The domain of explainable AI is of interest in all Machine Learning fields, and it is all the more important in clustering, an unsupervised task whose result must be validated by a domain expert. We aim at finding a clustering that has high quality in terms of classic clustering criteria and that is explainable, and we argue that these two dimensions must be considered when building the clustering. We consider that a good global explanation of a clustering should give the characteristics of each cluster taking into account their abilities to describe its objects (coverage) while distinguishing it from the other clusters (discrimination). Furthermore, we aim at leveraging expert knowledge, at different levels, on the structure of the expected clustering or on its explanations. In our framework an explanation of a cluster is a set of patterns, and we propose a novel interpretable constrained clustering method called ECS for declarative clustering with Explainabilty-driven Cluster Selection that integrates structural or domain expert knowledge expressed by means of constraints. It is based on the notion of coverage and discrimination that are formalized at different levels (cluster / clustering), each allowing for exceptions through parameterized thresholds. Our method relies on four steps: generation of a set of partitions, computation of frequent patterns for each cluster, pruning clusters that violates some constraints, and selection of clusters and associated patterns to build an interpretable clustering. This last step is combinatorial and we have developed a Constraint-Programming (CP) model to solve it. The method can integrate prior knowledge in the form of user constraints, both before or in the CP model.

The observation of the advancing and retreating pattern of polar sea ice cover stands as a vital indicator of global warming. This research aims to develop a robust, effective, and scalable system for classifying polar sea ice as thick/snow-covered, young/thin, or open water using Sentinel-2 (S2) images. Since the S2 satellite is actively capturing high-resolution imagery over the earth's surface, there are lots of images that need to be classified. One major obstacle is the absence of labeled S2 training data (images) to act as the ground truth. We demonstrate a scalable and accurate method for segmenting and automatically labeling S2 images using carefully determined color thresholds. We employ a parallel workflow using PySpark to scale and achieve 9-fold data loading and 16-fold map-reduce speedup on auto-labeling S2 images based on thin cloud and shadow-filtered color-based segmentation to generate label data. The auto-labeled data generated from this process are then employed to train a U-Net machine learning model, resulting in good classification accuracy. As training the U-Net classification model is computationally heavy and time-consuming, we distribute the U-Net model training to scale it over 8 GPUs using the Horovod framework over a DGX cluster with a 7.21x speedup without affecting the accuracy of the model. Using the Antarctic's Ross Sea region as an example, the U-Net model trained on auto-labeled data achieves a classification accuracy of 98.97% for auto-labeled training datasets when the thin clouds and shadows from the S2 images are filtered out.

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty of proposed projections. In this paper, we model the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is of major importance to climate in Europe and the US East Coast by transporting warm water to these regions, and has the potential for abrupt collapse. We can generate arbitrarily extreme climate scenarios through arbitrary time scales which we then predict using neural networks. Our analysis shows that the AMOC is predictable using neural networks under a diverse set of climate scenarios. Further experiments reveal that MLPs and Deep Ensembles can learn the physics of the AMOC instead of imitating its progression through autocorrelation. With quantified uncertainty, an intriguing pattern of "spikes" before critical points of collapse in the AMOC casts doubt on previous analyses that predicted an AMOC collapse within this century. Our results show that Bayesian Neural Networks perform poorly compared to more dense architectures and care should be taken when applying neural networks to nonstationary scenarios such as climate projections. Further, our results highlight that big NN models might have difficulty in modeling global Earth System dynamics accurately and be successfully applied in nonstationary climate scenarios due to the physics being challenging for neural networks to capture.

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

The dipteran flight mechanism of the insects is commonly used to design the nonlinear flight robot system. However, the dynamic response of the click mechanism of the nonlinear robot system with multiple stability still unclear. In this paper, a novel dipteran robot model with click mechanism proposed based on the multiple stability of snap-through buckling. The motion of equation of the nonlinear flight robot system is obtained by using the Euler-Lagrange equation. The nonlinear potential energy, the elastic force, equilibrium bifurcation, as well as equilibrium stability are investigated to show the multiple stability characteristics. The transient sets of bifurcation and persistent set of regions in the system parameter plane and the corresponding phase portraits are obtained with multiple stability of single and double well behaviors. Then, the periodic free vibration response are defined by the analytical solution of three kinds of elliptical functions, as well as the amplitude frequency responses are investigated by numerical integration. Based on the topological equivalent method, the chaotic thresholds of the homo-clinic orbits for the chaotic vibration of harmonic forced robot system are derived to show the chaotic parametric condition. Finally, the prototype of nonlinear flapping robot is manufactured and the experimental system is setup. The nonlinear static moment of force curves, periodic response and dynamic flight vibration of dipteran robot system are carried out. It is shown that the test results are agree well with the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. Those result have the potential application for the structure design of the efficient flight robot.

The modeling and forecasting of sea ice conditions in the Arctic region are important tasks for ship routing, offshore oil production, and environmental monitoring. We propose the adaptive surrogate modeling approach named LANE-SI (Lightweight Automated Neural Ensembling for Sea Ice) that uses ensemble of relatively simple deep learning models with different loss functions for forecasting of spatial distribution for sea ice concentration in the specified water area. Experimental studies confirm the quality of a long-term forecast based on a deep learning model fitted to the specific water area is comparable to resource-intensive physical modeling, and for some periods of the year, it is superior. We achieved a 20% improvement against the state-of-the-art physics-based forecast system SEAS5 for the Kara Sea.

We introduce HallusionBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed for the evaluation of image-context reasoning. This benchmark presents significant challenges to advanced large visual-language models (LVLMs), such as GPT-4V(Vision) and LLaVA-1.5, by emphasizing nuanced understanding and interpretation of visual data. The benchmark comprises 346 images paired with 1129 questions, all meticulously crafted by human experts. We introduce a novel structure for these visual questions designed to establish control groups. This structure enables us to conduct a quantitative analysis of the models' response tendencies, logical consistency, and various failure modes. In our evaluation on HallusionBench, we benchmarked 13 different models, highlighting a 31.42% question-pair accuracy achieved by the state-of-the-art GPT-4V. Notably, all other evaluated models achieve accuracy below 16%. Moreover, our analysis not only highlights the observed failure modes, including language hallucination and visual illusion, but also deepens an understanding of these pitfalls. Our comprehensive case studies within HallusionBench shed light on the challenges of hallucination and illusion in LVLMs. Based on these insights, we suggest potential pathways for their future improvement. The benchmark and codebase can be accessed at https://github.com/tianyi-lab/HallusionBench.

Assessing factuality of text generated by large language models (LLMs) is an emerging yet crucial research area, aimed at alerting users to potential errors and guiding the development of more reliable LLMs. Nonetheless, the evaluators assessing factuality necessitate suitable evaluation themselves to gauge progress and foster advancements. This direction remains under-explored, resulting in substantial impediments to the progress of factuality evaluators. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a benchmark for Factuality Evaluation of large Language Models, referred to as felm. In this benchmark, we collect responses generated from LLMs and annotate factuality labels in a fine-grained manner. Contrary to previous studies that primarily concentrate on the factuality of world knowledge (e.g.~information from Wikipedia), felm focuses on factuality across diverse domains, spanning from world knowledge to math and reasoning. Our annotation is based on text segments, which can help pinpoint specific factual errors. The factuality annotations are further supplemented by predefined error types and reference links that either support or contradict the statement. In our experiments, we investigate the performance of several LLM-based factuality evaluators on felm, including both vanilla LLMs and those augmented with retrieval mechanisms and chain-of-thought processes. Our findings reveal that while retrieval aids factuality evaluation, current LLMs are far from satisfactory to faithfully detect factual errors.

Forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice drift (SID) in the Arctic Ocean is of great significance as the Arctic environment has been changed by the recent warming climate. Given that physical sea ice models require high computational costs with complex parameterization, deep learning techniques can effectively replace the physical model and improve the performance of sea ice prediction. This study proposes a novel multi-task fully conventional network architecture named hierarchical information-sharing U-net (HIS-Unet) to predict daily SIC and SID. Instead of learning SIC and SID separately at each branch, we allow the SIC and SID layers to share their information and assist each other's prediction through the weighting attention modules (WAMs). Consequently, our HIS-Unet outperforms other statistical approaches, sea ice physical models, and neural networks without such information-sharing units. The improvement of HIS-Unet is obvious both for SIC and SID prediction when and where sea ice conditions change seasonally, which implies that the information sharing through WAMs allows the model to learn the sudden changes of SIC and SID. The weight values of the WAMs imply that SIC information plays a more critical role in SID prediction, compared to that of SID information in SIC prediction, and information sharing is more active in sea ice edges (seasonal sea ice) than in the central Arctic (multi-year sea ice).

Misinformation poses a critical societal challenge, and current approaches have yet to produce an effective solution. We propose focusing on generalization, uncertainty, and how to leverage recent large language models, in order to create more practical tools to evaluate information veracity in contexts where perfect classification is impossible. We first demonstrate that GPT-4 can outperform prior methods in multiple settings and languages. Next, we explore generalization, revealing that GPT-4 and RoBERTa-large exhibit differences in failure modes. Third, we propose techniques to handle uncertainty that can detect impossible examples and strongly improve outcomes. We also discuss results on other language models, temperature, prompting, versioning, explainability, and web retrieval, each one providing practical insights and directions for future research. Finally, we publish the LIAR-New dataset with novel paired English and French misinformation data and Possibility labels that indicate if there is sufficient context for veracity evaluation. Overall, this research lays the groundwork for future tools that can drive real-world progress to combat misinformation.