Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show that shifts in semantic embedding space can be causally linked to financial market shocks -- deviations from the expected market behaviour. Furthermore, we show how partisanship can influence the predictive power of text for market fluctuations and shape reactions to those same shocks. We also provide some evidence that text-based signals are particularly salient during unexpected events such as COVID-19, highlighting the value of language data as an exogenous variable in economic forecasting. Our findings underscore the bidirectional relationship between news outlets and market shocks, offering a novel empirical approach to studying their effect on each other.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a prominent approach for eliciting truthful answers from large language models (LLMs). To date, information-based and consistency-based UQ have been the dominant UQ methods for text generation via LLMs. Density-based methods, despite being very effective for UQ in text classification with encoder-based models, have not been very successful with generative LLMs. In this work, we adapt Mahalanobis Distance (MD) - a well-established UQ technique in classification tasks - for text generation and introduce a new supervised UQ method. Our method extracts token embeddings from multiple layers of LLMs, computes MD scores for each token, and uses linear regression trained on these features to provide robust uncertainty scores. Through extensive experiments on eleven datasets, we demonstrate that our approach substantially improves over existing UQ methods, providing accurate and computationally efficient uncertainty scores for both sequence-level selective generation and claim-level fact-checking tasks. Our method also exhibits strong generalization to out-of-domain data, making it suitable for a wide range of LLM-based applications.

The prevalence of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) raises important questions about privacy in an era where visual information is increasingly available. While foundation VLMs demonstrate broad knowledge and learned capabilities, we specifically investigate their ability to infer geographic location from previously unseen image data. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset collected from Google Street View that represents its global distribution of coverage. Foundation models are evaluated on single-image geolocation inference, with many achieving median distance errors of <300 km. We further evaluate VLM "agents" with access to supplemental tools, observing up to a 30.6% decrease in distance error. Our findings establish that modern foundation VLMs can act as powerful image geolocation tools, without being specifically trained for this task. When coupled with increasing accessibility of these models, our findings have greater implications for online privacy. We discuss these risks, as well as future work in this area.

Recent advances in natural language processing have raised expectations for generative models to produce coherent text across diverse language varieties. In the particular case of the Portuguese language, the predominance of Brazilian Portuguese corpora online introduces linguistic biases in these models, limiting their applicability outside of Brazil. To address this gap and promote the creation of European Portuguese resources, we developed a cross-domain language variety identifier (LVI) to discriminate between European and Brazilian Portuguese. Motivated by the findings of our literature review, we compiled the PtBrVarId corpus, a cross-domain LVI dataset, and study the effectiveness of transformer-based LVI classifiers for cross-domain scenarios. Although this research focuses on two Portuguese varieties, our contribution can be extended to other varieties and languages. We open source the code, corpus, and models to foster further research in this task.

Despite the impressive performance of multilingual large language models (mLLMs) in various natural language processing tasks, their ability to understand procedural texts, particularly those with culture-specific content, remains largely unexplored. Texts describing cultural procedures, including rituals, traditional craftsmanship, and social etiquette, require an inherent understanding of cultural context, presenting a significant challenge for mLLMs. In this work, we introduce CAPTex, a benchmark designed to evaluate mLLMs' ability to process and reason about culturally diverse procedural texts across multiple languages using various methodologies to assess their performance. Our findings indicate that (1) mLLMs face difficulties with culturally contextualized procedural texts, showing notable performance declines in low-resource languages, (2) model performance fluctuates across cultural domains, with some areas presenting greater difficulties, and (3) language models exhibit better performance on multiple-choice tasks within conversational frameworks compared to direct questioning. These results underscore the current limitations of mLLMs in handling culturally nuanced procedural texts and highlight the need for culturally aware benchmarks like CAPTex to enhance their adaptability and comprehension across diverse linguistic and cultural landscapes.

Birth weight serves as a fundamental indicator of neonatal health, closely linked to both early medical interventions and long-term developmental risks. Traditional predictive models, often constrained by limited feature selection and incomplete datasets, struggle to achieve overlooking complex maternal and fetal interactions in diverse clinical settings. This research explores machine learning to address these limitations, utilizing a structured methodology that integrates advanced imputation strategies, supervised feature selection techniques, and predictive modeling. Given the constraints of the dataset, the research strengthens the role of data preprocessing in improving the model performance. Among the various methodologies explored, tree-based feature selection methods demonstrated superior capability in identifying the most relevant predictors, while ensemble-based regression models proved highly effective in capturing non-linear relationships and complex maternal-fetal interactions within the data. Beyond model performance, the study highlights the clinical significance of key physiological determinants, offering insights into maternal and fetal health factors that influence birth weight, offering insights that extend over statistical modeling. By bridging computational intelligence with perinatal research, this work underscores the transformative role of machine learning in enhancing predictive accuracy, refining risk assessment and informing data-driven decision-making in maternal and neonatal care. Keywords: Birth weight prediction, maternal-fetal health, MICE, BART, Gradient Boosting, neonatal outcomes, Clinipredictive.

Generative large language models (LLMs) have been demonstrated to have gaps in diverse, cultural knowledge across the globe. We investigate the effect of retrieval augmented generation and search-grounding techniques on the ability of LLMs to display familiarity with a diverse range of national cultures. Specifically, we compare the performance of standard LLMs, LLMs augmented with retrievals from a bespoke knowledge base (i.e., KB grounding), and LLMs augmented with retrievals from a web search (i.e., search grounding) on a series of cultural familiarity benchmarks. We find that search grounding significantly improves the LLM performance on multiple-choice benchmarks that test propositional knowledge (e.g., the norms, artifacts, and institutions of national cultures), while KB grounding's effectiveness is limited by inadequate knowledge base coverage and a subopti-mal retriever. However, search grounding also increases the risk of stereotypical judgments by language models, while failing to improve evaluators' judgments of cultural familiarity in a human evaluation with adequate statistical power. These results highlight the distinction between propositional knowledge about a culture and open-ended cultural fluency when it comes to evaluating the cultural familiarity of generative LLMs.

In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised transfer learning method called Distribution Matching (DM), which drives the representation distribution toward a predefined reference distribution while preserving augmentation invariance. The design of DM results in a learned representation space that is intuitively structured and offers easily interpretable hyperparameters. Experimental results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation metrics demonstrate that DM performs competitively on target classification tasks compared to existing self-supervised transfer learning methods. Additionally, we provide robust theoretical guarantees for DM, including a population theorem and an end-to-end sample theorem. The population theorem bridges the gap between the self-supervised learning task and target classification accuracy, while the sample theorem shows that, even with a limited number of samples from the target domain, DM can deliver exceptional classification performance, provided the unlabeled sample size is sufficiently large.

Over the weekend, Facebook owner Meta announced "Project Waterworth," an ambitious plan to build out a globe-spanning, 31,000-mile subsea internet cable. That's longer from end to end than the circumference of the Earth. When completed, the massive cable is expected to connect the US, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other regions along the route. The project represents the latest push by Big Tech companies to control a greater share of subsea cable infrastructure. That general shift in who maintains the internet's "pipes" could shift even further with the heightened data demands introduced by competition over advanced AI.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in generating human-like text and solving reasoning tasks of moderate complexity, such as question-answering and mathematical problem-solving. However, their capabilities in tasks requiring deeper cognitive skills, such as common-sense understanding and abstract reasoning, remain under-explored. In this paper, we systematically evaluate abstract common-sense reasoning in LLMs using the ConceptNet knowledge graph. We propose two prompting approaches: instruct prompting, where models predict plausible semantic relationships based on provided definitions, and few-shot prompting, where models identify relations using examples as guidance. Our experiments with the gpt-4o-mini model show that in instruct prompting, consistent performance is obtained when ranking multiple relations but with substantial decline when the model is restricted to predicting only one relation. In few-shot prompting, the model's accuracy improves significantly when selecting from five relations rather than the full set, although with notable bias toward certain relations. These results suggest significant gaps still, even in commercially used LLMs' abstract common-sense reasoning abilities, compared to human-level understanding. However, the findings also highlight the promise of careful prompt engineering, based on selective retrieval, for obtaining better performance.