Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are extremely challenging, due to the chaotic nature of temperature variations. Moreover, the usefulness of existing simulation-based and machine learning-based methods for this task is limited because initial simulation or prediction errors increase exponentially over time. To address this challenging task, we devise a novel prediction method involving an information tracking mechanism that aims to track and adapt to changes in temperature dynamics during the prediction phase by providing probabilistic feedback on the prediction error of the next step based on the current prediction. We integrate this information tracking mechanism, which can be considered as a model calibrator, into the objective function of our method to obtain the corrections needed to avoid error accumulation. Our results show the ability of our method to accurately predict global land-surface temperatures over a decadal range. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are meaningful in a real-world context: the temperatures predicted using our method are consistent with and can be used to explain the well-known teleconnections within and between different continents.

Extreme cold is merciless on machinery. Rubber seals stiffen and crack. The problems pile up as the temperature falls. Metal becomes brittle, and wires contract. Batteries stop working, adhesives stop sticking and LCD screens go black as their liquid crystal freezes solid.

The widespread usage of computer-based assessments and individualized learning platforms has resulted in an increased demand for the rapid production of high-quality items. Automated item generation (AIG), the process of using item models to generate new items with the help of computer technology, was proposed to reduce reliance on human subject experts at each step of the process. AIG has been used in test development for some time. Still, the use of machine learning algorithms has introduced the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the process greatly. The approach presented in this paper utilizes OpenAI's latest transformer-based language model, GPT-3, to generate reading passages. Existing reading passages were used in carefully engineered prompts to ensure the AI-generated text has similar content and structure to a fourth-grade reading passage. For each prompt, we generated multiple passages, the final passage was selected according to the Lexile score agreement with the original passage. In the final round, the selected passage went through a simple revision by a human editor to ensure the text was free of any grammatical and factual errors. All AI-generated passages, along with original passages were evaluated by human judges according to their coherence, appropriateness to fourth graders, and readability.

Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, lab, modeling, and analysis activities, called ModEx. The BER's `Model-Experimentation', ModEx, is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process-based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the `AI Architectures and Co-design' session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Co-design session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including: (1) DOE HPC Systems, (2) Cloud HPC Systems, and (3) Edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this co-design area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as: (1) reimagining co-design, (2) data acquisition to distribution, (3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with earth system modeling and simulation, and (4) AI-enabled sensor integration into earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper.

A Bayes network based classifier for distinguishing terrestrial rocks from meteorites is implemented onboard the Nomad robot. Equipped with a camera, spectrometer and eddy current sensor, this robot searched the ice sheets of Antarctica and autonomously made the first robotic identification of a meteorite, in January 2000 at the Elephant Moraine. This paper discusses rock classification from a robotic platform, and describes the system onboard Nomad.

The increasing prevalence of network data in a vast variety of fields and the need to extract useful information out of them have spurred fast developments in related models and algorithms. Among the various learning tasks with network data, community detection, the discovery of node clusters or "communities," has arguably received the most attention in the scientific community. In many real-world applications, the network data often come with additional information in the form of node or edge covariates that should ideally be leveraged for inference. In this paper, we add to a limited literature on community detection for networks with covariates by proposing a Bayesian stochastic block model with a covariate-dependent random partition prior. Under our prior, the covariates are explicitly expressed in specifying the prior distribution on the cluster membership. Our model has the flexibility of modeling uncertainties of all the parameter estimates including the community membership. Importantly, and unlike the majority of existing methods, our model has the ability to learn the number of the communities via posterior inference without having to assume it to be known. Our model can be applied to community detection in both dense and sparse networks, with both categorical and continuous covariates, and our MCMC algorithm is very efficient with good mixing properties. We demonstrate the superior performance of our model over existing models in a comprehensive simulation study and an application to two real datasets.

Well-established cognitive models coming from anthropology have shown that, due to the cognitive constraints that limit our "bandwidth" for social interactions, humans organize their social relations according to a regular structure. In this work, we postulate that similar regularities can be found in other cognitive processes, such as those involving language production. In order to investigate this claim, we analyse a dataset containing tweets of a heterogeneous group of Twitter users (regular users and professional writers). Leveraging a methodology similar to the one used to uncover the well-established social cognitive constraints, we find regularities at both the structural and semantic level. At the former, we find that a concentric layered structure (which we call ego network of words, in analogy to the ego network of social relationships) very well captures how individuals organise the words they use. The size of the layers in this structure regularly grows (approximately 2-3 times with respect to the previous one) when moving outwards, and the two penultimate external layers consistently account for approximately 60% and 30% of the used words, irrespective of the number of the total number of layers of the user. For the semantic analysis, each ring of each ego network is described by a semantic profile, which captures the topics associated with the words in the ring. We find that ring #1 has a special role in the model. It is semantically the most dissimilar and the most diverse among the rings. We also show that the topics that are important in the innermost ring also have the characteristic of being predominant in each of the other rings, as well as in the entire ego network. In this respect, ring #1 can be seen as the semantic fingerprint of the ego network of words.

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts help with managing the marine ecosystem and the aquaculture impacted by anthropogenic climate change. Numerical dynamical models are resource intensive for SST forecasts; machine learning (ML) models could reduce high computational requirements and have been in the focus of the research community recently. ML models normally require a large amount of data for training. Environmental data are collected on regularly-spaced grids, so early work mainly used grid-based deep learning (DL) for prediction. However, both grid data and the corresponding DL approaches have inherent problems. As geometric DL has emerged, graphs as a more generalized data structure and graph neural networks (GNNs) have been introduced to the spatiotemporal domains. In this work, we preliminarily explored graph re-sampling and GNNs for global SST forecasts, and GNNs show better one month ahead SST prediction than the persistence model in most oceans in terms of root mean square errors.

The task of dimensionality reduction and visualization of high-dimensional datasets remains a challenging problem since long. Modern high-throughput technologies produce newer high-dimensional datasets having multiple views with relatively new data types. Visualization of these datasets require proper methodology that can uncover hidden patterns in the data without affecting the local and global structures within the data. To this end, however, very few such methodology exist, which can realise this task. In this work, we have introduced a novel unsupervised deep neural network model, called NeuroDAVIS, for data visualization. NeuroDAVIS is capable of extracting important features from the data, without assuming any data distribution, and visualize effectively in lower dimension. It has been shown theoritically that neighbourhood relationship of the data in high dimension remains preserved in lower dimension. The performance of NeuroDAVIS has been evaluated on a wide variety of synthetic and real high-dimensional datasets including numeric, textual, image and biological data. NeuroDAVIS has been highly competitive against both t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) with respect to visualization quality, and preservation of data size, shape, and both local and global structure. It has outperformed Fast interpolation-based t-SNE (Fit-SNE), a variant of t-SNE, for most of the high-dimensional datasets as well. For the biological datasets, besides t-SNE, UMAP and Fit-SNE, NeuroDAVIS has also performed well compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms, like Potential of Heat-diffusion for Affinity-based Trajectory Embedding (PHATE) and the siamese neural network-based method, called IVIS. Downstream classification and clustering analyses have also revealed favourable results for NeuroDAVIS-generated embeddings.

Text-to-Image (T2I) generation is enabling new applications that support creators, designers, and general end users of productivity software by generating illustrative content with high photorealism starting from a given descriptive text as a prompt. Such models are however trained on massive amounts of web data, which surfaces the peril of potential harmful biases that may leak in the generation process itself. In this paper, we take a multi-dimensional approach to studying and quantifying common social biases as reflected in the generated images, by focusing on how occupations, personality traits, and everyday situations are depicted across representations of (perceived) gender, age, race, and geographical location. Through an extensive set of both automated and human evaluation experiments we present findings for two popular T2I models: DALLE-v2 and Stable Diffusion. Our results reveal that there exist severe occupational biases of neutral prompts majorly excluding groups of people from results for both models. Such biases can get mitigated by increasing the amount of specification in the prompt itself, although the prompting mitigation will not address discrepancies in image quality or other usages of the model or its representations in other scenarios. Further, we observe personality traits being associated with only a limited set of people at the intersection of race, gender, and age. Finally, an analysis of geographical location representations on everyday situations (e.g., park, food, weddings) shows that for most situations, images generated through default location-neutral prompts are closer and more similar to images generated for locations of United States and Germany.