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Score-Repellent Monte Carlo: Toward Efficient Non-Markovian Sampler with Constant Memory in General State Spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

History-dependent sampling can reduce long-run Monte Carlo variance by discouraging redundant revisits, but existing schemes typically encode history through empirical measure on finite state spaces, which is infeasible in high-dimensional discrete configuration spaces or ill-posed in continuous domains. We propose Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes trajectory history by a running average of score evaluations in $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $d$ is the dimension of the score and state representation. This history is converted into a surrogate target through an exponential score tilt, indexed with $ฮฑ$ that represents the strength of repellence in controlling the magnitude of the history-based repulsion. The surrogate family is normalization-free in the standard MCMC sense, yielding a generic wrapper: at each iteration, any base kernel targeting $ฯ€$ can instead be run on the current surrogate $ฯ€_{ฮธ_n}$ while the history is updated online. We analyze the coupled evolution of the history recursion and Monte Carlo estimators using stochastic approximation with controlled Markovian noise, establishing almost sure convergence and a joint central limit theorem. We further identify regimes in which the asymptotic covariance decreases as $ฮฑ$ increases, with scaling $O(1/ฮฑ)$, extending the near-zero-variance effect of finite-state history-dependent samplers to general state spaces with constant memory. Experiments on continuous targets and discrete energy-based models demonstrate improved estimator variance and mode coverage, while retaining $O(d)$ memory usage and modest per-iteration overhead.


Efficient Preference Poisoning Attack on Offline RLHF

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) pipelines such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) train on a pre-collected preference dataset, which makes them vulnerable to preference poisoning attack. We study label flip attacks against log-linear DPO. We first illustrate that flipping one preference label induces a parameter-independent shift in the DPO gradient. Using this key property, we can then convert the targeted poisoning problem into a structured binary sparse approximation problem. To solve this problem, we develop two attack methods: Binary-Aware Lattice Attack (BAL-A) and Binary Matching Pursuit Attack (BMP-A). BAL-A embeds the binary flip selection problem into a binary-aware lattice and applies Lenstra-Lenstra-Lovรกsz reduction and Babai's nearest plane algorithm; we provide sufficient conditions that enforce binary coefficients and recover the minimum-flip objective. BMP-A adapts binary matching pursuit to our non-normalized gradient dictionary and yields coherence-based recovery guarantees and robustness (impossibility) certificates for $K$-flip budgets. Experiments on synthetic dictionaries and the Stanford Human Preferences dataset validate the theory and highlight how dictionary geometry governs attack success.


Distributionally Robust Transfer Learning with Structurally Missing Covariates, with Application to Cross-National Cardiac Arrest Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.


Clustering based on Stochastic Dominance with application for risk averters and risk seekers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stock clustering algorithms play a pivotal role in quantitative finance and the asset management industry, serving as a core mechanism for understanding market complexity and conducting asset preselection. Their intrinsic value lies in enabling investors to identify the true underlying structure of the stock market, thereby categorizing stocks with similar return characteristics or risk profiles into distinct groups. This data-driven market segmentation not only significantly reduces the computational dimensionality involved in portfolio construction but also provides a solid foundation for formulating differentiated investment strategies. A review of existing literature reveals that scholars both domestic and international have achieved fruitful results in stock clustering. Traditional clustering research predominantly employs classic machine learning algorithms: Xiaojun (2019) and Wu et al. (2022) utilized the K-means algorithm for stock partitioning; Huang et al. (2010) and Lu et al. (2020) explored the sectoral structures of the SSE 50 Index and other markets based on Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) and Spectral Clustering; Korzeniewski (2018) further introduced the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm to construct portfolios with enhanced risk resistance. In recent years, with the advancement of deep learning, L ucio and Caiado (2022) and Siregar and Yosia (2024) have attempted to incorporate time-series models (such as TGARCH) or specific market features (e.g., Indonesian stock data) into clustering frameworks. However, despite their respective merits in capturing market trends, these methods share a common limitation: traditional stock clustering approaches predominantly rely exclusively on stock-specific information (e.g., price, volatility, or financial metrics), neglecting the heterogeneity of market participants--namely, the "investors". In reality, investors are typically categorized into three distinct types based on their risk preferences: risk-averse, risk-seeking, and risk-neutral. Divergent risk attitudes inevitably lead to fundamentally different asset selection logic.


An Effective-Rank Audit of Alignment-Induced Activation Shifts: Confound Control, Constructive Calibration, and Limits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We audit alignment-induced shifts in residual-stream activations of three open-weight instruction-tuned LLMs (Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, Gemma-2-9B-it, Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct) using the effective rank of the alignment modification matrix on safety-relevant inputs, rho_eps := rank_eps(M_Ds)/d, which formalizes the single-refusal-direction observation of Arditi et al. (2024) as a continuous quantity. The paper has three contributions. (1) Confound-controlled measurement: a four-variant decomposition (M_naive, M_template, M_aligned, M_DiD) separates chat-template formatting, alignment-stage shift, and the refusal-mediating direction, and recovers the Arditi refusal direction on M_DiD at |cos| in {0.77, 0.86, 0.50} (Llama/Gemma/Qwen); chat-template-controlled rho_eps is {0.0029, 0.0048, 0.0044}, and the centered SVD residual is 4-7x larger. (2) Constructive calibration on a 3-layer MLP across rho_eps in {0.008, 0.17, 0.33, 0.40} exhibits a sweet-spot vs. brittle distinction: mild rank-maximization (lambda=5) buys ablation robustness, while strong regularization at the same nominal rho_eps (lambda=50) does not. rho_eps is a diagnostic for fragility, not a target whose mechanical inflation buys robustness. (3) Limits of rank-based diagnostics: (a) not safety-specific (LRH baseline is 2-3x the safety value); (b) SVD principal ordering does not match causal ordering (Llama u_2 inert despite ranking second; cumulative ablation non-monotone at k=5); (c) the spectral-gap hypothesis required to upgrade the O(rho_eps * d) achievability bound to a matching Mirsky-route lower bound fails empirically (1/90 Llama layer-reference pairs, 0/36 MLP combinations) and structurally (kappa_lb <= 2/(eps * r)). The matching lower bound remains an open problem.


Feature Learning in Wide Neural Networks under $ฮผ$P: Identifiability and Sparse-Dictionary Decomposition of the Mean-Field Limit

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We establish four structural results for feature learning in wide two-layer neural networks under the Maximal Update Parametrization ($ฮผ$P). First, we prove global existence and uniqueness of the mean-field limit of noisy gradient descent under $ฮผ$P, identifying the maximal admissible weight $w^*$ on the moment sequence of the initialization as the reciprocal parameter-moment-growth boundary, and hence the largest weighted moment class propagated by the flow. The finite-particle approximation has uniform-in-time squared-Wasserstein rate $O(N^{-1})$. Second, we characterize identifiability of the mean-field limit: two admissible parameter measures induce the same network function in $L^2$ exactly when their active components agree modulo the finite-rank realization symmetry of the architecture. The orbit depth $D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}$ is separated from the moment-variety depth $D^*_{\mathrm{var}}$. Third, under the Barron-Hermite target condition the active support of the long-time limit measure admits a sparse-dictionary decomposition: it is supported on at most $S^*$ atoms modulo finite-rank realization symmetry, with $S^*$ bounded by an explicit coefficient-threshold number. Fourth, we derive the total feature-learning-error decomposition into statistical, optimization, propagation-of-chaos, and sparse-residual components, with a target-dependent Hermite/Barron tail replacing any initialization-only residual. The four results are tied together by an architectural identity: the triple $(w^*, D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}, S^*)$ -- the maximal admissible weight, the orbit identifiability depth, and the sparse-dictionary depth at which the target is realizable -- is the natural learning cell of the architecture-data pair $(ฯƒ, ฯ)$. The proofs are self-contained except for standard results from $ฮผ$P and mean-field Langevin theory.


How Neural Reward Models Learn Features for Policy Optimization: A Single-Index Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reward modeling is not only a prediction problem: in KL-regularized policy optimization, the learned reward is exponentiated to define the deployed policy, so downstream value depends on errors in reward-tilted regions. We study this feedback in a Gaussian single-index model with $r^*(x) = ฯƒ^*(\langle ฮธ^*, x\rangle)$ and $x \sim N(0, I_d)$. We analyze a two-stage neural reward model that first learns the hidden direction $ฮธ^*$ from reward-weighted samples and then fits the readout layer by weighted ridge regression. Exponential reward weighting changes the Hermite signal available to the first layer; for any feature-learning temperature $ฮฒ_1$ above a dimension-free $O(1)$ threshold, a constant fraction of neurons recover the hidden direction, with weak-recovery complexity governed by the generative exponent. After feature recovery, we derive tilted-policy value-gap bounds for an idealized label-weighted fit with weights $e^{y/ฮฒ_2}$ and a more practical surrogate-weighted fit with weights $e^{r_{a_0}(x)/ฮฒ_2}$. Keeping the $ฮฒ_2$-dependence explicit yields an admissible set of deployment temperatures, balancing the gain from lowering $ฮฒ_2$ against the learning cost amplified by exponential weighting; in the surrogate-weighted case, proxy-dependent factors shrink this admissible set.


Quaternion Self-Attention with Shared Scores

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quaternion neural networks are parameter-efficient and model multidimensional dependencies by representing four related features as a single entity. However, existing quaternion self-attention computes component-wise scores and applies independent softmax operations to each component, which increases the computational cost and allows attention distributions to diverge across components. We propose a shared-score quaternion self-attention mechanism that computes a single real-valued score using the quaternion inner product and applies a shared attention distribution across all components. This reduces score-computation multiplications by 75% and the number of softmax operations from four to one. We prove that, when queries and keys are produced by quaternion linear projections that induce component pre-mixing, the component-wise and shared scores lie in the same interaction subspace, indicating that independent component-wise attention primarily re-parameterizes the same interactions rather than expanding the feature interaction space. In speech enhancement, our method reduces inference time by up to 44.3% on a GPU and 58.1% on a CPU while maintaining quality, with consistent trends across vision and natural language processing.


Inference-Time Alignment of Diffusion Models via Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study inference-time alignment for diffusion-based generative models, aiming to steer a base model toward high-reward outputs without updating its weights. Recent Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based steering methods approximate reward-tilted target distributions in a principled way, but their proposals remain largely tied to the base sampler. Since reward information is mainly used after propagation through particle reweighting and resampling, these methods can require large particle budgets and suffer from weight degeneracy and high-variance estimates. One way to reduce variance and improve particle efficiency is to iteratively learn twisting functions that provide look-ahead guidance, as in twisted SMC. However, existing learnable twisting methods are developed mainly for classical sequential inference and can be unstable when applied to diffusion-based alignment with high-dimensional state spaces and terminal, noisy, or black-box rewards. We propose Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC), a trust-region framework for learning twisting functions in SMC-based inference-time alignment. Each iteration computes an exact KL-constrained update in path space, which admits a closed-form solution by tempered importance reweighting, and projects this target back to the parameterized twisted family by weighted maximum likelihood. Theoretically, we formalize the value-function interpretation of the optimal twisting function and show that it yields a zero-variance sampler. We prove that the trust-region update follows an escort path toward the target distribution, that the weighted maximum-likelihood update is a forward-KL projection, and that the path reduces residual importance-weight variance. Empirically, TRI-TSMC improves primary alignment objectives on discrete diffusion text generation and text-to-image generation under matched inference-time budgets.


Multi-Objective Learning for Diffusion Models: A Statistical Theory under Semi-Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diffusion models are increasingly used as powerful conditional generators, yet real deployments often involve multiple target distributions arising from different tasks, e.g., diverse prompt domains in text-to-image generation, or multiple environments in robotics with diffusion policies. This naturally leads to a multi-objective learning (MOL) problem. A key challenge is that achieving good Pareto trade-offs can require a generalist model class with substantially larger capacity than what suffices for solving any individual task, thereby increasing statistical cost since sample complexity typically scales with the model complexity. To reconcile this, we develop a principled MOL framework for diffusion models with limited data: a semi-supervised regime where paired (labeled) samples are scarce, but (unlabeled) condition data are abundant. We propose a two-stage training procedure that first fits lightweight specialist models from limited paired data, and then distills them into a generalist model by generating pseudo-samples. We establish generalization bounds showing that the required number of paired samples only depends on the complexity of the specialist model classes. We further extend the theory to diffusion policies for sequential decision making to account for distribution shift in on-policy rollouts. Extensive experiments on robotic control and image restoration tasks are conducted to verify our theoretical results.