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Exact Bayesian Inference on Discrete Models via Probability Generating Functions: AProbabilistic Programming Approach

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.



An Empirical Study on Disentanglement of Negative-free Contrastive Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Negative-free contrastive learning methods have attracted a lot of attention with simplicity and impressive performances for large-scale pretraining. However, its disentanglement property remains unexplored. In this paper, we examine negative-free contrastive learning methods to study the disentanglement property empirically. We find that existing disentanglement metrics fail to make meaningful measurements for high-dimensional representation models, so we propose a new disentanglement metric based on Mutual Information between latent representations and data factors.


Amazon just put Elon Musk's Starlink on notice

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