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Bayesian Poisson Tensor Factorization for Inferring Multilateral Relations from Sparse Dyadic Event Counts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country $i$ took action $a$ toward country $j$ at time $t$"---known as dyadic events---in order to form and test theories of international relations. We represent these event data as a tensor of counts and develop Bayesian Poisson tensor factorization to infer a low-dimensional, interpretable representation of their salient patterns. We demonstrate that our model's predictive performance is better than that of standard non-negative tensor factorization methods. We also provide a comparison of our variational updates to their maximum likelihood counterparts. In doing so, we identify a better way to form point estimates of the latent factors than that typically used in Bayesian Poisson matrix factorization. Finally, we showcase our model as an exploratory analysis tool for political scientists. We show that the inferred latent factor matrices capture interpretable multilateral relations that both conform to and inform our knowledge of international affairs.


Looking for Robots That Will Cooperate, Not Terminate - NYTimes.com

NYT > Technology

A robot that evoked a human form paused in front of a door leading to a simulated nuclear power plant accident and inexplicably stood motionless. Suddenly, from the grandstands overlooking the scene, a group of schoolchildren began to chant: "Go Robot! What has long been thought of as a brave new world in which mobile robots freely move about in factories, towns and cities is now approaching. Robots will advance from the dull, dirty and dangerous work that they do today to take on a range of tasks, from rescue work to elder care in close contact with humans. Just as software robots such as Apple's Siri and Microsoft's Cortana have rapidly become useful personal assistants, physical robots will occupy a place in the near future. That is the world imagined by government officials and technologists at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the American military organization that is charged with the mission of avoiding a Sputnik-style technology threat to national security. Last weekend at the sprawling Los Angeles County Fairgrounds, Darpa concluded the Robotics Challenge, a two-year-long effort to jump start this next generation of smart and presumably helpful robots by offering a cash prize for the designers of a machine that could work in concert with human controllers in a hazardous environment. The $3.5 million competition was won by a South Korean team from the Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. The technology may still seem far-fetched, but betting against the agency that has had a remarkably far-reaching effect on the modern world -- from funding the work that led to both the personal computer and the Internet, to setting expectations that self-driving vehicles are only a matter of years away -- might be a mistake. Darpa officials have taken pains to assure anyone who would listen that it was not primarily interested in designing Terminators, or killer robots. The agency is an arm of the Pentagon, and its futuristic robots are an example of what is described as a "dual use" technology that will have both military and civilian uses. Darpa, which is also known for pioneering the Internet surveillance system that was exposed last year by Edward J. Snowden, has, under its current director, Arati Prabhakar, expanded its watchfulness over the potential effect of the technologies it helps foster. In introducing a workshop for discussion on the effect of robotics held at the end of the challenge competition on Sunday, Dr. Prabhakar described the agency as being committed to a broader mission: "We work together to build the future of robots that can help extend the capabilities that we have and build the technologies that will aid humanity in the future.


Automated Linear Function Submission-based Double Auction as Bottom-up Real-Time Pricing in a Regional Prosumers' Electricity Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A linear function submission-based double-auction (LFS-DA) mechanism for a regional electricity network is proposed in this paper. Each agent in the network is equipped with a battery and a generator. Each agent simultaneously becomes a producer and consumer of electricity, i.e., a prosumer and trades electricity in the regional market at a variable price. In the LFS-DA, each agent uses linear demand and supply functions when they submit bids and asks to an auctioneer in the regional market.The LFS-DA can achieve an exact balance between electricity demand and supply for each time slot throughout the learning phase and was shown capable of solving the primal problem of maximizing the social welfare of the network without any central price setter, e.g., a utility or a large electricity company, in contrast with conventional real-time pricing (RTP). This paper presents a clarification of the relationship between the RTP algorithm derived on the basis of a dual decomposition framework and LFS-DA. Specifically, we proved that the changes in the price profile of the LFS-DA mechanism are equal to those achieved by the RTP mechanism derived from the dual decomposition framework except for a constant factor.


Multi-stage Multi-task feature learning via adaptive threshold

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-task feature learning aims to identity the shared features among tasks to improve generalization. It has been shown that by minimizing non-convex learning models, a better solution than the convex alternatives can be obtained. Therefore, a non-convex model based on the capped-$\ell_{1},\ell_{1}$ regularization was proposed in \cite{Gong2013}, and a corresponding efficient multi-stage multi-task feature learning algorithm (MSMTFL) was presented. However, this algorithm harnesses a prescribed fixed threshold in the definition of the capped-$\ell_{1},\ell_{1}$ regularization and the lack of adaptivity might result in suboptimal performance. In this paper we propose to employ an adaptive threshold in the capped-$\ell_{1},\ell_{1}$ regularized formulation, where the corresponding variant of MSMTFL will incorporate an additional component to adaptively determine the threshold value. This variant is expected to achieve a better feature selection performance over the original MSMTFL algorithm. In particular, the embedded adaptive threshold component comes from our previously proposed iterative support detection (ISD) method \cite{Wang2010}. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of this new variant over the original MSMTFL.


Formal Concept Analysis for Knowledge Discovery from Biological Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to rapid advancement in high-throughput techniques, such as microarrays and next generation sequencing technologies, biological data are increasing exponentially. The current challenge in computational biology and bioinformatics research is how to analyze these huge raw biological data to extract biologically meaningful knowledge. This review paper presents the applications of formal concept analysis for the analysis and knowledge discovery from biological data, including gene expression discretization, gene co-expression mining, gene expression clustering, finding genes in gene regulatory networks, enzyme/protein classifications, binding site classifications, and so on. It also presents a list of FCA-based software tools applied in biological domain and covers the challenges faced so far.


A Preliminary Selection of Problems in Heuristic Search

AAAI Conferences

The Heuristic Search community has been concentrating much effort during the last decades in solving more and more efficiently the SHORTEST PATH problem (SPP). As a result, a valuable body of scientific results has been produced, mostly in the form of heuristics and search algorithms. However, not much attention has been given to other problems even if they result from slight variations of the typical problems addressed by the community. Furthermore, other communities attempt at solving hard combinatorial problems which might be well solved with heuristic search. In this paper, an attempt is presented to introduce a preliminary selection of relevant problems that goes well beyond the classical SPP.


Improved Multi-Heuristic A* for Searching with Uncalibrated Heuristics

AAAI Conferences

Recently, several researchers have brought forth the benefits of searching with multiple (and possibly inadmissible) heuristics, arguing how different heuristics could be independently useful in different parts of the state space. However, algorithms that use inadmissible heuristics in the traditional best-first sense, such as the recently developed Multi-Heuristic A* (MHA*), are subject to a crippling calibration problem: they prioritize nodes for expansion by additively combining the cost-to-come and the inadmissible heuristics even if those heuristics have no connection with the cost-to-go (e.g., the heuristics are uncalibrated) . For instance, if the inadmissible heuristic were an order of magnitude greater than the perfect heuristic, an algorithm like MHA* would simply reduce to a weighted A* search with one consistent heuristic. In this work, we introduce a general multi-heuristic search framework that solves the calibration problem and as a result a) facilitates the effective use of multiple uncalibrated inadmissible heuristics, and b) provides significantly better performance than MHA* whenever tighter sub-optimality bounds on solution quality are desired. Experimental evaluations on a complex full-body robotics motion planning problem and large sliding tile puzzles demonstrate the benefits of our framework.


Sibling Conspiracy Number Search

AAAI Conferences

For some two-player games (e.g. Go), no accurate and inexpensive heuristic is known for evaluating leaves of a search tree. For other games (e.g. chess), a heuristic is known (sum of piece values). For other games (e.g. Hex), only a local heuristic โ€” one that compares children reliably, but non-siblings poorly โ€” is known (cell voltage drop in the Shannon/Anshelevich electric circuit model). In this paper we introduce a search algorithm for a two-player perfect information game with a reasonable local heuristic. Sibling Conspiracy Number Search (SCNS) is an anytime best-first version of Conspiracy Number Search based not on evaluation of leaf states of the search tree, but โ€” for each node โ€” on relative evaluation scores of all children of that node. SCNS refines CNS search value intervals, converging to Proof Number Search. SCNS is a good framework for a game player. We tested SCNS in the domain of Hex, with promising results. We implemented an 11-by-11 SCNS Hex bot, DeepHex. We competed DeepHex against current Hex bot champion MoHex, a Monte-Carlo Tree Search player, and previous Hex bot champion Wolve, an Alpha-Beta Search player. DeepHex widely outperforms Wolve at all time levels, and narrowly outperforms MoHex once time reaches 4min/move.


Search Problems in the Domain of Multiplication: Case Study on Anomaly Detection Using Markov Chains

AAAI Conferences

Most work in heuristic search focused on path finding problems in which the cost of a path in the state space is the sum of its edges' weights. This paper addresses a different class of path finding problems in which the cost of a path is the product of its weights. We present reductions from different classes of multiplicative path finding problems to suitable classes of additive path finding problems. As a case study, we consider the problem of finding least and most probable paths in a Markov Chain, where path cost corresponds to the probability of traversing it. The importance of this problem is demonstrated in an anomaly detection application for cyberspace security. Three novel anomaly detection metrics for Markov Chains are presented, where computing these metrics require finding least and most probable paths. The underlying Markov Chain is dynamically changing, and so fast methods for computing least and most probable paths are needed. We propose such methods based on the proposed reductions and using heuristic search algorithms.


Dynamic Redeployment to Counter Congestion or Starvation in Vehicle Sharing Systems

AAAI Conferences

Vehicle sharing (ex: bike sharing, car sharing) systems, an attractive alternative of private transportation, are widely adopted in major cities around the world. In vehicle-sharing systems, base stations (ex: docking stations for bikes) are strategically placed throughout a city and each of the base stations contain a pre-determined number of vehicles at the beginning of each day. Due to the stochastic and individualistic movement of customers, there is typically either congestion (more than required) or starvation (fewer than required) of vehicles at certain base stations, which causes a significant loss in demand. We propose to dynamically redeploy idle vehicles using carriers so as to minimize lost demand or alternatively maximize revenue for the vehicle sharing company. To that end, we contribute an optimization formulation to jointly address the redeployment (of vehicles) and routing (of carriers) problems and provide two approaches that rely on decomposability and abstraction of problem domains to reduce the computation time significantly.