We propose a method for constructing distribution-free prediction intervals in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Building on the conditional guarantee framework in conformal inference, we reformulate conditional coverage as marginal coverage over a class of IV shifts $\mathcal{F}$. Our method can be combined with any NPIV estimator, including sieve 2SLS and other machine-learning-based NPIV methods such as neural networks minimax approaches. Our theoretical analysis establishes distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over a practitioner-chosen class of IV shifts.

As a representative continuous-depth neural network approach, stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have attracted considerable attention due to their solid theoretical foundations and strong potential for real-world applications. However, their reliance on numerical SDE solvers inevitably incurs a large number of function evaluations (NFEs), resulting in high computational cost and occasional convergence instability. To address these challenges, we propose a Nesterov-accelerated gradient (NAG) enhanced SDE-BNN model. By integrating NAG into the SDE-BNN framework along with an NFE-dependent residual skip connection, our method accelerates convergence and substantially reduces NFEs during both training and testing. Extensive empirical results show that our model consistently outperforms conventional SDE-BNNs across various tasks, including image classification and sequence modeling, achieving lower NFEs and improved predictive accuracy.

Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or neural-network-based, remain fundamentally trajectory-oriented: predictive distributions are usually accessed through ensembles or sampling, rather than evolved directly as dynamical objects. A distribution-to-distribution (D2D) neural probabilistic forecasting framework is developed to operate directly on predictive distributions. The framework introduces a distributional encoding and decoding structure around a replaceable neural forecasting module, using kernel mean embeddings to represent input distributions and mixture density networks to parameterise output predictive distributions. This design enables recursive propagation of predictive uncertainty within a unified end-to-end neural architecture, with model training and evaluation carried out directly in terms of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework is demonstrated on the Lorenz63 chaotic dynamical system. Results show that the D2D model captures nontrivial distributional evolution under nonlinear dynamics, produces skillful probabilistic forecasts without explicit ensemble simulation, and remains competitive with, and in some cases outperforms, a simplified perfect model benchmark. These findings point to a new paradigm for probabilistic forecasting, in which predictive distributions are learned and evolved directly rather than reconstructed indirectly through ensemble-based uncertainty propagation.

We introduce the Multilevel Euler-Maruyama (ML-EM) method compute solutions of SDEs and ODEs using a range of approximators $f^1,\dots,f^k$ to the drift $f$ with increasing accuracy and computational cost, only requiring a few evaluations of the most accurate $f^k$ and many evaluations of the less costly $f^1,\dots,f^{k-1}$. If the drift lies in the so-called Harder than Monte Carlo (HTMC) regime, i.e. it requires $ε^{-γ}$ compute to be $ε$-approximated for some $γ>2$, then ML-EM $ε$-approximates the solution of the SDE with $ε^{-γ}$ compute, improving over the traditional EM rate of $ε^{-γ-1}$. In other terms it allows us to solve the SDE at the same cost as a single evaluation of the drift. In the context of diffusion models, the different levels $f^{1},\dots,f^{k}$ are obtained by training UNets of increasing sizes, and ML-EM allows us to perform sampling with the equivalent of a single evaluation of the largest UNet. Our numerical experiments confirm our theory: we obtain up to fourfold speedups for image generation on the CelebA dataset downscaled to 64x64, where we measure a $γ\approx2.5$. Given that this is a polynomial speedup, we expect even stronger speedups in practical applications which involve orders of magnitude larger networks.

Constrained optimization in high-dimensional black-box settings is difficult due to expensive evaluations, the lack of gradient information, and complex feasibility regions. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method that combines a penalty formulation, a surrogate model, and a trust region strategy. The constrained problem is converted to an unconstrained form by penalizing constraint violations, which provides a unified modeling framework. A trust region restricts the search to a local region around the current best solution, which improves stability and efficiency in high dimensions. Within this region, we use the Expected Improvement acquisition function to select evaluation points by balancing improvement and uncertainty. The proposed Trust Region method integrates penalty-based constraint handling with local surrogate modeling. This combination enables efficient exploration of feasible regions while maintaining sample efficiency. We compare the proposed method with state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world high-dimensional constrained optimization problems. The results show that the method identifies high-quality feasible solutions with fewer evaluations and maintains stable performance across different settings.

We propose a neural network model for contextual regression in which the regression model depends on contextual features that determine the active submodel and an algorithm to fit the model. The proposed simple contextual neural network (SCtxtNN) separates context identification from context-specific regression, resulting in a structured and interpretable architecture with fewer parameters than a fully connected feed-forward network. We show mathematically that the proposed architecture is sufficient to represent contextual linear regression models using only standard neural network components. Numerical experiments are provided to support the theoretical result, showing that the proposed model achieves lower excess mean squared error and more stable performance than feed-forward neural networks with comparable numbers of parameters, while larger networks improve accuracy only at the cost of increased complexity. The results suggest that incorporating contextual structure can improve model efficiency while preserving interpretability.

Independent component analysis is a core framework within blind source separation for recovering latent source signals from observed mixtures under statistical independence assumptions. In this work, we propose PDGMM-VAE, a source-oriented variational autoencoder in which each latent dimension, interpreted explicitly as an individual source signal, is assigned its own Gaussian mixture model prior. Unlike conventional VAE formulations with a shared simple prior, the proposed framework imposes per-dimension heterogeneous prior constraints, enabling the model to capture diverse non-Gaussian source statistics and thereby promote source separation under a probabilistic encoder-decoder architecture. Importantly, the parameters of these per-dimension GMM priors are not fixed in advance, but are adaptively learned and automatically refined toward convergence together with the encoder and decoder parameters under the overall training objective. Within this formulation, the encoder serves as a demixing mapping from observations to latent sources, while the decoder reconstructs the observed mixtures from the inferred components. The proposed model provides a systematic study of an idea that had previously only been noted in our preliminary form, namely, equipping different latent sources with different GMM priors for ICA, and formulates it as a full VAE framework with end-to-end training and per-dimension prior learning. Experimental results on both linear and nonlinear mixing problems demonstrate that PDGMM-VAE can recover latent source signals and achieve satisfactory separation performance.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved impressive performance in graph-related tasks. However, they suffer from poor generalization on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, as they tend to learn spurious correlations. Such correlations present a phenomenon that GNNs fail to stably learn the mutual information between prediction representations and ground-truth labels under OOD settings. To address these challenges, we formulate a causal graph starting from the essence of node classification, adopt backdoor adjustment to block non-causal paths, and theoretically derive a lower bound for improving OOD generalization of GNNs. To materialize these insights, we further propose a novel approach integrating causal representation learning and a loss replacement strategy. The former captures node-level causal invariance and reconstructs graph posterior distribution. The latter introduces asymptotic losses of the same order to replace the original losses. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in OOD generalization and effectively alleviating the phenomenon of unstable mutual information learning.

Sentiment signals derived from sparse news are commonly used in financial analysis and technology monitoring, yet transforming raw article-level observations into reliable temporal series remains a largely unsolved engineering problem. Rather than treating this as a classification challenge, we propose to frame it as a causal signal reconstruction problem: given probabilistic sentiment outputs from a fixed classifier, recover a stable latent sentiment series that is robust to the structural pathologies of news data such as sparsity, redundancy, and classifier uncertainty. We present a modular three-stage pipeline that (i) aggregates article-level scores onto a regular temporal grid with uncertainty-aware and redundancy-aware weights, (ii) fills coverage gaps through strictly causal projection rules, and (iii) applies causal smoothing to reduce residual noise. Because ground-truth longitudinal sentiment labels are typically unavailable, we introduce a label-free evaluation framework based on signal stability diagnostics, information preservation lag proxies, and counterfactual tests for causality compliance and redundancy robustness. As a secondary external check, we evaluate the consistency of reconstructed signals against stock-price data for a multi-firm dataset of AI-related news titles (November 2024 to February 2026). The key empirical finding is a three-week lead lag pattern between reconstructed sentiment and price that persists across all tested pipeline configurations and aggregation regimes, a structural regularity more informative than any single correlation coefficient. Overall, the results support the view that stable, deployable sentiment indicators require careful reconstruction, not only better classifiers.

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression and treatment response that conventional summary measures miss. Motivated by a 26-week clinical trial comparing the closed-loop insulin delivery system t:slim X2 with standard therapy in children with type 1 diabetes, we propose a probabilistic framework to model the continuous-time evolution of time-indexed distributions using continuous glucose monitoring data (CGM) collected every five minutes. We represent the glucose distribution as a Gaussian mixture, with time-varying mixture weights governed by a neural ODE. We estimate the model parameter using a distribution-matching criterion based on the maximum mean discrepancy. The resulting framework is interpretable, computationally efficient, and sensitive to subtle temporal distributional changes. Applied to CGM trial data, the method detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics that are difficult to capture with traditional analytical approaches.