We present an approach to identifying concurrent patterns of behavior in in-sample temporal factor training data that precede Events of Interest (EoIs). We also present how to use discovered patterns to forecast EoIs in out-of-sample test data. The forecasting methodology is based on matching entities' observed behaviors to patterns discovered in retrospective data. This pattern concept is a generalization of previous pattern definitions. The new pattern concept, based around patterns observed in trends of factor data is based on a finite-state model where observed, sustained trends in a factor map to pattern states. Discovered patterns can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the dynamic conditions leading up to specific Event of Interest occurrences and hint at underlying causal structures leading to onsets and terminations of socio-political violence. We present a computationally efficient data-mining method to discover trend patterns. We give an example of using our pattern forecasting methodology to correctly forecast the advent and cessation of ethnic-religious violence in nation states with a low false-alarm rate.

We construct a computer model that allows us to simulate the effect of counterinsurgency operations on a population of agents. We build a society of agents who are interconnected in an established social network. Each agent in this network engages in political discourse with other agents over the legitimacy of the existing government. Agents may decide to support an insurgency, join an insurgency, side with the existing government, or remain neutral over which group to support. Using this model we explore the relative importance of social network structure, influence effectiveness, and combat operation effectiveness in minimizing insurgent strength.

In this paper, we present AutoMed, an automated mediator for multi-issue bilateral negotiation under time constraints. AutoMed uses a qualitative model to represent the negotiators' preferences. It analyzes the negotiators' preferences, monitors the negotiations and proposes possible solutions for resolving the conflict. We conducted experiments in a simulated environment. The results show that negotiations mediated by AutoMed are concluded significantly faster than non-mediated ones and without any of the negotiators opting out. Furthermore, the subjects in the mediated negotiations are more satisfied from the resolutions than the subjects in the non-mediated negotiations.

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.

This paper presents an agent based framework for modeling of the formation and dynamics of pirate networks. The framework consists of (1) development of network formation mechanism and (2) formulation of pirate attack dynamics. Accordingly, the paper attempts to define the characteristics of Pirate Networks and to formulate the rules that govern the operation and evolution of Pirate Networks. We discuss the clan based social system that facilitate pirate formation as well as the pirate network inter-action with the hosting clan system. Using published material, empirical data and surveys the paper attempts to establish credible formation mechanism and operational characterization of pirate attacks. The proposed framework accounts for clan dynamics and the interplay of social, ecological and physical spaces. Finally we conclude with a discussion on exploratory modeling for the refinement of the proposed framework and for empirically grounding proposed simulations.

This survey is an introduction to positive definite kernels and the set of methods they have inspired in the machine learning literature, namely kernel methods. We first discuss some properties of positive definite kernels as well as reproducing kernel Hibert spaces, the natural extension of the set of functions $\{k(x,\cdot),x\in\mathcal{X}\}$ associated with a kernel $k$ defined on a space $\mathcal{X}$. We discuss at length the construction of kernel functions that take advantage of well-known statistical models. We provide an overview of numerous data-analysis methods which take advantage of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and discuss the idea of combining several kernels to improve the performance on certain tasks. We also provide a short cookbook of different kernels which are particularly useful for certain data-types such as images, graphs or speech segments.

Logics of knowledge based on possible-world semantics are u seful in many areas of knowledge representation and reasoning, ranging from security t o distributed computing to game theory. In these models, an agent is said to know a fact ϕ if ϕ is true in all the worlds she considers possible. While reasoning about knowledge with t his semantics has proved useful, as is well known, it suffers from what is known in the literature as the logical omniscience problem: under possible-world semantics, agents know all t autologies and know the logical consequences of their knowledge. While logical omniscience is certainly not always an issue, in many applications it is. For example, in the context of distributed computing, we are interested in polynomial-time algorithms, although in some cases the knowledge needed to p erform optimally may require calculations that cannot be performed in polynomial time (u nless P=NP) [Moses and Tuttle 1988]; in the context of security, we may want to reason about computationally bounded adversaries who cannot factor a large composite number, and thus cannot be logically omniscient; in game theory, we may be interested in the impac t of computational resources on solution concepts (for example, what will agents do if com puting a Nash equilibrium is difficult). Not surprisingly, many approaches for dealing with the logi cal omniscience problem have been suggested (see [Fagin, Halpern, Moses, and Vardi 1 995, Chapter 9] and [Moreno 1998]).

Intelligent Input Methods (IM) are essential for making text entries in many East Asian scripts, but their application to other languages has not been fully explored. This paper discusses how such tools can contribute to the deve lopment of computer processing of other oriental languages. We propose a design philosophy that regards IM as a text service platform, and treats the study of IM as a cross disciplinary subject from the perspectives of software engineering, human - computer interaction (HCI), and natural language processing (NLP). We discuss these three perspectives and indicate a number of possible future research directions.

Community structure identification has been one of the most popular research areas in recent years due to its applicability to the wide scale of disciplines. To detect communities in varied topics, there have been many algorithms proposed so far. However, most of them still have some drawbacks to be addressed. In this paper, we present an agent-based based community detection algorithm. The algorithm that is a stochastic one makes use of agents by forcing them to perform biased moves in a smart way. Using the information collected by the traverses of these agents in the network, the network structure is revealed. Also, the network modularity is used for determining the number of communities. Our algorithm removes the need for prior knowledge about the network such as number of the communities or any threshold values. Furthermore, the definite community structure is provided as a result instead of giving some structures requiring further processes. Besides, the computational and time costs are optimized because of using thread like working agents. The algorithm is tested on three network data of different types and sizes named Zachary karate club, college football and political books. For all three networks, the real network structures are identified in almost every run.

Distributed representation is a way of representing information in a pattern of activation over a set of neurons, in which each concept is represented by activation over multiple neuro ns, and each neuron participates in the representation of multiple concepts [1]. Examples of distributed representat ions include Recursive Auto-Associative Memory (RAAM) [2], Tensor Product Representations [3], Holographic Reduc ed Representations (HRRs) [4, 5], and Binary Spatter Codes (BSC) [6, 7, 8]. BSC is a powerful and simple method of representing hierarchical st ructures in connectionist systems and may be regarded as a binary version of HRRs. Yet, BSC has some drawback s associated with the representation of chunking. This is why different versions of BSC can be found in the literature.