We present a new method for obtaining local error bars for nonlinear regression, i.e., estimates of the confidence in predicted values that depend on the input. We approach this problem by applying a maximumlikelihood framework to an assumed distribution of errors. We demonstrate our method first on computer-generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition where the underlying system noise is known quantization error and the error bars give local estimates of model misspecification. In both cases, the method also provides a weightedregression effect that improves generalization performance.

Existing recurrent net learning algorithms are inadequate. We introduce the conceptual framework of viewing recurrent training as matching vector fields of dynamical systems in phase space. Phasespace reconstruction techniques make the hidden states explicit, reducing temporal learning to a feed-forward problem. In short, we propose viewing iterated prediction [LF88] as the best way of training recurrent networks on deterministic signals. Using this framework, we can train multiple trajectories, insure their stability, and design arbitrary dynamical systems. 1 INTRODUCTION Existing general-purpose recurrent algorithms are capable of rich dynamical behavior. Unfortunately, straightforward applications of these algorithms to training fully-recurrent networks on complex temporal tasks have had much less success than their feedforward counterparts. For example, to train a recurrent network to oscillate like a sine wave (the "hydrogen atom" of recurrent learning), existing techniques such as Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) [WZ89] perform suboptimally. Williams & Zipser trained a two-unit network with RTRL, with one teacher signal. One unit of the resulting network showed a distorted waveform, the other only half the desired amplitude.

Visualizing and structuring pairwise dissimilarity data are difficult combinatorial optimization problems known as multidimensional scaling or pairwise data clustering. Algorithms for embedding dissimilarity data set in a Euclidian space, for clustering these data and for actively selecting data to support the clustering process are discussed in the maximum entropy framework. Active data selection provides a strategy to discover structure in a data set efficiently with partially unknown data. 1 Introduction Grouping experimental data into compact clusters arises as a data analysis problem in psychology, linguistics, genetics and other experimental sciences. The data which are supposed to be clustered are either given by an explicit coordinate representation (central clustering) or, in the non-metric case, they are characterized by dissimilarity values for pairs of data points (pairwise clustering). In this paper we study algorithms (i) for embedding non-metric data in a D-dimensional Euclidian space, (ii) for simultaneous clustering and embedding of non-metric data, and (iii) for active data selection to determine a particular cluster structure with minimal number of data queries. All algorithms are derived from the maximum entropy principle (Hertz et al., 1991) which guarantees robust statistics (Tikochinsky et al., 1984).

School of Computer Science School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract In many vision based tasks, the ability to focus attention on the important portions of a scene is crucial for good performance on the tasks. In this paper we present a simple method of achieving spatial selective attention through the use of a saliency map. The saliency map indicates which regions of the input retina are important for performing the task. The saliency map is created through predictive auto-encoding. The performance of this method is demonstrated on two simple tasks which have multiple very strong distracting features in the input retina. Architectural extensions and application directions for this model are presented. On some tasks this extra input can easily be ignored. Nonetheless, often the similarity between the important input features and the irrelevant features is great enough to interfere with task performance.

This paper discusses the linearly weighted combination of estimators in which the weighting functions are dependent on the input. We show that the weighting functions can be derived either by evaluating the input dependent variance of each estimator or by estimating how likely it is that a given estimator has seen data in the region of the input space close to the input pattern. The latter solution is closely related to the mixture of experts approach and we show how learning rules for the mixture of experts can be derived from the theory about learning with missing features. The presented approaches are modular since the weighting functions can easily be modified (no retraining) if more estimators are added. Furthermore, it is easy to incorporate estimators which were not derived from data such as expert systems or algorithms.

We prove the convergence of an actor/critic algorithm that is equivalent to Q-Iearning by construction. Its equivalence is achieved by encoding Q-values within the policy and value function of the actor and critic. The resultant actor/critic algorithm is novel in two ways: it updates the critic only when the most probable action is executed from any given state, and it rewards the actor using criteria that depend on the relative probability of the action that was executed.

Semi-Markov Decision Problems are continuous time generalizations of discrete time Markov Decision Problems. A number of reinforcement learning algorithms have been developed recently for the solution of Markov Decision Problems, based on the ideas of asynchronous dynamic programming and stochastic approximation. Among these are TD(,x), Q-Iearning, and Real-time Dynamic Programming. After reviewing semi-Markov Decision Problems and Bellman's optimality equation in that context, we propose algorithms similar to those named above, adapted to the solution of semi-Markov Decision Problems. We demonstrate these algorithms by applying them to the problem of determining the optimal control for a simple queueing system. We conclude with a discussion of circumstances under which these algorithms may be usefully applied.

Reinforcement learning addresses the problem of learning to select actions in order to maximize one's performance in unknown environments. To scale reinforcement learning to complex real-world tasks, such as typically studied in AI, one must ultimately be able to discover the structure in the world, in order to abstract away the myriad of details and to operate in more tractable problem spaces. This paper presents the SKILLS algorithm. SKILLS discovers skills, which are partially defined action policies that arise in the context of multiple, related tasks.

This paper presents instance-based state identification, an approach to reinforcement learning and hidden state that builds disambiguating amounts of short-term memory online, and also learns with an order of magnitude fewer training steps than several previous approaches. Inspired by a key similarity between learning with hidden state and learning in continuous geometrical spaces, this approach uses instance-based (or "memory-based") learning, a method that has worked well in continuous spaces. 1 BACKGROUND AND RELATED WORK When a robot's next course of action depends on information that is hidden from the sensors because of problems such as occlusion, restricted range, bounded field of view and limited attention, the robot suffers from hidden state. More formally, we say a reinforcement learning agent suffers from the hidden state problem if the agent's state representation is non-Markovian with respect to actions and utility. The hidden state problem arises as a case of perceptual aliasing: the mapping between states of the world and sensations of the agent is not one-to-one [Whitehead, 1992]. If the agent's perceptual system produces the same outputs for two world states in which different actions are required, and if the agent's state representation consists only of its percepts, then the agent will fail to choose correct actions.

It is widely accepted that the use of more compact representations than lookup tables is crucial to scaling reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to real-world problems. Unfortunately almost all of the theory of reinforcement learning assumes lookup table representations. In this paper we address the pressing issue of combining function approximation and RL, and present 1) a function approximator based on a simple extension to state aggregation (a commonly used form of compact representation), namely soft state aggregation, 2) a theory of convergence for RL with arbitrary, but fixed, soft state aggregation, 3) a novel intuitive understanding of the effect of state aggregation on online RL, and 4) a new heuristic adaptive state aggregation algorithm that finds improved compact representations by exploiting the non-discrete nature of soft state aggregation. Preliminary empirical results are also presented.