The hospital readmission rate of patients within 30 days after discharge is broadly accepted as a healthcare quality measure and cost driver in the United States. The ability to estimate hospitalization costs alongside 30 day risk-stratification for such readmissions provides additional benefit for accountable care, now a global issue and foundation for the U.S.~government mandate under the Affordable Care Act. Recent data mining efforts either predict healthcare costs or risk of hospital readmission, but not both. In this paper we present a dual predictive modeling effort that utilizes healthcare data to predict the risk and cost of any hospital readmission (``all-cause''). For this purpose, we explore machine learning algorithms to do accurate predictions of healthcare costs and risk of 30-day readmission.Results on risk prediction for ``all-cause'' readmission compared to the standardized readmission tool (LACE) are promising, and the proposed techniques for cost prediction consistently outperform baseline models and demonstrate substantially lower mean absolute error (MAE).

Multiple concurrent physiological streams generated by various medical devices play important roles in patient condition assessment. However, these physiological streams needto be analyzed together and output in real-time for preciseand timely controlling and management, which poses a non-trivial challenge to existing methods. This paper presents ourresearch on real-time assessing based on this kind of data.To address this problem, we first extract sketches from original data with the help of adaptive sampling and wave splittingalgorithm, then define scalable operators on sketches and propose MUNCA (MUlti-dimensional Nearest Center Analysis)to combine these multiple concurrent data together for anal-ysis. Experiments on real data demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

Constrained sampling and counting are two fundamental problems in artificial intelligence with a diverse range of applications, spanning probabilistic reasoning and planning to constrained-random verification. While the theory of these problems was thoroughly investigated in the 1980s, prior work either did not scale to industrial size instances or gave up correctness guarantees to achieve scalability. Recently, we proposed a novel approach that combines universal hashing and SAT solving and scales to formulas with hundreds of thousands of variables without giving up correctness guarantees. This paper provides an overview of the key ingredients of the approach and discusses challenges that need to be overcome to handle larger real-world instances.

Model counting and weighted model counting are key problems in artificial intelligence. Marginal inference can be reduced to model counting in many statistical-relational systems, such as Markov Logic. One common approach used by model counters is splitting a theory into disjoint subtheories, performing model counting on the subtheories, and then caching the result. If an identical subtheory is encountered again in the search, the cached result is used, greatly reducing runtime. In this work we introduce a way to cache symmetric subtheories compactly, which could potentially decrease required cache size, increase cache hits, and decrease runtime of solving.

2QBF is a special case of general quantified Boolean formulae (QBF). It is limited to just two quantification levels, i.e., to a form forall-exists. Despite this limitation it applies to a wide range of applications, e.g., to artificial intelligence, graph theory, synthesis, etc.. Recent research showed that CEGAR-based methods give a performance boost to QBF solving (e.g, compared to QDPLL). Conjunctive normal form (CNF) is a commonly accepted representation for both SAT and QBF problems; however, it does not reflect the circuit structure that might be present in the problem. Existing attempts of extracting this structure from CNF and using it in 2QBF context do not show advantages over CNF based 2QBF solvers. In this work we introduce a new workflow for 2QBF, containing a new semantic circuit extraction algorithm and a CEGAR-based 2QBF solver that uses circuit structure and is improved by a so-called "cofactor sharing'' heuristics. We evaluate the proposed methodology on a range of benchmarks and show the practicality of the new approach.

With the efforts of moving to sustainable and reliable energy supply, electricity markets are undergoing far-reaching changes. Due to the high-cost of failure in the real-world, it is important to test new market structures in simulation. This is the focus of the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC), which proposes autonomous electricity broker agents as a means for stabilizing the electricity grid. This paper focuses on the question: how should an autonomous electricity broker agent act in competitive electricity markets to maximize its profit. We formalize the complete electricity trading problem as a continuous, high-dimensional Markov Decision Process (MDP), which is computationally intractable to solve. Our formalization provides a guideline for approximating the MDP's solution, and for extending existing solutions. We show that a previously champion broker can be viewed as approximating the solution using a lookahead policy. We present TacTex15, which improves upon this previous approximation and achieves state-of-the-art performance in competitions and controlled experiments. Using thousands of experiments against 2015 finalist brokers, we analyze TacTex15's performance and the reasons for its success. We find that lookahead policies can be effective, but their performance can be sensitive to errors in the transition function prediction, specifically demand-prediction.

The current approaches to model dynamism in DCOPs solve a sequence of static problems, reacting to the changes in the environment as the agents observe them. Such approaches, thus, ignore possible predictions on the environment evolution. To overcome such limitations, we introduce the Proactive Dynamic DCOP (PD-DCOP) model, a novel formalism to model dynamic DCOPs in the presence of exogenous uncertainty. In contrast to reactive approaches, PD-DCOPs are able to explicitly model the possible changes to the problem, and take such information into account proactively, when solving the dynamically changing problem.

Most modern network-based intrusion detection systems (IDSs) passively monitor network traffic to identify possible attacks through known vectors. Though useful, this approach has widely known high false positive rates, often causing administrators to suffer from a "cry wolf effect," where they ignore all warnings because so many have been false. In this paper, we focus on a method to reduce this effect using an idea borrowed from computer vision and neuroscience called active perception. Our approach is informed by theoretical ideas from decision theory and recent research results in neuroscience. The active perception agent allocates computational and sensing resources to (approximately) optimize its Value of Information. To do this, it draws on models to direct sensors towards phenomena of greatest interest to inform decisions about cyber defense actions. By identifying critical network assets, the organization's mission measures self-interest (and value of information). This model enables the system to follow leads from inexpensive, inaccurate alerts with targeted use of expensive, accurate sensors. This allows the deployment of sensors to build structured interpretations of situations. From these, an organization can meet mission-centered decision-making requirements with calibrated responses proportional to the likelihood of true detection and degree of threat.

A key front for ethical questions in artificial intelligence, and computer science more generally, is teaching students how to engage with the questions they will face in their professional careers based on the tools and technologies we teach them.  In past work (and current teaching) we have advocated for the use of science fiction as an appropriate tool which enables AI researchers to engage students and the public on the current state and potential impacts of AI. We present teaching suggestions for E.M. Forster's 1909 story, "The Machine Stops," to teach topics in computer ethics.  In particular, we use the story to examine ethical issues related to being constantly available for remote contact, physically isolated, and dependent on a machine --- all without mentioning computer games or other media to which students have strong emotional associations. We give a high-level view of common ethical theories and indicate how they inform the questions raised by the story and afford a structure for thinking about how to address them.

The focus of this work is to investigate how children's perception of the robot changes with age and gender, and to enable the robot to adapt to these differences for improving human-robot interaction (HRI). We propose a neural network-based learning architecture to estimate children's age and gender based on the body motion performing a set of actions. To evaluate our system, we collected a fully annotated depth dataset of 28 children (aged between 7 and 16 years old) and applied it to a learning-based method for age and gender estimation by modeling children's 3D skeleton motion data. We discuss our results that show an average accuracy of 95.2% and 90.3% for age and gender respectively in the context of a real-world scenario.