We propose a new approach for constructing synthetic pseudo-panel data from cross-sectional data. The pseudo panel and the preferences it intends to describe is constructed at the individual level and is not affected by aggregation bias across cohorts. This is accomplished by creating a high-dimensional probabilistic model representation of the entire data set, which allows sampling from the probabilistic model in such a way that all of the intrinsic correlation properties of the original data are preserved. The key to this is the use of deep learning algorithms based on the Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) framework. From a modelling perspective, the concept of a model-based resampling creates a number of opportunities in that data can be organized and constructed to serve very specific needs of which the forming of heterogeneous pseudo panels represents one. The advantage, in that respect, is the ability to trade a serious aggregation bias (when aggregating into cohorts) for an unsystematic noise disturbance. Moreover, the approach makes it possible to explore high-dimensional sparse preference distributions and their linkage to individual specific characteristics, which is not possible if applying traditional pseudo-panel methods. We use the presented approach to reveal the dynamics of transport preferences for a fixed pseudo panel of individuals based on a large Danish cross-sectional data set covering the period from 2006 to 2016. The model is also utilized to classify individuals into 'slow' and 'fast' movers with respect to the speed at which their preferences change over time. It is found that the prototypical fast mover is a young woman who lives as a single in a large city whereas the typical slow mover is a middle-aged man with high income from a nuclear family who lives in a detached house outside a city.

Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we derive the approximation error of VB in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive density and KL divergence for the linear Gaussian multi-equation regression. Our results indicate that VB approximates the posterior mean perfectly. Factors affecting the magnitude of underestimation in posterior variance and mode are revealed. Importantly, We demonstrate that VB estimates predictive densities accurately.

Non-linear source separation is a challenging open problem with many applications. We extend a recently proposed Adversarial Non-linear ICA (ANICA) model, and introduce Cramer-Wold ICA (CW-ICA). In contrast to ANICA we use a simple, closed--form optimization target instead of a discriminator--based independence measure. Our results show that CW-ICA achieves comparable results to ANICA, while foregoing the need for adversarial training.

Inspired by research in psychology, we introduce a behavioral approach for visual navigation using topological maps. Our goal is to enable a robot to navigate from one location to another, relying only on its visual input and the topological map of the environment. We propose using graph neural networks for localizing the agent in the map, and decompose the action space into primitive behaviors implemented as convolutional or recurrent neural networks. Using the Gibson simulator, we verify that our approach outperforms relevant baselines and is able to navigate in both seen and unseen environments.

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for far-from-distribution test data. The importance of predictions that are robust to this distributional shift is evident for safety-critical applications, such as collision avoidance around pedestrians. Measures of model uncertainty can be used to identify unseen data, but the state-of-the-art extraction methods such as Bayesian neural networks are mostly intractable to compute. This paper uses MC-Dropout and Bootstrapping to give computationally tractable and parallelizable uncertainty estimates. The methods are embedded in a Safe Reinforcement Learning framework to form uncertainty-aware navigation around pedestrians. The result is a collision avoidance policy that knows what it does not know and cautiously avoids pedestrians that exhibit unseen behavior. The policy is demonstrated in simulation to be more robust to novel observations and take safer actions than an uncertainty-unaware baseline.

Collective intelligence is manifested when multiple agents coherently work in observation, interaction, decision-making and action. In this paper, we define and quantify the intelligence level of heterogeneous agents group with the improved Anytime Universal Intelligence Test(AUIT), based on an extension of the existing evaluation of homogeneous agents group. The relationship of intelligence level with agents composition, group size, spatial complexity and testing time is analyzed. The intelligence level of heterogeneous agents groups is compared with the homogeneous ones to analyze the effects of heterogeneity on collective intelligence. Our work will help to understand the essence of collective intelligence more deeply and reveal the effect of various key factors on group intelligence level.

The behavior of self-driving cars must be compatible with an enormous set of conflicting and ambiguous objectives, from law, from ethics, from the local culture, and so on. This paper describes a new way to conveniently define the desired behavior for autonomous agents, which we use on the self-driving cars developed at nuTonomy. We define a "rulebook" as a pre-ordered set of "rules", each akin to a violation metric on the possible outcomes ("realizations"). The rules are partially ordered by priority. The semantics of a rulebook imposes a pre-order on the set of realizations. We study the compositional properties of the rulebooks, and we derive which operations we can allow on the rulebooks to preserve previously-introduced constraints. While we demonstrate the application of these techniques in the self-driving domain, the methods are domain-independent.

YouTube has blocked comments on videos featuring children which "could be at risk of attracting predatory behaviour" following outcry over paedophiles' use of the platform to share content. The video site said it had disabled comments on tens of millions of videos over the past week. It comes after a vlogger alleged he had discovered a "wormhole" into a "soft-core paedophile ring" and several companies pulled their adverts from the site. Matt Watson said he found evidence of paedophiles targeting videos of young girls on the site. He said their comments often included suggestive remarks and pointed out the parts of videos that might show children in compromising positions.

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New machine learning approach could give a big boost to the efficiency of optical networks February 25, 2019, Optical Society of America Credit: CC0 Public Domain New work leveraging machine learning could increase the efficiency of optical telecommunications networks. As our world becomes increasingly interconnected, fiber optic cables offer the ability to transmit more data over longer distances compared to traditional copper wires. Optical Transport Networks (OTNs) have emerged as a solution for packaging data in fiber optic cables, and improvements stand to make them more cost-effective. A group of researchers from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya in Barcelona and the telecom company Huawei have retooled an artificial intelligence technique used for chess and self-driving cars to make OTNs run more efficiently. They will present their research at the upcoming Optical Fiber Conference and Exposition, to be held 3-7 March in San Diego, California, USA.