With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety. Recently, the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) model has been shown to outperform traditional optical flow based methods for precipitation nowcasting, suggesting that deep learning models have a huge potential for solving the problem. However, the convolutional recurrence structure in ConvLSTM-based models is location-invariant while natural motion and transformation (e.g., rotation) are location-variant in general. Furthermore, since deep-learning-based precipitation nowcasting is a newly emerging area, clear evaluation protocols have not yet been established. To address these problems, we propose both a new model and a benchmark for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, we go beyond ConvLSTM and propose the Trajectory GRU (TrajGRU) model that can actively learn the location-variant structure for recurrent connections. Besides, we provide a benchmark that includes a real-world large-scale dataset from the Hong Kong Observatory, a new training loss, and a comprehensive evaluation protocol to facilitate future research and gauge the state of the art.

In reinforcement learning (RL), one of the key components is policy evaluation, which aims to estimate the value function (i.e., expected long-term accumulated reward) of a policy. With a good policy evaluation method, the RL algorithms will estimate the value function more accurately and find a better policy. When the state space is large or continuous \emph{Gradient-based Temporal Difference(GTD)} policy evaluation algorithms with linear function approximation are widely used. Considering that the collection of the evaluation data is both time and reward consuming, a clear understanding of the finite sample performance of the policy evaluation algorithms is very important to reinforcement learning. Under the assumption that data are i.i.d. generated, previous work provided the finite sample analysis of the GTD algorithms with constant step size by converting them into convex-concave saddle point problems. However, it is well-known that, the data are generated from Markov processes rather than i.i.d in RL problems.. In this paper, in the realistic Markov setting, we derive the finite sample bounds for the general convex-concave saddle point problems, and hence for the GTD algorithms. We have the following discussions based on our bounds. (1) With variants of step size, GTD algorithms converge. (2) The convergence rate is determined by the step size, with the mixing time of the Markov process as the coefficient. The faster the Markov processes mix, the faster the convergence. (3) We explain that the experience replay trick is effective by improving the mixing property of the Markov process. To the best of our knowledge, our analysis is the first to provide finite sample bounds for the GTD algorithms in Markov setting.

We propose a novel adaptive approximation approach for test-time resource-constrained prediction motivated by Mobile, IoT, health, security and other applications, where constraints in the form of computation, communication, latency and feature acquisition costs arise. We learn an adaptive low-cost system by training a gating and prediction model that limits utilization of a high-cost model to hard input instances and gates easy-to-handle input instances to a low-cost model. Our method is based on adaptively approximating the high-cost model in regions where low-cost models suffice for making highly accurate predictions. We pose an empirical loss minimization problem with cost constraints to jointly train gating and prediction models. On a number of benchmark datasets our method outperforms state-of-the-art achieving higher accuracy for the same cost.

Density ratio estimation is a vital tool in both machine learning and statistical community. However, due to the unbounded nature of density ratio, the estimation procedure can be vulnerable to corrupted data points, which often pushes the estimated ratio toward infinity. In this paper, we present a robust estimator which automatically identifies and trims outliers. The proposed estimator has a convex formulation, and the global optimum can be obtained via subgradient descent. We analyze the parameter estimation error of this estimator under high-dimensional settings. Experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the estimator.

We study stochastic convex optimization subjected to linear equality constraints. Traditional Stochastic Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers and its Nesterov's acceleration scheme can only achieve ergodic O(1/\sqrt{K}) convergence rates, where K is the number of iteration. By introducing Variance Reduction (VR) techniques, the convergence rates improve to ergodic O(1/K). In this paper, we propose a new stochastic ADMM which elaborately integrates Nesterov's extrapolation and VR techniques. With Nesterov’s extrapolation, our algorithm can achieve a non-ergodic O(1/K) convergence rate which is optimal for separable linearly constrained non-smooth convex problems, while the convergence rates of VR based ADMM methods are actually tight O(1/\sqrt{K}) in non-ergodic sense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that achieves a truly accelerated, stochastic convergence rate for constrained convex problems. The experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm is significantly faster than the existing state-of-the-art stochastic ADMM methods.

Decentralized (PO)MDPs provide an expressive framework for sequential decision making in a multiagent system. Given their computational complexity, recent research has focused on tractable yet practical subclasses of Dec-POMDPs. We address such a subclass called CDec-POMDP where the collective behavior of a population of agents affects the joint-reward and environment dynamics. Our main contribution is an actor-critic (AC) reinforcement learning method for optimizing CDec-POMDP policies. Vanilla AC has slow convergence for larger problems. To address this, we show how a particular decomposition of the approximate action-value function over agents leads to effective updates, and also derive a new way to train the critic based on local reward signals. Comparisons on a synthetic benchmark and a real world taxi fleet optimization problem show that our new AC approach provides better quality solutions than previous best approaches.

The independence clustering problem is considered in the following formulation: given a set $S$ of random variables, it is required to find the finest partitioning $\{U_1,\dots,U_k\}$ of $S$ into clusters such that the clusters $U_1,\dots,U_k$ are mutually independent. Since mutual independence is the target, pairwise similarity measurements are of no use, and thus traditional clustering algorithms are inapplicable. The distribution of the random variables in $S$ is, in general, unknown, but a sample is available. Thus, the problem is cast in terms of time series. Two forms of sampling are considered: i.i.d.\ and stationary time series, with the main emphasis being on the latter, more general, case. A consistent, computationally tractable algorithm for each of the settings is proposed, and a number of fascinating open directions for further research are outlined.

We introduce deep neural networks for end-to-end differentiable theorem proving that operate on dense vector representations of symbols. These neural networks are recursively constructed by following the backward chaining algorithm as used in Prolog. Specifically, we replace symbolic unification with a differentiable computation on vector representations of symbols using a radial basis function kernel, thereby combining symbolic reasoning with learning subsymbolic vector representations. The resulting neural network can be trained to infer facts from a given incomplete knowledge base using gradient descent. By doing so, it learns to (i) place representations of similar symbols in close proximity in a vector space, (ii) make use of such similarities to prove facts, (iii) induce logical rules, and (iv) it can use provided and induced logical rules for complex multi-hop reasoning. On four benchmark knowledge bases we demonstrate that this architecture outperforms ComplEx, a state-of-the-art neural link prediction model, while at the same time inducing interpretable function-free first-order logic rules.

The problem of selecting the best $k$-element subset from a universe is involved in many applications. While previous studies assumed a noise-free environment or a noisy monotone submodular objective function, this paper considers a more realistic and general situation where the evaluation of a subset is a noisy monotone function (not necessarily submodular), with both multiplicative and additive noises. To understand the impact of the noise, we firstly show the approximation ratio of the greedy algorithm and POSS, two powerful algorithms for noise-free subset selection, in the noisy environments. We then propose to incorporate a noise-aware strategy into POSS, resulting in the new PONSS algorithm. We prove that PONSS can achieve a better approximation ratio under some assumption such as i.i.d. noise distribution. The empirical results on influence maximization and sparse regression problems show the superior performance of PONSS.

Modern neural networks are often augmented with an attention mechanism, which tells the network where to focus within the input. We propose in this paper a new framework for sparse and structured attention, building upon a smoothed max operator. We show that the gradient of this operator defines a mapping from real values to probabilities, suitable as an attention mechanism. Our framework includes softmax and a slight generalization of the recently-proposed sparsemax as special cases. However, we also show how our framework can incorporate modern structured penalties, resulting in more interpretable attention mechanisms, that focus on entire segments or groups of an input. We derive efficient algorithms to compute the forward and backward passes of our attention mechanisms, enabling their use in a neural network trained with backpropagation. To showcase their potential as a drop-in replacement for existing ones, we evaluate our attention mechanisms on three large-scale tasks: textual entailment, machine translation, and sentence summarization. Our attention mechanisms improve interpretability without sacrificing performance; notably, on textual entailment and summarization, we outperform the standard attention mechanisms based on softmax and sparsemax.