The mixture of experts [1, 2] is a well known example which implements the philosophy of divide-and-conquer elegantly. Whereas this model are gaining more popularity in various applications, there have been little efforts to evaluate generalization capability of these modular approaches theoretically. Here we present the first analytic study of generalization in the mixture of experts from the statistical 184 K. Kang and 1. Oh physics perspective. Use of statistical mechanics formulation have been focused on the study of feedforward neural network architectures close to the multilayer perceptron[5, 6], together with the VC theory[8]. We expect that the statistical mechanics approach can also be effectively used to evaluate more advanced architectures including mixture models.

A new method to calculate the full training process of a neural network is introduced. No sophisticated methods like the replica trick are used. The results are directly related to the actual number of training steps. Some results are presented here, like the maximal learning rate, an exact description of early stopping, and the necessary number of training steps. Further problems can be addressed with this approach.

The parameter space of neural networks has a Riemannian metric structure. The natural Riemannian gradient should be used instead of the conventional gradient, since the former denotes the true steepest descent direction of a loss function in the Riemannian space. The behavior of the stochastic gradient learning algorithm is much more effective if the natural gradient is used. The present paper studies the information-geometrical structure of perceptrons and other networks, and prove that the online learning method based on the natural gradient is asymptotically as efficient as the optimal batch algorithm. Adaptive modification of the learning constant is proposed and analyzed in terms of the Riemannian measure and is shown to be efficient.

This paper develops arguments for a family of temporal log-linear models to represent spatiotemporal correlations among the spiking events in a group of neurons. The models can represent not just pairwise correlations but also correlations of higher order. Methods are discussed for inferring the existence or absence of correlations and estimating their strength. A frequentist and a Bayesian approach to correlation detection are compared.

Sometimes local features group into regions, as in texture segmentation; at other times they group into contours which may represent object boundaries. Although much is known about the processing steps that extract local features such as oriented input edges, it is still unclear how local features are grouped into global ones more meaningful for objects.

Various experiments have suggested that simple input competition cannot be the whole story.

Although TD-Gammon is one of the major successes in machine learning, it has not led to similar impressive breakthroughs in temporal difference learning for other applications or even other games. We were able to replicate some of the success of TD-Gammon, developing a competitive evaluation function on a 4000 parameter feed-forward neural network, without using back-propagation, reinforcement or temporal difference learning methods. Instead we apply simple hill-climbing in a relative fitness environment. These results and further analysis suggest that the surprising success of Tesauro's program had more to do with the co-evolutionary structure of the learning task and the dynamics of the backgammon game itself. 1 INTRODUCTION It took great chutzpah for Gerald Tesauro to start wasting computer cycles on temporal difference learning in the game of Backgammon (Tesauro, 1992). After all, the dream of computers mastering a domain by self-play or "introspection" had been around since the early days of AI, forming part of Samuel's checker player (Samuel, 1959) and used in Donald Michie's MENACE tictac-toe learner (Michie, 1961).

We propose and analyze an algorithm that approximates solutions to the problem of optimal stopping in a discounted irreducible aperiodic Markov chain. The scheme involves the use of linear combinations of fixed basis functions to approximate a Q-function. The weights of the linear combination are incrementally updated through an iterative process similar to Q-Iearning, involving simulation of the underlying Markov chain. Due to space limitations, we only provide an overview of a proof of convergence (with probability 1) and bounds on the approximation error. This is the first theoretical result that establishes the soundness of a Q-Iearninglike algorithm when combined with arbitrary linear function approximators to solve a sequential decision problem.

A new reinforcement learning architecture for nonlinear control is proposed. A direct feedback controller, or the actor, is trained by a value-gradient based controller, or the tutor. This architecture enables both efficient use of the value function and simple computation for real-time implementation. Good performance was verified in multidimensional nonlinear control tasks using Gaussian softmax networks.

High frequency foreign exchange data can be decomposed into three components: the inventory effect component, the surprise infonnation (news) component and the regular infonnation component. The presence of the inventory effect and news can make analysis of trends due to the diffusion of infonnation (regular information component) difficult. We propose a neural-net-based, independent component analysis to separate high frequency foreign exchange data into these three components. Our empirical results show that our proposed multi-effect decomposition can reveal the intrinsic price behavior.