Multi-year-to-decadal climate prediction is a key tool in understanding the range of potential regional and global climate futures. Here, we present a framework that combines machine learning and analog forecasting for predictions on these timescales. A neural network is used to learn a mask, specific to a region and lead time, with global weights based on relative importance as precursors to the evolution of that prediction target. A library of mask-weighted model states, or potential analogs, are then compared to a single mask-weighted observational state. The known future of the best matching potential analogs serve as the prediction for the future of the observational state. We match and predict 2-meter temperature using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset for observations, and a set of CMIP6 models as the analog library. We find improved performance over traditional analog methods and initialized decadal predictions.

ICESat-2 (IS2) by NASA is an Earth-observing satellite that measures high-resolution surface elevation. The IS2's ATL07 and ATL10 sea ice elevation and freeboard products of 10m-200m segments which aggregated 150 signal photons from the raw ATL03 (geolocated photon) data. These aggregated products can potentially overestimate local sea surface height, thus underestimating the calculations of freeboard (sea ice height above sea surface). To achieve a higher resolution of sea surface height and freeboard information, in this work we utilize a 2m window to resample the ATL03 data. Then, we classify these 2m segments into thick sea ice, thin ice, and open water using deep learning methods (Long short-term memory and Multi-layer perceptron models). To obtain labeled training data for our deep learning models, we use segmented Sentinel-2 (S2) multi-spectral imagery overlapping with IS2 tracks in space and time to auto-label IS2 data, followed by some manual corrections in the regions of transition between different ice/water types or cloudy regions. We employ a parallel workflow for this auto-labeling using PySpark to scale, and we achieve 9-fold data loading and 16.25-fold map-reduce speedup. To train our models, we employ a Horovod-based distributed deep-learning workflow on a DGX A100 8 GPU cluster, achieving a 7.25-fold speedup. Next, we calculate the local sea surface heights based on the open water segments. Finally, we scale the freeboard calculation using the derived local sea level and achieve 8.54-fold data loading and 15.7-fold map-reduce speedup. Compared with the ATL07 (local sea level) and ATL10 (freeboard) data products, our results show higher resolutions and accuracy (96.56%).

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

The rapid growth of earth observation systems calls for a scalable approach to interpolate remote-sensing observations. These methods in principle, should acquire more information about the observed field as data grows. Gaussian processes (GPs) are candidate model choices for interpolation. However, due to their poor scalability, they usually rely on inducing points for inference, which restricts their expressivity. Moreover, commonly imposed assumptions such as stationarity prevents them from capturing complex patterns in the data. While deep GPs can overcome this issue, training and making inference with them are difficult, again requiring crude approximations via inducing points. In this work, we instead approach the problem through Bayesian deep learning, where spatiotemporal fields are represented by deep neural networks, whose layers share the inductive bias of stationary GPs on the plane/sphere via random feature expansions. This allows one to (1) capture high frequency patterns in the data, and (2) use mini-batched gradient descent for large scale training. The advent of earth observation systems have made it possible to monitor virtually all of earth's atmosphere and the ocean at unprecedented scales. This development has been pivotal to the understanding of anthropogenic impact on the environment, including global warming and rise in sea level. Hence, it is crucial that we are able to process the voluminous data effectively and extract maximal information from it to make better informed decisions in our path to achieving sustainable development goals. However, observations from satellite products are inherently sparse in space-time, requiring methods to effectively fill in the gap at unobserved locations (Le Traon et al., 1998). This typically relies on data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 2003), which requires one to have access to a physical model that describes the evolution of the field.

Cloud cover plays a critical role in weather prediction and impacts several sectors, including agriculture, solar power generation, and aviation. Despite advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecasting total cloud cover remains challenging due to the small-scale nature of cloud formation processes. In this study, we introduce CloudCast, a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the U-Net architecture, designed to predict total cloud cover (TCC) up to five hours ahead. Trained on five years of satellite data, CloudCast significantly outperforms traditional NWP models and optical flow methods. Compared to a reference NWP model, CloudCast achieves a 24% lower mean absolute error and reduces multi-category prediction errors by 46%. The model demonstrates strong performance, particularly in capturing the large-scale structure of cloud cover in the first few forecast hours, though later predictions are subject to blurring and underestimation of cloud formation. An ablation study identified the optimal input features and loss functions, with MAE-based models performing the best. CloudCast has been integrated into the Finnish Meteorological Institute's operational nowcasting system, where it improves cloud cover forecasts used by public and private sector clients. While CloudCast is limited by a relatively short skillful lead time of about three hours, future work aims to extend this through more complex network architectures and higher-resolution data. CloudCast code is available at https://github.com/fmidev/cloudcast.

Fact-checking pipelines increasingly adopt the Decompose-Then-Verify paradigm, where texts are broken down into smaller claims for individual verification and subsequently combined for a veracity decision. While decomposition is widely-adopted in such pipelines, its effects on final fact-checking performance remain underexplored. Some studies have reported improvements from decompostition, while others have observed performance declines, indicating its inconsistent impact. To date, no comprehensive analysis has been conducted to understand this variability. To address this gap, we present an in-depth analysis that explicitly examines the impact of decomposition on downstream verification performance. Through error case inspection and experiments, we introduce a categorization of decomposition errors and reveal a trade-off between accuracy gains and the noise introduced through decomposition. Our analysis provides new insights into understanding current system's instability and offers guidance for future studies toward improving claim decomposition in fact-checking pipelines.

The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel data-driven approach for sea ice condition forecasting in the Gulf of Ob, leveraging sequences of radar images from Sentinel-1, weather observations, and GLORYS forecasts. Our approach integrates advanced video prediction models, originally developed for vision tasks, with domain-specific data preprocessing and augmentation techniques tailored to the unique challenges of Arctic sea ice dynamics. Central to our methodology is the use of uncertainty quantification to assess the reliability of predictions, ensuring robust decision-making in safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we propose a confidence-based model mixture mechanism that enhances forecast accuracy and model robustness, crucial for reliable operations in volatile Arctic environments. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements over baseline approaches, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification and specialized data handling for effective and safe operations and reliable forecasting.

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent environmental pollutants with known toxicity and bioaccumulation issues. Their widespread industrial use and resistance to degradation have led to global environmental contamination and significant health concerns. While a minority of PFAS have been extensively studied, the toxicity of many PFAS remains poorly understood due to limited direct toxicological data. This study advances the predictive modeling of PFAS toxicity by combining semi-supervised graph convolutional networks (GCNs) with molecular descriptors and fingerprints. We propose a novel approach to enhance the prediction of PFAS binding affinities by isolating molecular fingerprints to construct graphs where then descriptors are set as the node features. This approach specifically captures the structural, physicochemical, and topological features of PFAS without overfitting due to an abundance of features. Unsupervised clustering then identifies representative compounds for detailed binding studies. Our results provide a more accurate ability to estimate PFAS hepatotoxicity to provide guidance in chemical discovery of new PFAS and the development of new safety regulations.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models with data assimilation remains limited partially because long-term sequential data assimilation cycles are required to evaluate data assimilation systems. This study proposes using ensemble data assimilation for diagnosing AI-based weather prediction models, and marked the first successful implementation of ensemble Kalman filter with AI-based weather prediction models. Our experiments with an AI-based model ClimaX demonstrated that the ensemble data assimilation cycled stably for the AI-based weather prediction model using covariance inflation and localization techniques within the ensemble Kalman filter. While ClimaX showed some limitations in capturing flow-dependent error covariance compared to dynamical models, the AI-based ensemble forecasts provided reasonable and beneficial error covariance in sparsely observed regions. In addition, ensemble data assimilation revealed that error growth based on ensemble ClimaX predictions was weaker than that of dynamical NWP models, leading to higher inflation factors. A series of experiments demonstrated that ensemble data assimilation can be used to diagnose properties of AI weather prediction models such as physical consistency and accurate error growth representation.