Asia
High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility
Hisano, Ryohei, Sornette, Didier, Mizuno, Takayuki, Ohnishi, Takaaki, Watanabe, Tsutomu
Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.
Dialectics of Knowledge Representation in a Granular Rough Set Theory
The concepts of rough and definite objects are relatively more determinate than those of granules and granulation in general rough set theory (RST) [1]. Representation of rough objects can however depend on the dialectical relation between granulation and definiteness. In this research, we make this exact in the context of RST over proto-transitive approximation spaces. This approach can be directly extended to many other types of RST. These are used for formulating an extended concept of knowledge interpretation (KI)(relative the situation for classical RST) and the problem of knowledge representation (KR) is solved. These will be of direct interest in granular KR in RST as developed by the present author [2] and of rough objects in general. In [3], these have already been used for five different semantics by the present author. This is an extended version of [4] with key examples and more results.
Game-Initiated Learning: A Case Study For Disaster Education Research In Taiwan
Lin, Sarah Chen (National Taiwan University) | Tsai, Meng-Han (National Taiwan University ) | Chang, Yu-Lien (National Taiwan University) | Kang, Shih-Chung (National Taiwan University)
Game-based learning has been proven an effective method to engage students in the class. However, it is very challenging to balance playability and learnability when only developing digital games. Some "playable" games may not carry sufficient knowledge; some "learnable" games may reduce the students' interest and curiosity. In this ongoing research, we proposed an innovative learning method, "game-initiated learning." This method consists of three main steps: game, discussion and self-directedlearning. In this model, students can experience real-world problems from the game, discuss problems they found in the game, and finally, the instructors can deliver related knowledge that is useful to solving the problems previously discussed. To validate the proposed method, we selected a topic of disaster education in Taiwan and experimentally developed a set of course materials including a digital game, animation videos and an e-book. We conducted a review meeting, inviting experts from hydraulic engineering, game development, and disaster mediation as well as schoolteachers and students. The reviewers were asked to play the games and review all course materials. From the feedbacks of the reviewers, we found game-initiated learning an educational method with great potential in providing tacit and explicit knowledge about disaster management.
ARCO1: An Application of Belief Networks to the Oil Market
Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an impact on the crude oil market. A pictorial market model-developed on a MAC II- facilitates consensus among the members of the forecasting team. The system forecasts crude oil prices via Monte Carlo analyses of the network. Several different models of the oil market have been developed; the system's ability to be updated quickly highlights its flexibility.
Inverse Signal Classification for Financial Instruments
The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system using a collection of 7,881 financial instruments traded during 2011 to identify inverse behavior among the time-series.
Bio-Signals-based Situation Comparison Approach to Predict Pain
This paper describes a time-series-based classification approach to identify similarities between bio-medical-based situations. The proposed approach allows classifying collections of time-series representing bio-medical measurements, i.e., situations, regardless of the type, the length and the quantity of the time-series a situation comprised of.
Topic Discovery through Data Dependent and Random Projections
Ding, Weicong, Rohban, Mohammad H., Ishwar, Prakash, Saligrama, Venkatesh
We present algorithms for topic modeling based on the geometry of cross-document word-frequency patterns. This perspective gains significance under the so called separability condition. This is a condition on existence of novel-words that are unique to each topic. We present a suite of highly efficient algorithms based on data-dependent and random projections of word-frequency patterns to identify novel words and associated topics. We will also discuss the statistical guarantees of the data-dependent projections method based on two mild assumptions on the prior density of topic document matrix. Our key insight here is that the maximum and minimum values of cross-document frequency patterns projected along any direction are associated with novel words. While our sample complexity bounds for topic recovery are similar to the state-of-art, the computational complexity of our random projection scheme scales linearly with the number of documents and the number of words per document. We present several experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate qualitative and quantitative merits of our scheme.
$l_{2,p}$ Matrix Norm and Its Application in Feature Selection
Recently, $l_{2,1}$ matrix norm has been widely applied to many areas such as computer vision, pattern recognition, biological study and etc. As an extension of $l_1$ vector norm, the mixed $l_{2,1}$ matrix norm is often used to find jointly sparse solutions. Moreover, an efficient iterative algorithm has been designed to solve $l_{2,1}$-norm involved minimizations. Actually, computational studies have showed that $l_p$-regularization ($0
An Entropy-based Learning Algorithm of Bayesian Conditional Trees
This article offers a modification of Chow and Liu's learning algorithm in the context of handwritten digit recognition. The modified algorithm directs the user to group digits into several classes consisting of digits that are hard to distinguish and then constructing an optimal conditional tree representation for each class of digits instead of for each single digit as done by Chow and Liu (1968). Advantages and extensions of the new method are discussed. Related works of Wong and Wang (1977) and Wong and Poon (1989) which offer a different entropy-based learning algorithm are shown to rest on inappropriate assumptions.
RES - a Relative Method for Evidential Reasoning
An, Zhi, Bell, David A., Hughes, John G.
In this paper we describe a novel method for evidential reasoning [1]. It involves modelling the process of evidential reasoning in three steps, namely, evidence structure construction, evidence accumulation, and decision making. The proposed method, called RES, is novel in that evidence strength is associated with an evidential support relationship (an argument) between a pair of statements and such strength is carried by comparison between arguments. This is in contrast to the onventional approaches, where evidence strength is represented numerically and is associated with a statement.