One approach to conserving endangered species is to purchase and protect a set of land parcels in a way that maximizes the expected future population spread. Unfortunately, an ideal set of parcels may have a cost that is beyond the immediate budget constraints and must thus be purchased incrementally. This raises the challenge of deciding how to schedule the parcel purchases in a way that maximizes the flexibility of budget usage while keeping population spread loss in control. In this paper, we introduce a formulation of this scheduling problem that does not rely on knowing the future budgets of an organization. In particular, we consider scheduling purchases in a way that achieves a population spread no less than desired but delays purchases as long as possible. Such schedules offer conservation planners maximum flexibility and use available budgets in the most efficient way. We develop the problem formally as a stochastic optimization problem over a network cascade model describing a commonly used model of population spread. Our solution approach is based on reducing the stochastic problem to a novel variant of the directed Steiner tree problem, which we call the set-weighted directed Steiner graph problem. We show that this problem is computationally hard, motivating the development of a primal-dual algorithm for the problem that computes both a feasible solution and a bound on the quality of an optimal solution. We evaluate the approach on both real and synthetic conservation data with a standard population spread model. The algorithm is shown to produce near optimal results and is much more scalable than more generic off-the-shelf optimizers. Finally, we evaluate a variant of the algorithm to explore the trade-offs between budget savings and population growth.

The paper explores the potential of weighted best-first search schemes as anytime optimization algorithms for solving graphical models tasks such as MPE (Most Probable Explanation) or MAP (Maximum a Posteriori) and WCSP (Weighted Constraint Satisfaction Problem). While such schemes were widely investigated for path-finding tasks, their application for graphical models was largely ignored, possibly due to their memory requirements. Compared to the depth-first branch and bound, which has long been the algorithm of choice for optimization in graphical models, a valuable virtue of weighted best-first search is that they are w-optimal, i.e. when terminated, they return a solution cost C and a weight w, such that C < = wC*, where C* is the optimal cost. We report on a significant empirical evaluation, demonstrating the usefulness of weighted best-first search as approximation anytime schemes (that have suboptimality bounds) and compare against one of the best depth-first branch and bound solver to date. We also investigate the impact of different heuristic functions on the behaviour of the algorithms.

We carry out an empirical study of classification-based policy iteration (CBPI) in a simplified Markovian Decision Process (MDP). In this simple MDP, we expose some pathological cases where variance in state-action value estimates can degrade the performance of CBPI to the point of complete ineffectiveness. In particular, it is shown that with enough variance in the returns, e.g., if we estimate state-action values with a single rollout, CBPI drifts away from the/an optimal policy over iterations, even when the optimal policy is its initial policy to iterate over. From our investigation we also arrived at a natural cost-sensitive classification problem where the costs are noisy, a problem which to the best of our knowledge has not been studied in the classification literature.

Contract bridge is an example of an incomplete information game for which computers typically do not perform better than expert human bridge players. In particular, the typical bidding decisions of human bridge players are difficult to mimic with a computer program, and thus automatic bridge bidding remains to be a challenging research problem. Currently, the possibility of automatic bidding without mimicking human players has not been fully studied. In this work, we take an initiative to study such a possibility for the specific problem of bidding without competition. We propose a novel learning framework to let a computer program learn its own bidding decisions. The framework transforms the bidding problem into a learning problem, and then solves the problem with a carefully designed model that consists of cost-sensitive classifiers and upper-confidence-bound algorithms. We validate the proposed model and find that it performs competitively to the champion computer bridge program that mimics human bidding decisions.

Decision making and intervention against infectious diseases require analysis of large volumes of data, including demographic data, contact networks, age-specific contact rates, mobility networks, and healthcare and control intervention data and models. In this paper, we present our Networks-Of-Traces for Epidemic Spread Simulations (NOTES2) model and system which aim at assisting experts and helping them explore existing simulation trace data sets. NOTES2 supports analysis and indexing of simulation data sets as well as parameter and feature analysis, including identification of unknown dependencies across the input parameters and output variables spanning the different layers of the observation and simulation data.

Taxi service is an indispensable part of public transport in modern cities. The taxi system is operated by a large number of self-controlled drivers lacking of centralized scheduling and control, which makes it inefficient, difficult to analyze and optimize. It is thus important to take into account taxi drivers' strategic behavior in order to optimize taxi systems' efficiency. This paper reviews existing taxi system researches for modeling taxi system dynamics, introduces the taxi system efficiency optimization problem, and presents a game theoretic approach for optimizing the efficiency of taxi systems. Challenges and open issues in the taxi system efficiency optimization problem are also discussed.

Cyber-Physical Production Systems’ (CPPSs) main feature is adaptability, i.e. they can adapt quickly to new production goals such as new products or product variants. Today, the bottleneck of such approaches is the automation system, which still requires high manual engineering efforts for every adaptation step. Many recent solutions for a more adaptable automation software have focused on the automatic orchestration of software systems: for a new product and production configuration, a software solutions is created by putting together reusable software components. But such solutions come with a price: reusable software components must be, by definition, applicable to wide range of configurations. For this, software components come with free parameters that must be set according to the current configuration. Typically, the main problem is not the orchestration of software components but their correct parameterization. This paper presents, to the best of our knowledge for the first time, a solution to the parameterization problem of adaptable, CPPS-enable software systems. Due to the nature of CPPSs, no direct computation of parameters is possible. Instead, an iteration-based approach using a model of both the plant and the automation system is needed. An example from process industry illustrates the ideas.

The growing use of social media has made it a critical component of disaster response and recovery efforts. Both in terms of preparedness and response, public health officials and first responders have turned to automated tools to assist with organizing and visualizing large streams of social media. In turn, this has spurred new research into algorithms for information extraction, event detection and organization, and information visualization. One challenge of these efforts has been the lack of a common corpus for disaster response on which researchers can compare and contrast their work. This paper describes the Hurricane Sandy Twitter Corpus: 6.5 million geotagged Twitter posts from the geographic area and time period of the 2012 Hurricane Sandy.

With the rapid development of mobile devices, global position system (GPS) and Web 2.0 technologies, location-based social networks (LBSNs) have attracted millions of users to share rich information, such as experiences and tips. Point-of-Interest (POI) recommender system plays an important role in LBSNs since it can help users explore attractive locations as well as help social network service providers design location-aware advertisements for Point-of-Interest. In this paper, we present a brief survey over the task of Point-of-Interest recommendation in LBSNs and discuss some research directions for Point-of-Interest recommendation. We first describe the unique characteristics of Point-of-Interest recommendation, which distinguish Point-of-Interest recommendation approaches from traditional recommendation approaches. Then, according to what type of additional information are integrated with check-in data by POI recommendation algorithms, we classify POI recommendation algorithms into four categories: pure check-in data based POI recommendation approaches, geographical influence enhanced POI recommendation approaches, social influence enhanced POI recommendation approaches and temporal influence enhanced POI recommendation approaches. Finally, we discuss future research directions for Point-of-Interest recommendation.

Causal structure discovery methods are investigated recently but none of them has taken possible time-varying structure into consideration. This paper uses a notion of causal time-varying dynamic Bayesian network (CTV-DBN) and define a causal boundary to govern cross-time information sharing. CTV-DBN is constructed by using asymmetric kernels to address sample scarcity and to adhere to causal principles; while maintaining good variance and bias trade-off. Upon satisfying causal Markov assumption, causal inference can be made based on manipulation rule. We explore trajectory data collected from taxis in Beijing which exhibit heterogeneous patterns, data sparseness and distribution skewness. Experiments show that by using casual structures and trajectory clustering, we can analyse the spatio-temporal behavior of the trajectory data.