where they bragged about how to best rip them off: '$60 for closer grass' NFL superstar Xavier Worthy spills all on Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' struggles... and having Taylor Swift as his No 1 fan Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Nancy Mace throws herself into Iran warzone as she goes rogue on Middle East rescue mission: 'I AM that person' Hidden toxins in kids' treats EXPOSED: Health guru Jillian Michaels' sit-down with Casey DeSantis reveals dangers lurking in popular foods Why are animals picking on Punch the monkey? Scientists have revealed the tragic truth about Punch the monkey - the viral macaque who has stolen the hearts of millions across social media. The seven-month-old Japanese macaque was born at Ichikawa Zoo last year, where he was rejected by his mother. Zookeepers gave him a stuffed orangutan toy, who he quickly formed a bond with - with viral footage showing him clinging to the plushie. Fans were briefly relieved when footage emerged of another macaque grooming and comforting Punch.


How Ukraine became a drone factory and invented the future of war

New Scientist

Ukraine has responded to a war it didn't start by creating an industry it doesn't want, but could the nation's drone expertise help it rebuild? To learn more, gained exclusive access to the research labs, factories and military training schools behind Ukraine's drones Killhouse Academy, run by the 3rd Assault Brigade, is Ukraine's leading drone-pilot school. The grinding, attritional war between Russia and Ukraine is now entirely dominated by drones. Russia pummels Ukraine with long-range kamikaze aircraft and Ukraine knocks them out of the sky with specialised interceptors. The front line has transitioned from an artillery battle to a first-person-view drone fight, while ground-based robots are increasingly used to deliver ammunition and supplies, launch attacks and evacuate the wounded. As a result, in the four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine has created from nothing an entire industry and ecosystem capable of designing, manufacturing and operating a variety of ingenious drones.


Tech's politics push at home and abroad

The Guardian

Tech's politics push at home and abroad We report from California's Silicon Valley, where billionaires pour money into midterms, and the AI Impact summit, where India pushes back on'AI monopoly' held by US and China This week, we're examining the tech industry's push for influence in two places separated by a time difference of 13 hours and 30 minutes. The first is where tech sees its next big market, the second its home turf. My colleague Robert Booth reports from last week's India AI Impact summit, where tech companies pledged to spend tens of billions in the coming year to build customer bases and datacenters in the subcontinent. Dara Kerr and Lauren Gambino reported from Silicon Valley, where billionaires are marshalling their wealth to influence California's politics at greater levels than they ever have before. Visitors explore the Google pavilion during the AI Impact summit at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, India, on 20 February.


Variational Inference for Bayesian MIDAS Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm for Bayesian Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression with linear weight parameterizations. The model separates impact coeffcients from weighting function parameters through a normalization constraint, creating a bilinear structure that renders generic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers unreliable while preserving conditional conjugacy exploitable by CAVI. Each variational update admits a closed-form solution: Gaussian for regression coefficients and weight parameters, Inverse-Gamma for the error variance. The algorithm propagates uncertainty across blocks through second moments, distinguishing it from naive plug-in approximations. In a Monte Carlo study spanning 21 data-generating configurations with up to 50 predictors, CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to a block Gibbs sampler benchmark while achieving speedups of 107x to 1,772x (Table 9). Generic automatic differentiation VI (ADVI), by contrast, produces bias 714 times larger while being orders of magnitude slower, confirming the value of model-specific derivations. Weight function parameters maintain excellent calibration (coverage above 92%) across all configurations. Impact coefficient credible intervals exhibit the underdispersion characteristic of mean-field approximations, with coverage declining from 89% to 55% as the number of predictors grows a documented trade-off between speed and interval calibration that structured variational methods can address. An empirical application to realized volatility forecasting on S&P 500 daily returns cofirms that CAVI and Gibbs sampling yield virtually identical point forecasts, with CAVI completing each monthly estimation in under 10 milliseconds.


Declassified CIA files reveal chilling blueprint to manipulate Americans' minds through covert drugging with vaccines

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL gang rape video: Classmates speak out on sick'taking turns' footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting NFL superstar Xavier Worthy spills all on Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' struggles... and having Taylor Swift as his No 1 fan Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Nancy Mace throws herself into Iran warzone as she goes rogue on Middle East rescue mission: 'I AM that person' Hidden toxins in kids' treats EXPOSED: Health guru Jillian Michaels' sit-down with Casey DeSantis reveals dangers lurking in popular foods Declassified CIA files reveal chilling blueprint to manipulate Americans' minds through covert drugging with vaccines READ MORE: CIA mind-control project'programmed Trump shooter', congressman claims A newly released CIA document reveals a chilling blueprint to manipulate minds through covert drugging experiments . The report, added to the CIA's reading room in 2025, details the government's once top-secret Project Artichoke that ran from 1951 to 1956, focusing on behavior control, interrogation techniques and psychological manipulation. The seven-page document, titled'Special Research for Artichoke,' with an attachment labeled'Suggested Fields for Special Research Relative Artichoke,' outlines proposals to develop chemicals capable of altering human behavior. It discusses drugs designed for both immediate effects, like truth serums and long-term influence, potentially administered through food, water, alcohol or cigarettes. Researchers also suggested that such substances could be disguised in medical treatments such as vaccinations or injections.


You think this is bad? Scientists warn Britain is about to get hit with BLOOD RAIN as a Saharan red dust cloud sweeps from Europe across the UK

Daily Mail - Science & tech

ROTC students at Old Dominion subdued and killed ISIS-linked gunman who left one dead, two wounded after shouting'Allahu Akbar' and opened fire Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Hollywood icon who starred in Psycho after Hitchcock dubbed her'my new Grace Kelly' looks incredible at 95 Kylie Jenner's total humiliation in Hollywood: Derogatory rumor leaves her boyfriend's peers'laughing at her' behind her back Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting Ben Affleck'scores $600m deal' with Netflix to sell his AI film start-up Long hair over 45 is ageing and try-hard. I've finally cut mine off. Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL rape video: Classmates speak out on sickening footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' You think this is bad? The rain in the UK seems to have been never-ending - with some regions experiencing showers every single day this year. Now scientists have warned that things are going to get even worse.


The CDC Has a Leadership Crisis

WIRED

A 2023 law championed by Republicans requires the CDC have a director confirmed by the Senate. For months, though, it's had only acting directors--and the White House won't say when that will change. As the agency rotates through a cast of leaders, it's unclear when--or if--the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will get a permanent director under Donald Trump's second term as president. Following Jim O'Neill's departure as acting CDC director last week, National Institutes of Health director Jay Bhattacharya will now lead both agencies temporarily. It's the latest in a series of shakeups at Trump's CDC, which has lost about a quarter of its staff to mass layoffs carried out by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. last year.


Metadata Exposes Authors of ICE's 'Mega' Detention Center Plans

WIRED

Comments and other data left on a PDF detailing Homeland Security's proposal to build "mega" detention and processing centers reveal the personnel involved in its creation. A PDF that Department of Homeland Security officials provided to New Hampshire governor Kelly Ayotte's office about a new effort to build "mega" detention and processing centers across the United States contains embedded comments and metadata identifying the people who worked on it. The seemingly accidental exposure of the identities of DHS personnel who crafted Immigration and Customs Enforcement's mega detention center plan lands amid widespread public pushback against the expansion of ICE detention centers and the department's brutal immigration enforcement tactics. Metadata in the document, which concerns ICE's "Detention Reengineering Initiative" (DRI), lists as its author Jonathan Florentino, the director of ICE's Newark, New Jersey, Field Office of Enforcement and Removal Operations. In a note embedded on top of an FAQ question, "What is the average length of stay for the aliens?"


UK agrees drone defence plan with four EU allies

BBC News

Britain is to develop new air defence weapons alongside the EU's four biggest military powers, deepening ties with the European defence sector. The project will invite manufacturers in the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Poland to submit plans to build low-cost missiles and autonomous drones. The allies are pledging a speedy process to build the weapons together, inspired by Ukraine's development of cheap drones to counter attacks from Russia. The UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) says the programme will prioritise a lightweight, affordable surface-to-air weapon, with the first project to be delivered by next year. The plan, announced at a meeting of the five countries' defence ministers in the Polish city of Krakow, marks a boost to UK-Europe ties after the failure of talks last year over UK participation in the EU's new €150bn (£130bn) defence fund.