An important requirement of household energy simulation models is their accuracy in estimating energy demand and its fluctuations. Occupant behavior has a major impact upon energy demand. However, Markov chains, the traditional approach to model occupant behavior, (1) has limitations in accurately capturing the coordinated behavior of occupants and (2) is prone to over-fitting. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach that relies on a combination of data mining techniques. The core idea of our model is to determine the behavior of occupants based on nearest neighbor comparison over a database of sample data. Importantly, the model takes into account features related to the coordination of occupants' activities. We use a customized distance function suited for mixed categorical and numerical data. Further, association rule learning allows us to capture the coordination between occupants. Using real data from four households in Japan we are able to show that our model outperforms the traditional Markov chain model with respect to occupant coordination and generalization of behavior patterns.

Machine learning algorithms have been applied to predict agent behaviors in real-world dynamic systems, such as advertiser behaviors in sponsored search and worker behaviors in crowdsourcing. Behavior data in these systems are generated by live agents: once systems change due to adoption of prediction models learnt from behavior data, agents will observe and respond to these changes by changing their own behaviors accordingly. Therefore, the evolving behavior data will not be identically and independently distributed, posing great challenges to theoretical analysis. To tackle this challenge, in this paper, we propose to use Markov Chain in Random Environments (MCRE) to describe the behavior data, and perform generalization analysis of machine learning algorithms on its basis. We propose a novel technique that transforms the original time-variant MCRE into a higher-dimensional time-homogeneous Markov chain, which is easier to deal with. We prove the convergence of the new Markov chain when time approaches infinity. Then we obtain a generalization bound for the machine learning algorithms on the behavior data generated by the new Markov chain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that performs the generalization analysis on data generated by complex processes in real-world dynamic systems.

We deal with embedding a large scale knowledge graph composed of entities and relations into a continuous vector space. TransE is a promising method proposed recently, which is very efficient while achieving state-of-the-art predictive performance. We discuss some mapping properties of relations which should be considered in embedding, such as reflexive, one-to-many, many-to-one, and many-to-many. We note that TransE does not do well in dealing with these properties. Some complex models are capable of preserving these mapping properties but sacrifice efficiency in the process. To make a good trade-off between model capacity and efficiency, in this paper we propose TransH which models a relation as a hyperplane together with a translation operation on it. In this way, we can well preserve the above mapping properties of relations with almost the same model complexity of TransE. Additionally, as a practical knowledge graph is often far from completed, how to construct negative examples to reduce false negative labels in training is very important. Utilizing the one-to-many/many-to-one mapping property of a relation, we propose a simple trick to reduce the possibility of false negative labeling. We conduct extensive experiments on link prediction, triplet classification and fact extraction on benchmark datasets like WordNet and Freebase. Experiments show TransH delivers significant improvements over TransE on predictive accuracy with comparable capability to scale up.

Conformity is the inclination of a person to be influenced by others. In this paper, we study how the conformity tendency of a person changes with her role, as defined by her structural properties in a social network. We first formalize conformity using a utility function based on the conformity theory from social psychology, and validate the proposed utility function by proving the existence of Nash Equilibria when all users in a network behave according to it. We then extend and incorporate the utility function into a probabilistic topic model, called the Role-Conformity Model (RCM), for modeling user behaviors under the effect of conformity. We apply the proposed RCM to several academic research networks, and discover that people with higher degree and lower clustering coefficient are more likely to conform to others. We also evaluate RCM through the task of word usage prediction in academic publications, and show significant improvements over baseline models.

Influence maximization problem is to find a set of seed nodes in a social network such that their influence spread is maximized under certain propagation models. A few algorithms have been proposed for solving this problem. However, they have not considered the impact of novelty decay on influence propagation, i.e., repeated exposures will have diminishing influence on users. In this paper, we consider the problem of influence maximization with novelty decay (IMND). We investigate the effect of novelty decay on influence propagation on real-life datasets and formulate the IMND problem. We further analyze the problem properties and propose an influence estimation technique. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on four social networks.

Diabetes complications often afflict diabetes patients seriously: over 68% of diabetes-related mortality is caused by diabetes complications. In this paper, we study the problem of automatically diagnosing diabetes complications from patients' lab test results. The objective problem has two main challenges: 1) feature sparseness: a patient only undergoes 1.26% lab tests on average, and 65.5% types of lab tests are performed on samples from less than 10 patients; 2) knowledge skewness: it lacks comprehensive detailed domain knowledge of the association between diabetes complications and lab tests. To address these challenges, we propose a novel probabilistic model called Sparse Factor Graph Model (SparseFGM). SparseFGM projects sparse features onto a lower-dimensional latent space, which alleviates the problem of sparseness. SparseFGM is also able to capture the associations between complications and lab tests, which help handle the knowledge skewness. We evaluate the proposed model on a large collections of real medical records. SparseFGM outperforms (+20% by F1) baselines significantly and gives detailed associations between diabetes complications and lab tests.

ABox abduction is an important reasoning mechanism for description logic ontologies. It computes all minimal explanations (sets of ABox assertions) whose appending to a consistent ontology enforces the entailment of an observation while keeps the ontology consistent. We focus on practical computation for a general problem of ABox abduction, called the query abduction problem, where an observation is a Boolean conjunctive query and the explanations may contain fresh individuals neither in the ontology nor in the observation. However, in this problem there can be infinitely many minimal explanations. Hence we first identify a class of TBoxes called first-order rewritable TBoxes. It guarantees the existence of finitely many minimal explanations and is sufficient for many ontology applications. To reduce the number of explanations that need to be computed, we introduce a special kind of minimal explanations called representative explanations from which all minimal explanations can be retrieved. We develop a tractable method (in data complexity) for computing all representative explanations in a consistent ontology. xperimental results demonstrate that the method is efficient and scalable for ontologies with large ABoxes.

Entity search is to retrieve a ranked list of named entities of target types to a given query. In this paper, we propose an approach of entity search by formalizing both context matching and category matching. In addition, we propose a result re-ranking strategy that can be easily adapted to achieve a hybrid of two context matching strategies. Experiments on the INEX 2009 entity ranking task show that the proposed approach achieves a significant improvement of the entity search performance (xinfAP from 0.27 to 0.39) over the existing solutions.

Halpern and Pearl introduced a definition of actual causality; Eiter and Lukasiewicz showed that computing whether X = x is a cause of Y = y is NP-complete in binary models (where all variables can take on only two values) and \Sigma^P_2-complete in general models. In the final version of their paper, Halpern and Pearl slightly modified the definition of actual cause, in order to deal with problems pointed by Hopkins and Pearl. As we show, this modification has a nontrivial impact on the complexity of computing actual cause. To characterize the complexity, a new family D_k^P , k = 1,2,3,..., of complexity classes is introduced, which generalizes the class D^P introduced by Papadimitriou and Yannakakis (DP is just D^P_1). We show that the complexity of computing causality under the updated definition is D^P_2 -complete. Chockler and Halpern extended the definition of causality by introducing notions of responsibility and blame. The complexity of determining the degree of responsibility and blame using the original definition of causality was completely characterized. Again, we show that changing the definition of causality affects the complexity, and completely characterize it using the updated definition.

This paper focuses on computing general first-order parallel and prioritized circumscription with varying constants. We propose linear translations from general first-order circumscription to first-order theories under stable model semantics over arbitrary structures, including Tr_v for parallel circumscription and Tr^s_v for conjunction of parallel circumscriptions (further for prioritized circumscription). To improve the efficiency, we give an optimization \Gamma_{\exists} to reduce logic programs in size when eliminating existential quantifiers during the translations. Based on these results, a general first-order circumscription solver, named cfo2lp, is developed by calling answer set programming (ASP) solvers. Using circuit diagnosis problem and extended stable marriage problem as benchmarks, we compare cfo2lp with a propositional circumscription solver circ2dlp and an ASP solver with complex optimization metasp on efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that for problems represented by first-order circumscription naturally and intuitively, cfo2lp can compute all solutions over finite structures. We also apply our approach to description logics with circumscription and repairs in inconsistent databases, which can be handled effectively.