Hierarchical latent class (HLC) models are tree-structured Bayesian networks where leaf nodes are observed while internal nodes are latent. There are no theoretically well justified model selection criteria for HLC models in particular and Bayesian networks with latent nodes in general. Nonetheless, empirical studies suggest that the BIC score is a reasonable criterion to use in practice for learning HLC models. Empirical studies also suggest that sometimes model selection can be improved if standard model dimension is replaced with effective model dimension in the penalty term of the BIC score. Effective dimensions are difficult to compute. In this paper, we prove a theorem that relates the effective dimension of an HLC model to the effective dimensions of a number of latent class models. The theorem makes it computationally feasible to compute the effective dimensions of large HLC models. The theorem can also be used to compute the effective dimensions of general tree models.

The 2002 Trading Agent Competition (TAC) presented a challenging market game in the domain of travel shopping. One of the pivotal issues in this domain is uncertainty about hotel prices, which have a significant influence on the relative cost of alternative trip schedules. Thus, virtually all participants employ some method for predicting hotel prices. We survey approaches employed in the tournament, finding that agents apply an interesting diversity of techniques, taking into account differing sources of evidence bearing on prices. Based on data provided by entrants on their agents' actual predictions in the TAC-02 finals and semifinals, we analyze the relative efficacy of these approaches. The results show that taking into account game-specific information about flight prices is a major distinguishing factor. Machine learning methods effectively induce the relationship between flight and hotel prices from game data, and a purely analytical approach based on competitive equilibrium analysis achieves equal accuracy with no historical data. Employing a new measure of prediction quality, we relate absolute accuracy to bottom-line performance in the game.

In this paper we present a new algorithm suitable for matching discrete objects such as strings and trees in linear time, thus obviating dynarrtic programming with quadratic time complexity. Furthermore, prediction cost in many cases can be reduced to linear cost in the length of the sequence to be classified, regardless of the number of support vectors. This improvement on the currently available algorithms makes string kernels a viable alternative for the practitioner.

Side-chain prediction is an important subtask in the protein-folding problem. We show that finding a minimal energy side-chain configuration is equivalent to performing inference in an undirected graphical model. The graphical model is relatively sparse yet has many cycles. We used this equivalence to assess the performance of approximate inference algorithms in a real-world setting. Specifically we compared belief propagation (BP), generalized BP (GBP) and naive mean field (MF).

Recently the Fisher score (or the Fisher kernel) is increasingly used as a feature extractor for classification problems. The Fisher score is a vector of parameter derivatives of loglikelihood of a probabilistic model. This paper gives a theoretical analysis about how class information is preserved in the space of the Fisher score, which turns out that the Fisher score consists of a few important dimensions with class information and many nuisance dimensions. When we perform clustering with the Fisher score, K-Means type methods are obviously inappropriate because they make use of all dimensions. So we will develop a novel but simple clustering algorithm specialized for the Fisher score, which can exploit important dimensions. This algorithm is successfully tested in experiments with artificial data and real data (amino acid sequences).

The distributional principle according to which morphemes that occur in identical contexts belong, in some sense, to the same category [1] has been advanced as a means for extracting syntactic structures from corpus data. We extend this principle by applying it recursively, and by using mutual information for estimating category coherence. The resulting model learns, in an unsupervised fashion, highly structured, distributed representations of syntactic knowledge from corpora. It also exhibits promising behavior in tasks usually thought to require representations anchored in a grammar, such as systematicity.

A lot of learning machines with hidden variables used in information science have singularities in their parameter spaces. At singularities, the Fisher information matrix becomes degenerate, resulting that the learning theory of regular statistical models does not hold. Recently, it was proven that, if the true parameter is contained in singularities, then the coefficient of the Bayes generalization error is equal to the pole of the zeta function of the Kullback information.

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework, which constructs shared-state triphone HMMs based on a variational Bayesian approach, and recognizes speech based on the Bayesian prediction classification; variational Bayesian estimation and clustering for speech recognition (VBEC). An appropriate model structure with high recognition performance can be found within a VBEC framework. Unlike conventional methods, including BIC or MDL criterion based on the maximum likelihood approach, the proposed model selection is valid in principle, even when there are insufficient amounts of data, because it does not use an asymptotic assumption. In isolated word recognition experiments, we show the advantage of VBEC over conventional methods, especially when dealing with small amounts of data.

We introduce efficient learning equilibrium (ELE), a normative approach to learning in non cooperative settings. In ELE, the learning algorithms themselves are required to be in equilibrium. In addition, the learning algorithms arrive at a desired value after polynomial time, and deviations from a prescribed ELE become irrational after polynomial time. We prove the existence of an ELE in the perfect monitoring setting, where the desired value is the expected payoff in a Nash equilibrium. We also show that an ELE does not always exist in the imperfect monitoring case. Yet, it exists in the special case of common-interest games. Finally, we extend our results to general stochastic games.

Inner-product operators, often referred to as kernels in statistical learning, define a mapping from some input space into a feature space. The focus of this paper is the construction of biologically-motivated kernels for cortical activities. The kernels we derive, termed Spikernels, map spike count sequences into an abstract vector space in which we can perform various prediction tasks. We discuss in detail the derivation of Spikernels and describe an efficient algorithm for computing their value on any two sequences of neural population spike counts. We demonstrate the merits of our modeling approach using the Spikernel and various standard kernels for the task of predicting hand movement velocities from cortical recordings. In all of our experiments all the kernels we tested outperform the standard scalar product used in regression with the Spikernel consistently achieving the best performance.