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Chinese fishing 'militia' formations signal rising gray-zone pressure on Taiwan

FOX News

China's People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia deployed thousands of fishing vessels in coordinated formations that could disrupt global shipping lanes, analysts warn.


China's OpenClaw Boom Is a Gold Rush for AI Companies

WIRED

China's OpenClaw Boom Is a Gold Rush for AI Companies Hype around the open source agent is driving people to rent cloud servers and buy AI subscriptions just to try it, creating a windfall for tech companies. George Zhang thought OpenClaw could make him rich, even though he didn't really understand how the viral AI agent software worked. But he saw a video of a Chinese social media influencer demonstrating how it could be deployed to manage stock portfolios and make investment decisions autonomously. Zhang, who works in cross-border ecommerce in the Chinese city of Xiamen, was intrigued enough that he decided to try installing OpenClaw in late February. Zhang is one of the many people in China who got swept up in the craze over OpenClaw recently.


Stochastic Discount Factors with Cross-Asset Spillovers

Avramov, Doron, He, Xin

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The central objective of empirical asset pricing is to identify firm-level signals that explain the cross-section of expected stock returns--whether through exposure to risk factors or persistent mispricing. The dominant paradigm, grounded in the assumption of self-predictability, asserts that a firm's own characteristics forecast its own returns (see, e.g., Cochrane (2011); Harvey et al. (2016)). Complementing this view is a growing literature on cross-predictability--the idea that the characteristics or returns of one asset can help forecast the returns of others (see, e.g., Lo and MacKinlay (1990); Hou (2007); Cohen and Frazzini (2008); Cohen and Lou (2012); Huang et al. (2021, 2022)). A key mechanism underpinning this phenomenon is the presence of lead-lag effects, whereby price movements or information from one firm precede and predict those of related firms. Such effects can stem from staggered information diffusion, peer influence within industries, supply chain linkages, or correlated trading by institutional investors that induces price pressure across related assets. Despite recent methodological advances in modeling cross-stock predictability, several foundational questions remain unresolved. Chief among them is how a mean-variance investor can analytically integrate multiple predictive signals when returns are interconnected across assets. Equally crucial is developing a framework that jointly captures both the relevance of individual signals and the structure of return spillovers--enhancing portfolio performance while preserving interpretability .


Semi-Supervised Learning on Graphs using Graph Neural Networks

Chen, Juntong, Donnat, Claire, Klopp, Olga, Schmidt-Hieber, Johannes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph neural networks (GNNs) work remarkably well in semi-supervised node regression, yet a rigorous theory explaining when and why they succeed remains lacking. To address this gap, we study an aggregate-and-readout model that encompasses several common message passing architectures: node features are first propagated over the graph then mapped to responses via a nonlinear function. For least-squares estimation over GNNs with linear graph convolutions and a deep ReLU readout, we prove a sharp non-asymptotic risk bound that separates approximation, stochastic, and optimization errors. The bound makes explicit how performance scales with the fraction of labeled nodes and graph-induced dependence. Approximation guarantees are further derived for graph-smoothing followed by smooth nonlinear readouts, yielding convergence rates that recover classical nonparametric behavior under full supervision while characterizing performance when labels are scarce. Numerical experiments validate our theory, providing a systematic framework for understanding GNN performance and limitations.