Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) has emerged as a key MCMC algorithm for Bayesian learning from large scale datasets. While SGLD with decreasing step sizes converges weakly to the posterior distribution, the algorithm is often used with a constant step size in practice and has demonstrated spectacular successes in machine learning tasks. The current practice is to set the step size inversely proportional to N where N is the number of training samples. As N becomes large, we show that the SGLD algorithm has an invariant probability measure which significantly departs from the target posterior and behaves like as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). This difference is inherently due to the high variance of the stochastic gradients. Several strategies have been suggested to reduce this effect; among them, SGLD Fixed Point (SGLDFP) uses carefully designed control variates to reduce the variance of the stochastic gradients. We show that SGLDFP gives approximate samples from the posterior distribution, with an accuracy comparable to the Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm for a computational cost sublinear in the number of data points. We provide a detailed analysis of the Wasserstein distances between LMC, SGLD, SGLDFP and SGD and explicit expressions of the means and covariance matrices of their invariant distributions. Our findings are supported by limited numerical experiments.

Submodular maximization problems appear in several areas of machine learning and data science, as many useful modelling concepts such as diversity and coverage satisfy this natural diminishing returns property. Because the data defining these functions, as well as the decisions made with the computed solutions, are subject to statistical noise and randomness, it is arguably necessary to go beyond computing a single approximate optimum and quantify its inherent uncertainty. To this end, we define a rich class of probabilistic models associated with constrained submodular maximization problems. These capture log-submodular dependencies of arbitrary order between the variables, but also satisfy hard combinatorial constraints. Namely, the variables are assumed to take on one of — possibly exponentially many — set of states, which form the bases of a matroid. To perform inference in these models we design novel variational inference algorithms, which carefully leverage the combinatorial and probabilistic properties of these objects. In addition to providing completely tractable and well-understood variational approximations, our approach results in the minimization of a convex upper bound on the log-partition function. The bound can be efficiently evaluated using greedy algorithms and optimized using any first-order method. Moreover, for the case of facility location and weighted coverage functions, we prove the first constant factor guarantee in this setting — an efficiently certifiable e/(e-1) approximation of the log-partition function. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several instances.

We present an approach to map utterances in conversation to logical forms, which will be executed on a large-scale knowledge base. To handle enormous ellipsis phenomena in conversation, we introduce dialog memory management to manipulate historical entities, predicates, and logical forms when inferring the logical form of current utterances. Dialog memory management is embodied in a generative model, in which a logical form is interpreted in a top-down manner following a small and flexible grammar. We learn the model from denotations without explicit annotation of logical forms, and evaluate it on a large-scale dataset consisting of 200K dialogs over 12.8M entities. Results verify the benefits of modeling dialog memory, and show that our semantic parsing-based approach outperforms a memory network based encoder-decoder model by a huge margin.

This paper presents the key algorithmic techniques behind CatBoost, a new gradient boosting toolkit. Their combination leads to CatBoost outperforming other publicly available boosting implementations in terms of quality on a variety of datasets. Two critical algorithmic advances introduced in CatBoost are the implementation of ordered boosting, a permutation-driven alternative to the classic algorithm, and an innovative algorithm for processing categorical features. Both techniques were created to fight a prediction shift caused by a special kind of target leakage present in all currently existing implementations of gradient boosting algorithms. In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of this problem and demonstrate that proposed algorithms solve it effectively, leading to excellent empirical results.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model---based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes---based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network---including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

When the linear measurements of an instance of low-rank matrix recovery satisfy a restricted isometry property (RIP) --- i.e. they are approximately norm-preserving --- the problem is known to contain no spurious local minima, so exact recovery is guaranteed. In this paper, we show that moderate RIP is not enough to eliminate spurious local minima, so existing results can only hold for near-perfect RIP. In fact, counterexamples are ubiquitous: every $x$ is the spurious local minimum of a rank-1 instance of matrix recovery that satisfies RIP. One specific counterexample has RIP constant $\delta=1/2$, but causes randomly initialized stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to fail 12\% of the time. SGD is frequently able to avoid and escape spurious local minima, but this empirical result shows that it can occasionally be defeated by their existence. Hence, while exact recovery guarantees will likely require a proof of no spurious local minima, arguments based solely on norm preservation will only be applicable to a narrow set of nearly-isotropic instances.

A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions, such as latent-variable generative models. However sampling (even very approximately) can be #P-hard. Classical results (going back to Bakry and Emery) on sampling focus on log-concave distributions, and show a natural Markov chain called Langevin diffusion mix in polynomial time. However, all log-concave distributions are uni-modal, while in practice it is very common for the distribution of interest to have multiple modes. In this case, Langevin diffusion suffers from torpid mixing. We address this problem by combining Langevin diffusion with simulated tempering. The result is a Markov chain that mixes more rapidly by transitioning between different temperatures of the distribution. We analyze this Markov chain for a mixture of (strongly) log-concave distributions of the same shape. In particular, our technique applies to the canonical multi-modal distribution: a mixture of gaussians (of equal variance). Our algorithm efficiently samples from these distributions given only access to the gradient of the log-pdf. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result that proves fast mixing for multimodal distributions.

We present a new algorithm for stochastic variational inference that targets at models with non-differentiable densities. One of the key challenges in stochastic variational inference is to come up with a low-variance estimator of the gradient of a variational objective. We tackle the challenge by generalizing the reparameterization trick, one of the most effective techniques for addressing the variance issue for differentiable models, so that the trick works for non-differentiable models as well. Our algorithm splits the space of latent variables into regions where the density of the variables is differentiable, and their boundaries where the density may fail to be differentiable. For each differentiable region, the algorithm applies the standard reparameterization trick and estimates the gradient restricted to the region. For each potentially non-differentiable boundary, it uses a form of manifold sampling and computes the direction for variational parameters that, if followed, would increase the boundary's contribution to the variational objective. The sum of all the estimates becomes the gradient estimate of our algorithm. Our estimator enjoys the reduced variance of the reparameterization gradient while remaining unbiased even for non-differentiable models. The experiments with our preliminary implementation confirm the benefit of reduced variance and unbiasedness.

Error bound conditions (EBC) are properties that characterize the growth of an objective function when a point is moved away from the optimal set. They have recently received increasing attention in the field of optimization for developing optimization algorithms with fast convergence. However, the studies of EBC in statistical learning are hitherto still limited. The main contributions of this paper are two-fold. First, we develop fast and intermediate rates of empirical risk minimization (ERM) under EBC for risk minimization with Lipschitz continuous, and smooth convex random functions. Second, we establish fast and intermediate rates of an efficient stochastic approximation (SA) algorithm for risk minimization with Lipschitz continuous random functions, which requires only one pass of $n$ samples and adapts to EBC. For both approaches, the convergence rates span a full spectrum between $\widetilde O(1/\sqrt{n})$ and $\widetilde O(1/n)$ depending on the power constant in EBC, and could be even faster than $O(1/n)$ in special cases for ERM. Moreover, these convergence rates are automatically adaptive without using any knowledge of EBC. Overall, this work not only strengthens the understanding of ERM for statistical learning but also brings new fast stochastic algorithms for solving a broad range of statistical learning problems.

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation, but it is generally only guaranteed to find its stationary points of the log-likelihood objective. The goal of this article is to present theoretical and empirical evidence that over-parameterization can help EM avoid spurious local optima in the log-likelihood. We consider the problem of estimating the mean vectors of a Gaussian mixture model in a scenario where the mixing weights are known. Our study shows that the global behavior of EM, when one uses an over-parameterized model in which the mixing weights are treated as unknown, is better than that when one uses the (correct) model with the mixing weights fixed to the known values. For symmetric Gaussians mixtures with two components, we prove that introducing the (statistically redundant) weight parameters enables EM to find the global maximizer of the log-likelihood starting from almost any initial mean parameters, whereas EM without this over-parameterization may very often fail. For other Gaussian mixtures, we provide empirical evidence that shows similar behavior. Our results corroborate the value of over-parameterization in solving non-convex optimization problems, previously observed in other domains.