Some film memorabilia fetches millions of pounds at auction, but it can cost nothing to start a collection. A life-size replica of the Joker, as played by Jack Nicholson in the 1989 film Batman, leers down from a podium. His plum-coloured suit is unmistakable in its sinister glory. A few metres away, a mannequin sports a coral and maroon-hued cowboy outfit that looks like it's seen better days. It once belonged to fictional character Marty McFly and was worn by Michael J Fox in the 1990 film Back to the Future Part III.

The increasing illegal parking has become more and more serious. Nowadays the methods of detecting illegally parked vehicles are based on background segmentation. However, this method is weakly robust and sensitive to environment. Benefitting from deep learning, this paper proposes a novel illegal vehicle parking detection system. Illegal vehicles captured by camera are firstly located and classified by the famous Single Shot MultiBox Detector (SSD) algorithm. To improve the performance, we propose to optimize SSD by adjusting the aspect ratio of default box to accommodate with our dataset better. After that, a tracking and analysis of movement is adopted to judge the illegal vehicles in the region of interest (ROI). Experiments show that the system can achieve a 99% accuracy and real-time (25FPS) detection with strong robustness in complex environments.

The classification of time series data is a challenge common to all data-driven fields. However, there is no agreement about which are the most efficient techniques to group unlabeled time-ordered data. This is because a successful classification of time series patterns depends on the goal and the domain of interest, i.e. it is application-dependent. In this article, we study free-to-play game data. In this domain, clustering similar time series information is increasingly important due to the large amount of data collected by current mobile and web applications. We evaluate which methods cluster accurately time series of mobile games, focusing on player behavior data. We identify and validate several aspects of the clustering: the similarity measures and the representation techniques to reduce the high dimensionality of time series. As a robustness test, we compare various temporal datasets of player activity from two free-to-play video-games. With these techniques we extract temporal patterns of player behavior relevant for the evaluation of game events and game-business diagnosis. Our experiments provide intuitive visualizations to validate the results of the clustering and to determine the optimal number of clusters. Additionally, we assess the common characteristics of the players belonging to the same group. This study allows us to improve the understanding of player dynamics and churn behavior.

Reducing user attrition, i.e. churn, is a broad challenge faced by several industries. In mobile social games, decreasing churn is decisive to increase player retention and rise revenues. Churn prediction models allow to understand player loyalty and to anticipate when they will stop playing a game. Thanks to these predictions, several initiatives can be taken to retain those players who are more likely to churn. Survival analysis focuses on predicting the time of occurrence of a certain event, churn in our case. Classical methods, like regressions, could be applied only when all players have left the game. The challenge arises for datasets with incomplete churning information for all players, as most of them still connect to the game. This is called a censored data problem and is in the nature of churn. Censoring is commonly dealt with survival analysis techniques, but due to the inflexibility of the survival statistical algorithms, the accuracy achieved is often poor. In contrast, novel ensemble learning techniques, increasingly popular in a variety of scientific fields, provide high-class prediction results. In this work, we develop, for the first time in the social games domain, a survival ensemble model which provides a comprehensive analysis together with an accurate prediction of churn. For each player, we predict the probability of churning as function of time, which permits to distinguish various levels of loyalty profiles. Additionally, we assess the risk factors that explain the predicted player survival times. Our results show that churn prediction by survival ensembles significantly improves the accuracy and robustness of traditional analyses, like Cox regression.

The emergence of mobile games has caused a paradigm shift in the video-game industry. Game developers now have at their disposal a plethora of information on their players, and thus can take advantage of reliable models that can accurately predict player behavior and scale to huge datasets. Churn prediction, a challenge common to a variety of sectors, is particularly relevant for the mobile game industry, as player retention is crucial for the successful monetization of a game. In this article, we present an approach to predicting game abandon based on survival ensembles. Our method provides accurate predictions on both the level at which each player will leave the game and their accumulated playtime until that moment. Further, it is robust to different data distributions and applicable to a wide range of response variables, while also allowing for efficient parallelization of the algorithm. This makes our model well suited to perform real-time analyses of churners, even for games with millions of daily active users.

In this paper, we have derived a set of sufficient conditions for reliable clustering of data produced by Bernoulli Mixture Models (BMM), when the number of clusters is unknown. A BMM refers to a random binary vector whose components are independent Bernoulli trials with cluster-specific frequencies. The problem of clustering BMM data arises in many real-world applications, most notably in population genetics where researchers aim at inferring the population structure from multilocus genotype data. Our findings stipulate a minimum dataset size and a minimum number of Bernoulli trials (or genotyped loci) per sample, such that the existence of a clustering algorithm with a sufficient accuracy is guaranteed. Moreover, the mathematical intuitions and tools behind our work can help researchers in designing more effective and theoretically-plausible heuristic methods for similar problems.

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors.

Radiomics aims to extract and analyze large numbers of quantitative features from medical images and is highly promising in staging, diagnosing, and predicting outcomes of cancer treatments. Nevertheless, several challenges need to be addressed to construct an optimal radiomics predictive model. First, the predictive performance of the model may be reduced when features extracted from an individual imaging modality are blindly combined into a single predictive model. Second, because many different types of classifiers are available to construct a predictive model, selecting an optimal classifier for a particular application is still challenging. In this work, we developed multi-modality and multi-classifier radiomics predictive models that address the aforementioned issues in currently available models. Specifically, a new reliable classifier fusion strategy was proposed to optimally combine output from different modalities and classifiers. In this strategy, modality-specific classifiers were first trained, and an analytic evidential reasoning (ER) rule was developed to fuse the output score from each modality to construct an optimal predictive model. One public data set and two clinical case studies were performed to validate model performance. The experimental results indicated that the proposed ER rule based radiomics models outperformed the traditional models that rely on a single classifier or simply use combined features from different modalities.

This paper aims at refined error analysis for binary classification using support vector machine (SVM) with Gaussian kernel and convex loss. Our first result shows that for some loss functions such as the truncated quadratic loss and quadratic loss, SVM with Gaussian kernel can reach the almost optimal learning rate, provided the regression function is smooth. Our second result shows that, for a large number of loss functions, under some Tsybakov noise assumption, if the regression function is infinitely smooth, then SVM with Gaussian kernel can achieve the learning rate of order $m^{-1}$, where $m$ is the number of samples.

Principal component analysis (PCA) has been a prominent tool for high-dimensional data analysis. Online algorithms that estimate the principal component by processing streaming data are of tremendous practical and theoretical interests. Despite its rich applications, theoretical convergence analysis remains largely open. In this paper, we cast online PCA into a stochastic nonconvex optimization problem, and we analyze the online PCA algorithm as a stochastic approximation iteration. The stochastic approximation iteration processes data points incrementally and maintains a running estimate of the principal component. We prove for the first time a nearly optimal finite-sample error bound for the online PCA algorithm. Under the subgaussian assumption, we show that the finite-sample error bound closely matches the minimax information lower bound.