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Temporal Knowledge Graph Question Answering: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Base Question Answering (KBQA) has been a long-standing field to answer questions based on knowledge bases. Recently, the evolving dynamics of knowledge have attracted a growing interest in Temporal Knowledge Graph Question Answering (TKGQA), an emerging task to answer temporal questions. However, this field grapples with ambiguities in defining temporal questions and lacks a systematic categorization of existing methods for TKGQA. In response, this paper provides a thorough survey from two perspectives: the taxonomy of temporal questions and the methodological categorization for TKGQA. Specifically, we first establish a detailed taxonomy of temporal questions engaged in prior studies. Subsequently, we provide a comprehensive review of TKGQA techniques of two categories: semantic parsing-based and TKG embedding-based. Building on this review, the paper outlines potential research directions aimed at advancing the field of TKGQA. This work aims to serve as a comprehensive reference for TKGQA and to stimulate further research.


Planetary Causal Inference: Implications for the Geography of Poverty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Poverty has a significant geographic component, which has been studied by human geographers and developmental economists, giving rise to techniques such as small area estimation. With the availability of accurate and high-resolution data, it is possible to produce poverty maps that display the spatial distribution of poverty, and this has been instrumental in deciphering its determinants (Gauci, 2005). The availability of high-resolution geographically specified socio-economic data has opened avenues for more precise analysis that target areas of poverty. Furthermore, the accumulation of data over time has allowed for the inclusion of temporal dynamics in understanding the persistent nature of some impoverished areas. While pockets of poverty can be spatially defined, understanding the social, economic, and physical processes that create self-perpetuating geographies of poverty remain a pressing challenge, aspects of this geography have received attention in various literature (Bird et al., 2010), involving spatial poverty traps (Jalan, Ravallion, et al., 1997), crime (Hipp, 2016), and economic aid (Briggs, 2018).


Evaluating LLMs' Inherent Multi-hop Reasoning Ability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in question-answering (QA) tasks, their multi-step reasoning abilities on multiple evidence integration on Multi-hop QA tasks remain underexplored. LLMs sometimes generate answers that rely on internal memory rather than reasoning given context, which brings concerns about the evaluation quality of real reasoning abilities. The counterfactual QA task can separate internal memory from reasoning abilities, but focusing solely on final-QA performance without evaluating the multi-step reasoning process is insufficient for reporting LLMs' real reasoning abilities. Current Multi-hop QA (MHQA) benchmarks are factual and annotated on open-source corpora such as Wikipedia, although useful for multi-step reasoning evaluation, showing limitations due to potential data contamination in LLMs pre-training stage. To address this issue, we introduce the Inherent Reasoning Evaluation (IRE) method, a novel evaluation way that jointly evaluates the LLMs' chain-of-reasoning performance based on the first knowledge-edited counterfactual multi-hop QA data which involves editing the original Wikipedia passages, reducing data contamination risks. The IRE comprehensively assesses reasoning chains through sub-QA and final-QA evaluations. Our comparisons reveal significant performance gaps for several LLMs between Wikipedia-based benchmarks and IRE, deeming data contamination issues in existing benchmarks. We believe that the IRE benchmark will enhance and facilitate trustworthy LLM evaluations.


Data Poisoning Attacks in Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emerging technologies drive the ongoing transformation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). This transformation has given rise to cybersecurity concerns, among which data poisoning attack emerges as a new threat as ITS increasingly relies on data. In data poisoning attacks, attackers inject malicious perturbations into datasets, potentially leading to inaccurate results in offline learning and real-time decision-making processes. This paper concentrates on data poisoning attack models against ITS. We identify the main ITS data sources vulnerable to poisoning attacks and application scenarios that enable staging such attacks. A general framework is developed following rigorous study process from cybersecurity but also considering specific ITS application needs. Data poisoning attacks against ITS are reviewed and categorized following the framework. We then discuss the current limitations of these attack models and the future research directions. Our work can serve as a guideline to better understand the threat of data poisoning attacks against ITS applications, while also giving a perspective on the future development of trustworthy ITS.


The pitfalls of next-token prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this emerging concern and correct popular misconceptions surrounding it, and advocate a simple multi-token objective. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved using a simple modification that predicts multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures


Speculative Speech Recognition by Audio-Prefixed Low-Rank Adaptation of Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores speculative speech recognition (SSR), where we empower conventional automatic speech recognition (ASR) with speculation capabilities, allowing the recognizer to run ahead of audio. We introduce a metric for measuring SSR performance and we propose a model which does SSR by combining a RNN-Transducer-based ASR system with an audio-prefixed language model (LM). The ASR system transcribes ongoing audio and feeds the resulting transcripts, along with an audio-dependent prefix, to the LM, which speculates likely completions for the transcriptions. We experiment with a variety of ASR datasets on which show the efficacy our method and the feasibility of SSR as a method of reducing ASR latency.


The impact of data set similarity and diversity on transfer learning success in time series forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pre-trained models have become pivotal in enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of time series forecasting on target data sets by leveraging transfer learning. While benchmarks validate the performance of model generalization on various target data sets, there is no structured research providing similarity and diversity measures to explain which characteristics of source and target data lead to transfer learning success. Our study pioneers in systematically evaluating the impact of source-target similarity and source diversity on zero-shot and fine-tuned forecasting outcomes in terms of accuracy, bias, and uncertainty estimation. We investigate these dynamics using pre-trained neural networks across five public source datasets, applied to forecasting five target data sets, including real-world wholesales data. We identify two feature-based similarity and diversity measures, finding that source-target similarity reduces forecasting bias, while source diversity improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty estimation, but increases the bias.


Improving Low-Resource Knowledge Tracing Tasks by Supervised Pre-training and Importance Mechanism Fine-tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to estimate student's knowledge mastery based on their historical interactions. Recently, the deep learning based KT (DLKT) approaches have achieved impressive performance in the KT task. These DLKT models heavily rely on the large number of available student interactions. However, due to various reasons such as budget constraints and privacy concerns, observed interactions are very limited in many real-world scenarios, a.k.a, low-resource KT datasets. Directly training a DLKT model on a low-resource KT dataset may lead to overfitting and it is difficult to choose the appropriate deep neural architecture. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a low-resource KT framework called LoReKT to address above challenges. Inspired by the prevalent "pre-training and fine-tuning" paradigm, we aim to learn transferable parameters and representations from rich-resource KT datasets during the pre-training stage and subsequently facilitate effective adaptation to low-resource KT datasets. Specifically, we simplify existing sophisticated DLKT model architectures with purely a stack of transformer decoders. We design an encoding mechanism to incorporate student interactions from multiple KT data sources and develop an importance mechanism to prioritize updating parameters with high importance while constraining less important ones during the fine-tuning stage. We evaluate LoReKT on six public KT datasets and experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of AUC and Accuracy. To encourage reproducible research, we make our data and code publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LoReKT-C619.


Transformer-Lite: High-efficiency Deployment of Large Language Models on Mobile Phone GPUs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Large Language Model (LLM) is widely employed for tasks such as intelligent assistants, text summarization, translation, and multi-modality on mobile phones. However, the current methods for on-device LLM deployment maintain slow inference speed, which causes poor user experience. To facilitate high-efficiency LLM deployment on device GPUs, we propose four optimization techniques: (a) a symbolic expression-based approach to support dynamic shape model inference; (b) operator optimizations and execution priority setting to enhance inference speed and reduce phone lagging; (c) an FP4 quantization method termed M0E4 to reduce dequantization overhead; (d) a sub-tensor-based technique to eliminate the need for copying KV cache after LLM inference. Furthermore, we implement these methods in our mobile inference engine, Transformer-Lite, which is compatible with both Qualcomm and MTK processors. We evaluated Transformer-Lite's performance using LLMs with varied architectures and parameters ranging from 2B to 14B. Specifically, we achieved prefill and decoding speeds of 121 token/s and 14 token/s for ChatGLM2 6B, and 330 token/s and 30 token/s for smaller Gemma 2B, respectively. Compared with CPU-based FastLLM and GPU-based MLC-LLM, our engine attains over 10x speedup for the prefill speed and 2~3x speedup for the decoding speed.


NADI 2024: The Fifth Nuanced Arabic Dialect Identification Shared Task

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We describe the findings of the fifth Nuanced Arabic Dialect Identification Shared Task (NADI 2024). NADI's objective is to help advance SoTA Arabic NLP by providing guidance, datasets, modeling opportunities, and standardized evaluation conditions that allow researchers to collaboratively compete on pre-specified tasks. NADI 2024 targeted both dialect identification cast as a multi-label task (Subtask~1), identification of the Arabic level of dialectness (Subtask~2), and dialect-to-MSA machine translation (Subtask~3). A total of 51 unique teams registered for the shared task, of whom 12 teams have participated (with 76 valid submissions during the test phase). Among these, three teams participated in Subtask~1, three in Subtask~2, and eight in Subtask~3. The winning teams achieved 50.57 F\textsubscript{1} on Subtask~1, 0.1403 RMSE for Subtask~2, and 20.44 BLEU in Subtask~3, respectively. Results show that Arabic dialect processing tasks such as dialect identification and machine translation remain challenging. We describe the methods employed by the participating teams and briefly offer an outlook for NADI.