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Laplace Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian models andregularized risk functionals. It is based on the propagation of mean and variance derived from the Laplace approximation of conditional probabilitiesin factorizing distributions, much akin to Minka's Expectation Propagation. In the jointly normal case, it coincides with the latter and belief propagation, whereas in the general case, it provides an optimization strategy containing Support Vector chunking, the Bayes Committee Machine, and Gaussian Process chunking as special cases.



An AI Planning-based Tool for Scheduling Satellite Nominal Operations

AI Magazine

Satellite domains are becoming a fashionable area of research within the AI community due to the complexity of the problems that satellite domains need to solve. With the current U.S. and European focus on launching satellites for communication, broadcasting, or localization tasks, among others, the automatic control of these machines becomes an important problem. Many new techniques in both the planning and scheduling fields have been applied successfully, but still much work is left to be done for reliable autonomous architectures. The purpose of this article is to present CONSAT, a real application that plans and schedules the performance of nominal operations in four satellites during the course of a year for a commercial Spanish satellite company, HISPASAT. For this task, we have used an AI domain-independent planner that solves the planning and scheduling problems in the HISPASAT domain thanks to its capability of representing and handling continuous variables, coding functions to obtain the operators' variable values, and the use of control rules to prune the search. We also abstract the approach in order to generalize it to other domains that need an integrated approach to planning and scheduling.


Calendar of Events

AI Magazine

Cognition: The Mathematics of Mind. (CORES 2005). Stefanie Bruninghaus, University of Pittsburgh The ICCBR'05 Program Committee invites submissions of original theoretical research, Industry Day Chair: applied research and deployed application (MDAI 2005). Must have a Masters Degree in Data Mining.


Project Halo: Towards a Digital Aristotle

AI Magazine

Project Halo is a multistaged effort, sponsored by Vulcan Inc, aimed at creating Digital Aristotle, an application that will encompass much of the world's scientific knowledge and be capable of applying sophisticated problem solving to answer novel questions. Vulcan envisions two primary roles for Digital Aristotle: as a tutor to instruct students in the sciences and as an interdisciplinary research assistant to help scientists in their work. As a first step towards this goal, we have just completed a six-month pilot phase designed to assess the state of the art in applied knowledge representation and reasoning (KR&/R). Vulcan selected three teams, each of which was to formally represent 70 pages from the advanced placement (AP) chemistry syllabus and deliver knowledge-based systems capable of answering questions on that syllabus. The evaluation quantified each system's coverage of the syllabus in terms of its ability to answer novel, previously unseen questions and to provide human- readable answer justifications. These justifications will play a critical role in building user trust in the question-answering capabilities of Digital Aristotle. Prior to the final evaluation, a "failure taxonomy' was collaboratively developed in an attempt to standardize failure analysis and to facilitate cross-platform comparisons. Despite differences in approach, all three systems did very well on the challenge, achieving performance comparable to the human median. The analysis also provided key insights into how the approaches might be scaled, while at the same time suggesting how the cost of producing such systems might be reduced. This outcome leaves us highly optimistic that the technical challenges facing this effort in the years to come can be identified and overcome. This article presents the motivation and longterm goals of Project Halo, describes in detail the six-month first phase of the project -- the Halo Pilot -- its KR&R challenge, empirical evaluation, results, and failure analysis. The pilot's outcome is used to define challenges for the next phase of the project and beyond.


LexRank: Graph-based Lexical Centrality as Salience in Text Summarization

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We introduce a stochastic graph-based method for computing relative importance of textual units for Natural Language Processing. We test the technique on the problem of Text Summarization (TS). Extractive TS relies on the concept of sentence salience to identify the most important sentences in a document or set of documents. Salience is typically defined in terms of the presence of particular important words or in terms of similarity to a centroid pseudo-sentence. We consider a new approach, LexRank, for computing sentence importance based on the concept of eigenvector centrality in a graph representation of sentences. In this model, a connectivity matrix based on intra-sentence cosine similarity is used as the adjacency matrix of the graph representation of sentences. Our system, based on LexRank ranked in first place in more than one task in the recent DUC 2004 evaluation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of our approach and apply it to a larger data set including data from earlier DUC evaluations. We discuss several methods to compute centrality using the similarity graph. The results show that degree-based methods (including LexRank) outperform both centroid-based methods and other systems participating in DUC in most of the cases. Furthermore, the LexRank with threshold method outperforms the other degree-based techniques including continuous LexRank. We also show that our approach is quite insensitive to the noise in the data that may result from an imperfect topical clustering of documents.


On Prediction Using Variable Order Markov Models

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

This paper is concerned with algorithms for prediction of discrete sequences over a finite alphabet, using variable order Markov models. The class of such algorithms is large and in principle includes any lossless compression algorithm. We focus on six prominent prediction algorithms, including Context Tree Weighting (CTW), Prediction by Partial Match (PPM) and Probabilistic Suffix Trees (PSTs). We discuss the properties of these algorithms and compare their performance using real life sequences from three domains: proteins, English text and music pieces. The comparison is made with respect to prediction quality as measured by the average log-loss. We also compare classification algorithms based on these predictors with respect to a number of large protein classification tasks. Our results indicate that a ``decomposed'' CTW (a variant of the CTW algorithm) and PPM outperform all other algorithms in sequence prediction tasks. Somewhat surprisingly, a different algorithm, which is a modification of the Lempel-Ziv compression algorithm, significantly outperforms all algorithms on the protein classification problems.


Existence of Multiagent Equilibria with Limited Agents

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Multiagent learning is a necessary yet challenging problem as multiagent systems become more prevalent and environments become more dynamic. Much of the groundbreaking work in this area draws on notable results from game theory, in particular, the concept of Nash equilibria. Learners that directly learn an equilibrium obviously rely on their existence. Learners that instead seek to play optimally with respect to the other players also depend upon equilibria since equilibria are fixed points for learning. From another perspective, agents with limitations are real and common. These may be undesired physical limitations as well as self-imposed rational limitations, such as abstraction and approximation techniques, used to make learning tractable. This article explores the interactions of these two important concepts: equilibria and limitations in learning. We introduce the question of whether equilibria continue to exist when agents have limitations. We look at the general effects limitations can have on agent behavior, and define a natural extension of equilibria that accounts for these limitations. Using this formalization, we make three major contributions: (i) a counterexample for the general existence of equilibria with limitations, (ii) sufficient conditions on limitations that preserve their existence, (iii) three general classes of games and limitations that satisfy these conditions. We then present empirical results from a specific multiagent learning algorithm applied to a specific instance of limited agents. These results demonstrate that learning with limitations is feasible, when the conditions outlined by our theoretical analysis hold.


Towards Understanding and Harnessing the Potential of Clause Learning

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Efficient implementations of DPLL with the addition of clause learning are the fastest complete Boolean satisfiability solvers and can handle many significant real-world problems, such as verification, planning and design. Despite its importance, little is known of the ultimate strengths and limitations of the technique. This paper presents the first precise characterization of clause learning as a proof system (CL), and begins the task of understanding its power by relating it to the well-studied resolution proof system. In particular, we show that with a new learning scheme, CL can provide exponentially shorter proofs than many proper refinements of general resolution (RES) satisfying a natural property. These include regular and Davis-Putnam resolution, which are already known to be much stronger than ordinary DPLL. We also show that a slight variant of CL with unlimited restarts is as powerful as RES itself. Translating these analytical results to practice, however, presents a challenge because of the nondeterministic nature of clause learning algorithms. We propose a novel way of exploiting the underlying problem structure, in the form of a high level problem description such as a graph or PDDL specification, to guide clause learning algorithms toward faster solutions. We show that this leads to exponential speed-ups on grid and randomized pebbling problems, as well as substantial improvements on certain ordering formulas.


Stability and Diversity in Collective Adaptation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We derive a class of macroscopic differential equations that describe collective adaptation, starting from a discrete-time stochastic microscopic model. The behavior of each agent is a dynamic balance between adaptation that locally achieves the best action and memory loss that leads to randomized behavior. We show that, although individual agents interact with their environment and other agents in a purely self-interested way, macroscopic behavior can be interpreted as game dynamics. Application to several familiar, explicit game interactions shows that the adaptation dynamics exhibits a diversity of collective behaviors. The simplicity of the assumptions underlying the macroscopic equations suggests that these behaviors should be expected broadly in collective adaptation. We also analyze the adaptation dynamics from an information-theoretic viewpoint and discuss self-organization induced by information flux between agents, giving a novel view of collective adaptation.