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Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal selection (CS) uses calibration data to identify test inputs whose unobserved outcomes are likely to satisfy a pre-specified minimal quality requirement, while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Existing methods fix the target FDR level before observing data, which prevents the user from adapting the balance between number of selected test inputs and FDR to downstream needs and constraints based on the available data. For example, in genomics or neuroimaging, researchers often inspect the distribution of test statistics, and decide how aggressively to pursue candidates based on observed evidence strength and available follow-up resources. To address this limitation, we introduce {post-hoc CS} (PH-CS), which generates a path of candidate selection sets, each paired with a data-driven false discovery proportion (FDP) estimate. PH-CS lets the user select any operating point on this path by maximizing a user-specified utility, arbitrarily balancing selection size and FDR. Building on conformal e-variables and the e-Benjamini-Hochberg (e-BH) procedure, PH-CS is proved to provide a finite-sample post-hoc reliability guarantee whereby the ratio between estimated FDP level and true FDP is, on average, upper bounded by $1$, so that the average estimated FDP is, to first order, a valid upper bound on the true FDR. PH-CS is extended to control quality defined in terms of a general risk. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that, unlike CS, PH-CS can consistently satisfy user-imposed utility constraints while producing reliable FDP estimates and maintaining competitive FDR control.


Beijing's robot half-marathon is back for its second year with far less embarassing results

Engadget

Beijing's robot half-marathon is back for its second year with far less embarassing results The fastest time from an Honor robot came in at 50 minutes and 26 seconds. To make up for an incredibly laughable inaugural event, Beijing is running back its humanoid robot half-marathon. Fortunately, the event that pits humanoid robots made by Chinese companies against each other across 13 miles went a lot smoother this year. This year's half-marathon hosted more than 100 competitors, with first place going to Honor, better known for its smartphones, and its red-clad robot named Lightning. Living up to the name, the gold medalist finished the race in 50 minutes and 26 seconds.


Why spring smells like semen and rotting fish

Popular Science

More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. While beautiful, Bradford pear trees also stink. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. The sun is out, the streets are humming, the days are getting longer, and the air smells like like um say, can anyone else smell that? All over America, spring is getting smellier every year, and the culprit is the Bradford pear, a tree that gained popularity in the mid-20 century for its ornamental properties.


New megafauna looked like spiky, 30-pound hamster

Popular Science

It took 120 years to figure out the forgotten fossil belonged to an extinct giant echidna. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. An illustration of what Owen's giant echidna may have looked like. The now extinct megafauna was up to three feet-long. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week.


Cyberpunk platformers, gallivanting geckos and other new indie games worth checking out

Engadget

Plus, Mouse: PI for Hire arrives and Hades 2 hits PS5 and Xbox Series X/S. Welcome to our latest roundup of what's going on in the indie game space. Once again, there are some neat new games for you to check out this weekend. We've got a bunch of updates and announcements for upcoming titles to tell you about too. There have been a bunch of solid indie showcases lately (and highlights from another one to tell you about below).


Iron Woman! I tested a Marvel-style exoskeleton - so, can it really turn me into an athlete?

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, was behind wheel when four friends died in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Kate and William join Charles and Camilla in celebrating British centenarians at Buckingham Palace as Royal Family marks the late Queen's 100th birthday US troops board second tanker as Trump accuses Iran of violating ceasefire'numerous times' - Live updates AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING'You who have come from Europe are not going to return - I will sacrifice you': Chilling rant to tourists by Mexican pyramid gunman before he killed one and wounded seven others Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger Even Cameron Diaz admits she's a dirty mess. I'll get hate for saying it, but we're all thinking the same thing about THAT wrinkled forehead: CAROLINE BULLOCK I tested a Marvel-style exoskeleton - so, can it really turn me into an athlete?


Woman builds EpiPen cannon, because why not?

Popular Science

Technology Engineering Woman builds EpiPen cannon, because why not? It's not the most efficient way to deliver the life-saving medicine, but it's definitely the most entertaining. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The bolt-action device can hold up to four pens. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week.


'Doors to Death' reveal how Romans upgraded a stadium for bloodsport

Popular Science

Science Archaeology'Doors to Death' reveal how Romans upgraded a stadium for bloodsport The ruins in present-day Turkey tell a grisly tale of wild animals eating prisoners. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The ancient city of Perge is located in present-day Turkey. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. The ancient Roman city of Perge--in present-day southern Turkey--was one of the region's most prominent urban centers.


Rare rotting-flesh smelling flower blooming at a Massachusetts college

Popular Science

Are corpse flowers like'Pangy' dangerous? More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. A blooming'Amorphophallus titanum,' also known as corpse flower, in Gunung Leuser National Park, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia in January 2025. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. What's big, rare, and smells like literal death?


Is YOUR phone safe? Facial recognition on 21 popular devices can be easily spoofed with printed photos, tests reveal - so, is yours on the list?

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Nancy Guthrie sheriff's appalling past revealed: Beat handcuffed suspect so badly he needed intensive care, used VILE language about woman and lied in sworn statement Vance grounded at White House as Iran peace talks in turmoil and Trump declares: 'I expect to be bombing' New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, crashed car while speeding and killed four friends... then posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Jordon Hudson extends her control over Bill Belichick's empire with secret move that is set to leave his family and friends furious Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal Humiliating moment runner celebrates winning marathon... only to be pipped at the line by rival in brutal finish In honour of the Queen's (purple!) reign: Kate mirrors late monarch's colourful wardrobe and wears her pearl earrings and necklace How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Grieving mother says she went to LA school every day to complain daughter was being bullied... then tragedy struck when the lead tormentor, 12, hurled metal water bottle at victim's head Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger Facial recognition on 21 popular devices can be easily spoofed with printed photos, tests reveal - so, is yours on the list? Facial recognition might seem like one of the safest ways to keep your phone secure, but experts say your device might be easy prey for hackers.